Angelic lift provided by Adam Gee
Angelic lift provided by Adam Gee
Origin selections, junior Origins, Dolphins lose, Titans win, NRL18/19/20 Tigers, Coastcucks, Rohan Smith
Queensland 13+
There’s something about the Blues bringing in Latrell Mitchell while the Maroons add Kurt Capewell to the 17-man squad that doesn’t exactly fill with me confidence.
While Mitchell’s capabilities tend to be overstated, both ways, Capewell’s time at the Broncos was marked mostly by inadequacy, capped off by overrunning Nathan Cleary on his grand final winning try. That inadequacy was paired with an annoying tendency to regularly do one single thing that would appease the part of the fanbase for whom rugby league is mostly bright lights and loud noises, rather than a sport to be watched. Capewell is now unable to break into the starting side of a team that just got pantsed by the Gold Coast Titans to the tune of 60 points.
Being generous, the selection is perplexing. Cobbo was dropped for what sounded a lot like performance reasons, but it was much more mealy-mouthed coming from Slater who likes to just say stuff until the media go away, despite Cobbo being among the best on field in game 1 and in 2024 in general. Lockyer would later clarify, sort of, that it was actually because Cobbo was injured. In which case, why not just say that?
Cobbo is named to play for the Broncos against the Warriors this weekend. The same thing basically happened last year. Draw your own conclusions.
Then to bring in Capewell, who is at best NRL replacement level, to provide cover to backline and second row in a representaive match? It’s been a while for Capewell - his last Origin was in 2022 - and while his efforts at centre in 2020 are extremely appreciated, that was the worst Origin team of all time for a reason. It feels like Slater is banking on some Origin magic but you’re not supposed to bank on it. The beauty is it happens, unexpectedly, and that’s what makes you grateful you were born north of the Tweed. Alfie 2001 is the exception that proves the rule.
I am less perplexed by Hopgood’s injury omission and replacement by Felise Kaufusi. If anything, that feels like an upgrade. He might even kill Liam Martin for us (haha just kidding… unless?).
After the way game 1 unfolded and the selections for game 2, I am extremely unethusiastic about the Maroons’ prospects in Melbourne. Barring some insanity, like weeks-long discourse perpetuated by idiot Roosters fans that somehow Sua'ali'i’s technique was fine actually, it seems likely the Blues will have the upper hand in the middle of the field and use that to kick in the Maroons’ door. Their team has been tuned up in exactly right way to go from barely a threat to significant problem, even if it still carries the brave boys of Lomax and Luai and the presumably equally brave debutant Dylan Edwards.
Hopefully, that will be the face slap the Maroons apparatus needs to step up again in Brisbane and seal the series, although by the time you’ve read this, you may have already celebrated Kurt Capewell’s series winning field goal.
Tip: Queensland 13+
The women’s Maroons were outclassed in game 1 but managed to pull back an upset win in game 2, thanks partly to monsoonal conditions and some good old fashioned pluckiness.
Now Destiny Brill has a calf tear, supposedly prompting the promotion of Lily Peacock from U19s to the seniors. Instead, Chelsea Lenarduzzi is named at 17 and Peacock is nowhere to be found on the team list. While I did tangentially suggest Brill should be dropped to make room for Brown at hooker, neither would be a change that is intended or going to make the Maroons better but I at least like that Lenarduzzi has plenty of experience and a little something to prove on top of her total bastardry. A good game here might get her back into the Origin fold with Norris after being dropped for last year’s series.
Emma Paki has kept her wing spot, the only Origin player off-contract in the NRLW. Tahnee Norris obviously sees something the rest of the league doesn’t. I am less convinced, partly because I didn’t realise she had played a bit of wing for the Knights in 2022 and that Paki is only 21 but mostly because she was untested by a Blues side afraid to go to the sideline in the wet. There is a slim chance of rain in Townsville so I would expect she will be probed more thoroughly by Chapman and Sergis, two of the best in the business. Also Emily Bass is named at 19, so what are we actually doing here?
These are potential setbacks but Queensland has overcome bigger things in the past, so the result is far from certain, so we’ll just have to wait and see how this one shakes out.
Tip: Queensland 13+
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The Game: Junior Origins
It's hard to know how to treat these games. They're one-offs, not a series, and that provides minimal opportunity to really evaluate the talent. I'm not going to suggest that someone who is barely an adult that they let themselves, their friends and family, their state down because that would be deranged - as it possibly would be at the senior level - but that also means we're not taking it that seriously.
By a process of elimination then, the junior Origins are firstly cheap broadcast inventory and secondly a showcase of NRL generation next, which means we don't have to care who wins or loses that much. That may sound like cope but I’m also trying to provide some context for what we’re actually looking at.
Observations
The women (girls?) did not give themselves much of a chance. I thought they were in the contest for about three minutes but they’re not going to win many matches with a 60/40 possession split, putting up half the metres of the other side and some plain old bad defence when it mattered.
Montaya Hudson did not have a good game. Ebony Raftstrand-Smith and Lily Peacock are obviously good. Imogen Hei had some nice enthusiasm around the ruck. Would like to watch more of Skyla Adams before figuring out where she fits in the future.
The men’s (boys’?) game had all the feel of a Formula 3 race, with a bunch of young men and their underdeveloped conception of risk throwing life and limb at a brief shot at TV time and consequent career progression. In that sense, it was fun to watch. The Maroons made a huge error in terrible field position in the first minute of the match for the second year running but, unlike last year, recovered and kept themselves in the contest. Edged out on possession and run metres in a way that was not immediately obvious, to finish four points down is not a bad result. Winning would have been better but remember we’re not taking it that seriously.
Liked what I saw out of Coby Black and he backed up for the Magpies on Sunday in what was the second narrowest loss of the weekend (28 points). De La Salle Va’a is an obviously promising prospect who is currently with the Roosters, a headline result of the Broncos retention strategy during the White/Seibold era. Jamal Shibasaki has already played 19 minutes of first grade and its astonishing he’s still eligible for this game given I think he could fill Finefeuiaki’s spot at the Cowboys.
Chevy Stewart is going to take over from Matt Dufty at Warrington. This is not based on facts but is, nonetheless, a fact.
Jaxon “The Boilermaker” Purdue. I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to put that out there.
Around the grounds
Storm 30 defeated Dolphins 24 at Suncorp Stadium. The gamut of takes ranges from ‘I feel’ to ‘I think’ to ‘I know’ as confidence increases, with ‘I was told’ adjacent to that spectrum. With that in mind, I feel that the Dolphins are the team that many want or tihnk the Sharks are. This is not in terms of roster construction or on field play but in terms of ability to take on the big teams. The Dolphins only have one really embarrassing loss on their 2024 resume, in the first round against the Cowboys, and most of the rest have been by a handful of points. Redcliffe have been competitive, irrespective of what was put in front of them, and showed that again in losing to Melbourne in trying circumstances.
Cronulla have the better overall record but have also lost to the Tigers by 26 and were shutout by the Panthers to the tune of 42, along with the usual sprinkling of disappointing losses most sides have. When pundits talk about the two, the Dolphins are still trying to shake off the stench of the back half of 2023, while the Sharks’ failures seem unremarked upon, as if the ascession of the latter to the top four is as assured as the former’s collapse. There are two wins’ difference between them and the primary gap seems to be the Sharks have the capability to destroy opponents whereas the Dolphins as yet have shown a lack that murderous instinct.
Whether the Dolphins finish higher on the ladder seems unlikely but I expect them to put up a better fight against the Panthers than the Sharks did in four weeks’ time. That feels important.
Titans 66 defeated Warriors 6 at C-Bus Super Stadium. The Titans played well above what was understood to be their ceiling, somewhere at the tippy top of the lightning rod protecting the cathedral spire of their capabilities (aided by some angelic lift provided by Adam Gee). The Warriors played below their basement, in a bunker normally reserves for the likes of Lorde and Sam Neill to survive nuclear fallout. The Titans’ defence was neither good nor bad but untested because the Warriors seemed uninterested in holding on to the ball for long enough to apply even the slightest of pressure. Irrespective, and irrespective of how the rest of the season pans out, this is a signature win for the Gold Coast franchise in front of a near full house that they can be legitimately proud of.
By now you’ve heard that this is the first time the Titans have hit the half century, among other historical plaudits. For comparison, it took the Broncos until 1993 and the Cowboys until 2000 to do likewise, in both cases their fifth seasons. The Dolphins have not as yet hit that mark, after barely a season and a half in the NRL, but the QCup side picked up 50+ before their NRL entry in 2022, against Norths in round 15, which is funny given that year’s grand final result.
Argh, they’ve got me western suburbs!
Here are two quotes. The game is to decide which one is Phil Gould in 2011 and which one is Ryley Jacks in 2024. Some identifying information is obscured to make it marginally more difficult.
They are advancing through the growth areas of western [city] at an alarming rate. They have wooed councils, schools, licensed clubs and many of the major corporate businesses in the area. They have local councils and community-based clubs, many of which used to have a strong link to rugby league, now advertising the AFL and [AFL club] brands, their memberships, their sponsorship options and their merchandise. There are AFL goalposts sprouting up like mushrooms. And this, my friends, is only the beginning.
“We’re losing [towns and suburbs],” [person] said.
“They’re the areas our bid is going to target. I think the AFL are going to swoop in there – they’re already in there … going out to schools working for the club, so I see every oval’s got AFL posts.
“I think they’d be mad if they tried to go anywhere else.”
With the benefit of hindsight, Phil Gould’s prognostication in the first quote rings hollow. The Panthers are as big a force as they’ve ever been and GWS is about as irrelevant as any non-A-League franchise outside of People First Stadium. What did the NRL do? Nothing, and it was all fine.
So I don’t find Ryley Jacks saying basically the same thing about Ipswich, Toowoomba, Logan and south Brisbane 13 years all that convincing. There is a small, sub-10k AFL ground at Springfield for Lions training and the AFLW team. This is not one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Whether it is unconvincing actually matters, is a different story because the same bright lights/loud noises portion of the NRL fanbase can also be triggered by notional AFL invasions, irrespective of the recent historical record.
It’s not terribly difficult to work out why, along with quotes from western Queensland’s own Kurt Capewell, Jacks was in the Brisbane Times:
The Brisbane Tigers have entered a bid to capture the region, but the proud outfit of more than 90 years faces stern competition from other potential suitors.
A Papua New Guinea franchise – backed heavily by the Federal Government – appears destined to join the fray, with Tigers’ chairman Shane Edwards telling 4BC Drive last month it was “a fait accompli”.
A union between the North Sydney Bears and Perth is favoured to join a second New Zealand outfit to then round out the expanded competition.
The Tigers are starting to make some noise again, positioning themselves as a western Brisbane/Queensland bid and taking a suburban-where-are-the-juniors-going-to-come-from-we-deserve-a-team? tack. Despite being based east of the CBD in inner city Coorparoo, and calling themselves Brisbane, the Tigers are seemingly drawing a big circle from Logan out to Toowooomba, and possibly as far as Birdsville, as their notional territory.
The only really interesting thing to note:
The Tigers’ bid includes a redeveloped Totally Workwear Stadium at Langlands Park in Brisbane, and building a 12,000-capacity stadium at an upgraded North Ipswich Sport and Entertainment Precinct.
I would love to know where the money will come from for a 12k North Ipswich Reserve when it has no prospect as an Olympic venue and a lot of capital - financial and political - is tied up in that little event for the next couple of election cycles.
Perhaps a 12k capacity is all the funding Ipswich City Council has available - that would be somewhere in the $170 +/- 30 million range if we’re trying to be realistic - and anything greater would have to come from the state or feds. Where’s Albo on this one? Labor gets far more votes in Ipswich than Port Moresby.
Still, I think it’d be less trouble and more effective for the Tigers to just offer to pay the NRL about $35 million for the licence.
Sources talking under the condition of anonymity due to the confidential nature of discussions told this masthead that a Perth bid representative met with Arthur on Monday as part of its push to enter the competition as early as 2027.
Take that PNG.
Yes… hahaha… yes!
I got a lot of grief (some minor criticism) from dozens (probably, like, two people total) of Redditors for using the term “Sydneycucks” to describe rugby league people that pay undue respect to the cultural inertia of Sydney rugby league while ignoring or downplaying the heritage of rugby league in other places, particularly in their own backyards and in the context of trying to gain favour with southern administrators. Apparently, that term is considered distasteful. It’s almost as if that was point.
Now, we have some Coastcucks:
Manly Warringah Sea Eagles are proud to announce a landmark deal with the Gold Coast Titans for the 2024 NRLW season.
In a historic first, the two clubs will join forces in an arrangement which will see the opportunity for players from Gold Coast’s NRLW program play in the Harvey Norman NSW Women’s Premiership each week for Manly.
You’re a NRL team acting as a feeder club for another NRL team. What are you doing?! It’s not just any NRL team, it’s the worst one by any number of objective measures. It’s the one that shares the Ipswich Jets with the Roosters for fuck’s sake. How? Where’s your pride?
Oh. Right.
My word, between the fighting and this, the women’s game has really delivered on the ‘weird shit that makes me cackle in an unsettling way’ front this year.
Mounties, Souths, Bulldogs and Wenty all run NSW women’s premiership teams without an obvious alignment to the current NRLW. Although past partnerships may have existed, all of the current NRLW teams are represented in the WP bar the Broncos, Cowboys and Raiders. One wonders if (expects?) those three will announce similar deals in the coming weeks, which would at least clear up what’s happening with ladies reggies. We’ll have to wait and see if Souths and the Bulldogs stoop to a QLDcucking too.
Better luck next time
Leeds Rhinos have parted company with head coach Rohan Smith by mutual consent after their Super League defeat by lowly Hull FC. After a mid-season transfer from the premiership winning Norths Devils to the Leeds Rhinos, Smith turned around a poor start in 2022 into a grand final appearance. Things looked bright for Smith and presaged a future where coaches are routinely picked up from Queensland and taken direct to the Great North. That bubble of optimism deflated with a middling season finishing outside the finals places in 2023. It hadn’t gotten better in 2024 and the final straw was losing to the English equivalent of the Western Clydesdales two weeks ago.
The northerners pull the trigger much faster on coaching firings than their southern counterparts, being heavily influenced by the rapacious culture of soccer, and so I had started to wonder how much time Smith would have left if the Rhinos continued on their current trajectory, just outside finals but well off the pace of the clubs they should be competing with. It turns out the answer was not much time at all.
Of course, Smith only has himself to blame for not getting enough out of his Man of Steel half, unlike that player’s successes under Craig Bellamy and Anthony Seibold. Said half went on a flexing rampage, outrunning the ageless Matt Moylan for a length of the field try, in the match following Smith’s departure, presumably in tribute to Rob Burrow. We might conclude that Paul Rowley is the greatest coach in the northern hemisphere and is rumoured to replace Smith at Leeds.
The Rhinos took a big swing on Smith, a man who had as much hand in the Devils’ rapid rise from obscurity to back-to-back premierships as any, and this example will probably prevent anyone from doing likewise for a little while. Compare that to the career path of Kristian Woolf, whose rise started with an extremely competitive Blackhawks, before assisting at the Knights (lol, I’d forgotten about the Nathan Brown years), then winning with St Helens before coming back to assist at the Dolphins under Wayne Bennett, all while overseeing the rise of Tonga from backwater to superpower to whatever it is they are now. Smith’s CV looks a little bare by comparison.
The Queensland Cup clubs completed a round of coaching musical chairs two years ago, largely triggered by Smith’s hire at Leeds causing Norths to poach Dave Elliott from Mackay. With Elliott doing a good job at Nundah, it seems unlikely Smith will be parachuted back in that role. There is a current vacancy at Ipswich, which would be super interesting for Smith to fill, both for the potential for on field improvement but also the potential for misalignment of off field personalities and philosophy. Elsewhere and depending on the standards by which you judge them, the Clydesdales are struggling but that is to be expected, the Bears are a bit off their usual pace, and both Tweed and Souths seem to be having down years, the Gulls moreso than the Mags. There may yet be other opportunities, although the QCup hot seat tends to be a lot more lukewarm than the higher grades.
Intermission
It was another immaculate Sunday.
And here’s your correspondent with his youngest child at her first footy game. I think I am finally getting her to eat a pouch of pureed fruit.
Normal intermissions will resume next weekened and it won’t just be a recap of what I got up to on my weekend but there’s just something about sun, blue skies and green grass.
Upcoming Slate
With Origin taking up valuable sleeping time on back-to-back school nights, the meandering quality of both the clubs and the time of NRL season, and the absolute disaster of lopsided scores last weekend in Cup, the weekend isn’t look all that promising for entertainment.
NRLM - Dragons vs Dolphins at Kogarah, Sunday 2pm
This rates only 2.5 stars because of my long-standing prejudice against the Dragons but is probably the intersection quality and competitiveness of the three NRL options this weekend. The Dolphins are 2-1 over the Dragons, with that loss coming in Woollongong. The last rendezvous was a 38-0 thrashing at Redcliffe. While we probably won’t get a repeat of exactly that, what with Origin and the Dragons having improved somewhat since then, you would want the Dolphins to show some of the sustained competence that has undergirded the season to this point as a building block for a finals berth. If not, you can delete all the stuff I wrote above. Tip: Dolphins
QRLM - Dolphins vs Tweed at Kayo Stadium, Sunday 2.10pm
I’m listing this for two reasons: 1) I watched both of these teams on TV last week and 2) it’s the feature game on Qplus, Kayo, etc. Redcliffe’s forwards completely demolished Wynnum in last week’s game and the lesser Phins (mahi mahi?) ended up running up a score because Wynnum’s only riposte was to run the same play over and over again to the point of nausea. Tweed are constitutionally incapable of defending, which is all that matters but they also never really play in a straight line. This could be 60+. Tip: Dolphins
NRLM - Panthers vs Cowboys at Penrith, Sunday 4.05pm
What happens when the least serious team in the league meets the three time champion meat grinder? Lol. Tip: Panthers
(Tips 22 / 44)
Watch Guide
Notes
Jack Bostock extends to 2027. The Dolphins now have a solid enough back five, Katoa and Marshall-King locked down, and Lemuelu and Finefeuiaki form a great second row, so I’m interested to see what they’re going to do in the middle and on the bench. The Bromwiches and Kaufusi can’t play forever but perhaps it will hinge on what happens with Tom Flegler and how Kristian Woolf goes in the top job.
Tigers owner not happy with Hunters scouts picking up his players. I guess rugby league culture is universal.
A bit late but a couple of nice points from Rugby League Writers on the Phins and Cows.
Brains: Female Athlete Becomes First To Be Diagnosed With CTE
Apparently “enforcer” means missing important try scoring tackles and being unable to handle grass.
Some bonus good content
