Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
Hahahahahahaha… hahahahaha… ahem
It's one thing to lose but to do so while engaging in a battle of wits with Aaron Woods would be grossly unbecoming. So it's a good thing Billy Slater’s Maroons won, ending a media cycle about the stupid things he said in an intellectual exchange that demeaned everyone in earshot by the sheer power of its inanity.
By sending out an even worse team than game 1, the Maroons sprung the ultimate ambush. They used the Blues’ biggest weaknesses - their endless arrogance and complete misunderstanding of Origin - against them, pulling off the heist of the century. Yes, it can still be a heist if the manager leaves the bank vault open and the guard is asleep. The Lufthansa heist claimed nearly $6 million without a single shot being fired. Not everything has to be Ocean’s 8, 11, 12 or 13.
To that end, we should probably thank the Blues, the oh so sleepy security guards and inept bank managers of State of Origin. The Maroons really only had one path to victory and that was if the Blues a) assumed they had won before kickoff and b) then still managed to play like they were unfamiliar with both the rules and the concept of rain. Pre-game, that seemed unlikely in the extreme but New South Wales duly flew all the way to Perth and decided to serve that up. Even then, the Blues still nearly overhauled a 20 point deficit in one half. Crucially, while I was deciding whether to compare the glory of this victory to Cannae or Teutoburg Forest, they didn’t quite get there.
The Blues had more tries, more ball, better completions, more metres and fewer errors and still managed to lose. Their forwards threatened to cave in Queensland’s collective skull in the middle of the field. The backs were slicker, could defuse a kick and weren’t Robert Toia or Val Holmes. It would have been so easy to win. Lomax just had to make his conversions. They could have gone left on either of their last two red zone visits, which Queensland absolutely had no chance of stopping. Daley could have picked a fit halfback and not-an-overrated-dipshit for five-eighth. Fewer penalties and then not compounding those with errors would have kept the Maroons off the board. It was right there for the taking and yet just out of reach.
Any number of exits were available from this exact scenario and NSW took none of them, hurtling towards the scene of the accident at a terrifying speed. Liam Martin had a grin that turned into a grimace when he realised he was in the passenger seat. Spencer Leniu was the perfect embodiment of his team’s attitude: a huge amount of hype followed by 29 minutes, 7 runs, 3 missed tackles and almost causing Mat Thompson to choke to death on the call when he got bumped off by Lindsay Collins.
That’s some real character. That’s trusting the process. You gotta hand it to them. So brave.
The Maroons looked about as bad as expected but won this with less of the usual maroon magic and more by getting marks for attendance. Also, Kurt Capewell wasn’t a disaster - well done, champ. That counterpart of the Queensland spirit, the Blues have reached something of a nirvana of pants pissing incompetence that, despite the structural, talent and tactical advantages handed to them, they can’t even get a series sweep right. It’s not very Origin. That’s not even soccer.
Encouraged by this win, the team will be unchanged going into game 3 and is still led by a man out of his depth but at least Queensland now get to lose the series with some dignity. Haha… unless…?
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This is a Dolphins newsletter now
It has to be said that it was looking pretty grim around the Queensland rugby league traps as recently as two weeks ago. The women’s Origin defence collapsed. The Broncos, Cowboys and Titans were and are all on struggle street. The men’s series looked like a foregone washed conclusion.
With last night’s win and the Dolphins exploding into a million points per game, things are looking somewhat sunnier in the Sunshine State. I could describe the shape of the Dolphins’ season but I’ll defer to line go up:
Bodies have been falling by the wayside as those lines rose. Flegler’s status remains unknowable. Gilbert’s done his shoulder, after effectively spending two seasons on the sidelines, and Saifiti has done likewise, both out for the year. Plath’s probably suffered an ACL tear but no one seems to have confirmed that. Now Kaufusi, who had found a wellspring of aggression somewhere in his aging frame, is suspended for two weeks.
For a team that has been a couple of good forwards short of winning records and a couple of injury crises shy of the finals in their first two seasons, to lose several blue chip forwards, again, starts to look less like misfortune and more like carelessness.
And yet, line goes up. After a slow opening month, the points and the wins have started rolling in and the Dolphins are now the NRL’s form team. The Phins now have the second best attack to go with the second best defence in the league. Dolphins are all over the Dude 200 list of top players by Wins Above Reserve Grade, with four of the top ten (Farnworth, Lemuelu, Katoa and Kerr), all of which was posted in Stats Drop earlier in the week:
Continuation of this run should see them finish 14-10 - their schedule is very light on good teams (3.5 out of 10 matches) in the back half after a very slow start in the front half - which would still be a couple of wins short of their Pythagorean expectation but would guarantee them a first finals appearance.
More important than the stats is that Redcliffe look like they could keep doing this all day. There’s always someone there to do a job, whether its the halves getting the ball where it needs to go or the effectiveness of the second row or the home brand middles making their presence felt. Even without Plath oiling the machine, being there to do the job is 90% of the battle. Some part of the remainder is giving up on Tabuai-Fidow sweep plays and teaching Farnworth to pass.
While I’ve tended to get overexcited about the prospects of bad Queensland teams in the absence of anything else to talk about (see also: Cowboys in 2023 and 2025), the competition is so poor this year that I’m pretty sure we’ll see a 2021 Titans sneak into the finals. If that’s the case, the Dolphins only need to go .500 the rest of the way home to finish in the top eight.
Anything less than that would be a disappointment. Anything more would be house money.
Around the grounds
Titans 28 defeated Seagles 8. When I tuned it at 16-4, I figured I hadn't missed much and the real entertainment would be watching Gold Coast blow a dozen point lead. To the Titans’ credit, they capitalised on the truly awful performance from Manly that we've been waiting for. For the the deeply unserious stuff the Cowboys cop, the Sea Eagles don't get nearly enough (possibly because they beat the Cowboys). This changes exactly nothing about the Titans' prospects but it may stave off Hasler's firing for a bit if the team looks like it still cares. Given the Titans’ depth at the position, Chris Randall should not be in the second row.
Blackhawks 28 defeated Bears 26. 2023 was the year of Fuck The Blackhawks but we’re all-in in 2025. There’s a heap to like about their attitude - they have plenty of guts and belief - and their lineup, even without Jack Campagnolo. It’s a shame this wasn't the feature game (I didn’t choose these comms in my split screening) as it felt like you couldn’t really look away. This was a hard fought, hand-to-hand melee, rather than stately ships of the line firing long range salvos at each other (Falcons-Hunters being a slightly scrappier version of this naval metaphor). Burleigh are very good and played the game with high energy but that was exhausted by the last quarter hour, with not enough left in the tank to repel the Blackhawks (and their masterful chewing of the clock). This feels like a callback to a familiar refrain from last year. Dudley Dotoi played an excellent game, except for the bits involving a high ball. Biondi-Odo is already criminally underrated. James Tamou still has it. The Bears celebrated their wins through the match, the Blackhawks reserved that for full time.
Tigers 26 defeated Pride 16 (W). This was a slow game, with plenty of penalties and errors. Defensive lapses were on both sides with a few tries being scored by a simple going through the hands for the attacking team to find the defensive side hadn’t slid and there was a yawning space to scoot into the goal area. Pride took an early lead with their big bodies. Despite that, the Tigers looked like the more polished team and weren’t behind for long. Easts’ middle muscled up in the period before halftime and really got in the faces of the Pride. The Tigers centre pairing of Tunufai and Gesa looked strong. Northern got aggressive towards the end to no particular avail because they were stuck down their own end.
Dolphins 58 defeated Cowboys 4. I briefly considered an emergency edition of the Bovine Bulletin to advise that august publication was shutting down for the year after the failure of the Todd Payten referendum but that seemed like too much work, which I think is perfectly appropriate. This was an historically dreadful performance from the Cowboys. No defence, no offence, just a welcome matt laid out by 17 anonymous souls for the visiting team to come and help themselves. While North Queensland were particularly hit with Origin and suspensions and whatever other excuses, it was a 5-goddamn-4 point loss. This has to be the beginning of the end of Todd Payten’s tenure.
Magpies 38 defeated Wynnum 10 (W). April Ngatupuna is back and she’s picked up where she and Souths Logan left off in 2023. Plenty of big bodies smashed their way through the Wynnum line time and time again. The Seagulls seemed to have assembled a team of athletic looking players, which is not what this competition is about. The obsession with small mobile forwards comes unstuck again. Wynnum also struggled to land a combination or make a tackle or hold the ball - surely we’ll see better than this later in the season. The commentators called this the first game of rugby league for Tori Groves Little, apparently a AFLWer, except for the five she played last year? Not a lot of heft about her but plenty of boot and speed. Otherwise, Karina Brown was pretty good on comms.
Wynnum 33 defeated Magpies 20 (M). Souths Logan opened the game with some intensity and a heap of possession but I think we all knew that wouldn’t last. The composition of the spine is not working for the Mags for the full 80. Milford hasn’t really got a standing around, pointing, and not running licence, as much he’d like and is claiming it. Siegwalt isn’t the threat he was at Redcliffe. Really dunno about Aubrey, although I guess he's only temporary. Hunt keeps playing multiple hookers. The forwards aren’t doing anyone any favours - not so easy without Ben Te Kura. Mostly, the team really can’t defend and it’s just too easy to isolate players with unfavourable matchups. Jaydn Hunt shouldn’t be finding this much joy. Wynnum have their own deficiencies but the Magpies offered them too many opportunities and the Segulls kept the opposition at arm’s length for most of the second half. 33-20 is not a Scorigami but the only other time it occurred, in 1998, also involved the Magpies.
We continue #SelwynWatch and remain unimpressed with his brief efforts at centre and sometime fill-in at wing (Wynnum’s backline shuffles were weird, presumably to cover for Ronald Philitoga’s absence), as at fullback, except for that guy he killed in one tackle and the aerial put down. Two great highlights in an otherwise anonymous performance seems like the least he could do.
Falcons 18 defeated Hunters 16. Thallon Peters took 30 seconds to concede a dumb, violent penalty but otherwise, the Peregrine Falcons are back. Striking long range and at speed, the Hunters struggled to keep a lid on Sunshine Coast’s offence. They threw everything they had at the Falcons in the closing stages of the match but after a dubious call back on a try and a penalty blown in the Falcons’ favour after dropping the ball after a set restart, the resulting penalty took the air out of the balloon. Voro gets better every week, as long as he isn’t defending a scrum play. Special call out to veteran Ila Alu for dishing out a few bone crunchers. Not sure if the local broadcaster is experimenting with fake crowd noise but the locals sounded especially invested in this one.
Intermission
Pete’s Power Grab
Sure:
The ARL Commission has taken the extraordinary step of giving itself the power to charge players for offences on the field.
The commission informed the clubs on Monday night of their new powers, which they claim are designed to safeguard fairness to clubs and players, and enhance player safety.
It means that the ARL Commission can charge a player who has been cleared by the match review committee if they believe the offence should be sent to the judiciary.
A few years ago this would have sent me in apoplexy: “Fascist dictator”, “Peter the Great the Short”, things of that nature. Now, with two kids and significantly more tired and aged, I just don’t have the energy. Also, we’re getting a real good look at the descent from functioning democracy to unstable fascism to World War III and it’s not that funny or something I particularly enjoy thinking about, even at this distance.
Partly the lack of frustration is because PVL is a lot less gung-ho than he once was. Let’s be clear that he hasn’t learned any lessons, will use this power once, get absolutely hosed for it and then we’ll never hear about it again. Previously, it would take two or three hosings before he got the message and then he’d tell us it was somehow our fault he was a maniac. Either way, the system has checks and balances.
And partly it is because that’s because the judiciary system has never made any sense to me. Spinning a roulette wheel would be a far more tangible method of making decisions with the same distribution of outcomes. You’ll note that there isn’t a lot of commentary in this newsletter about suspensions or gradings or whatever because that would require me to learn how that works and I refuse.
Talkback radio has a way of giving you very immediate feedback.
There was Lee Hagipantelis on line one on Tuesday morning, as part of his weekly SEN radio segment, responding after the Australian Rugby League Commission had handed itself the power to charge players for on-field offences.
Good lord, who cares what that loser thinks? Or anyone on talkback? It’s not 1997 anymore.
You then realise the whole thing is a Gordian knot of shit and move on with your day.
Hotseat
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Adam O'Brien
🔥🔥🔥🔥 Todd Payten
🔥🔥🔥 Anthony Seibold
🔥🔥🔥 Des Hasler
🔥🔥 Michael Maguire
🔥 Benji Marshall
🔥 Trent Robinson
🔥 Craig Fitzgibbon
Heads must roll! The fires demand blood.
Upcoming Slate
Blackhawks versus Devils, Saturday 5pm, Jack Manski Oval
If Blackhawks-Bears and Devils-Hunters were any indication, this top of the table clash should be an absolute belter. Both sides have one loss each and are three wins clear of the rest of the field. A win here will go a long way to a minor premiership. Jack Ahearn returns at halfback for the Devils and his only previous appearance in 2025 was Norths’ sole lose of the season. Kaiden Lahrs returns to Townsville in the reserves but otherwise, these are the only changes from last time out. Tip: Devils
Tigers versus Cutters (W), Sunday 1pm, Langlands
The Tigers put up a fairly polished performance against the Pride. Mackay lost to Tweed, which should basically never happen, even if this Cutters team is a rump of what they had last season on the way to the premiership. Until we get eyes on them, we will chalk that up to round 1-edness. Emily Bella has been moved from lock to centre (???). Tip: Tigers
Broncos versus Sharks, Sunday 2pm, Suncorp
So a fresh Sharks team, playing the Broncos in the daylight, with something to prove? That doesn’t sound like a disaster waiting to happen at all. Maguire hasn’t really fixed any of the problems in the team list, other than bringing in Mam and Walsh when they were available, so we can reasonably expect the problems to propagate against non-Titans opposition. Carrigan and Haas will be hobbled after playing Origin, so that takes real sting out of the Broncos’ hopes of standing up to the Sharks’ pack. Tip: Sharks
(Tips 20 / 43 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Read this
The Sportress: Six, again: the Dank
Rugby League Writers: Breaking Down Queensland's Change In Attack
Beyond the Goalpost: Mass changes for mass panic. Counterpoints: it’s time to panic. I reckon Nicho Hynes could do it this time.
Campo: How Blues beat themselves with errors, penalties and bad decisions
Colleen Edwards: Pride on the line as new era dawns in QRL competition
Notes
We’ll have to catch up on U19s Origin in next week's newsletter as I was largely unaware the games were happening until well into the second half of the women's (which I have not watched yet). It feels like these should be scheduled to align with men's game 3 and potential dead rubber, as game 2 usually has enough juice to stand on its own, but I guess the NRL wants a game 3 decider to be the crescendo.
27 September for Queensland Cup and QRLW grand finals, the first Saturday grand final since 2022. Sundays have been the norm since 2010 but all prior QCup grand finals were held on Saturday. Historically, the BRL played Saturday grand finals until 1971 and then switched to Sundays. Personally, I like the change if we’re sticking with the evening time slot for Fox’s benefit.
The Cowboys really shit themselves at the thought of losing Cairns to another NRL team (remember the mooted Cairns base for the PNG team?) and/or the fallout from the Kyle Laybutt scandal: Cowboys boards meet in Cairns. The feds are chipping in $15m for a new centre of excellence for the NRLW team and the Pride.
Rugby League Project is doing a lot of work to record Brisbane’s rugby league heritage, including the Bulimba Cup and BRL results. Once they’re done, I’ll probably have some arcane historical Elo stuff to do. Sling them a few bucks if you can to keep up the good work.
No time for a hose down: NRL double-header poses logistical challenge bigger than Magic Round
Broncos to trial against PNG ahead of NRLW season. Blossoming Orchids is a great name.
Brisbane extend Kotoni, Mozer and Reynolds for 3, 2 and 1 year/s respectively.
Titan till '27: [Jojo] Fifita calls Coast home for two more years
Cas confirm hooker Rimbu's exit. Later confirmed on the coverage of the Hunters game, the Archer of Mendi and reigning Petero Civoniceva medal winner, Judah Rimbu will return to the PNG Hunters. Assuming he readjusts to life in the southern hemisphere, that moves the Hunters from potential also-ran finalist into a contender.
Hagiga Mosby, former Broncos and current Pride, did her ACL two weeks ago and is out for the season.
Called it: James Bracey set to join Perth Bears board. Also, Billy Moore Steps Down and here’s the new big
dogbear (?), ‘We will become a giant in the NRL’: New Bears’ boss reveals his blueprint.Surprisingly, putting “Margot Robbie” as the first two words of the title of last week's post made no difference to the traffic. I received more positive feedback about the Broncos logo jokes. Let this be a lesson about the value of attractive women to bring in sickos to a deranged rugby league newsletter. And yet, how to reconcile this with the sex-adjacent workers and lines outside the strippers on Caxton Street post-game? Two different audiences, one suspects.