Another change no one asked for
A lot of PVL garbage but also a lot of footy
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
Prelude: Vlandoball II
Let's preface this by saying I'd prefer to have more evidence but I want to advance an early hypothesis: we are in a new era of Vlandoball.
The first era was 2020 to 2022. The set restart was introduced after the covid break. To ‘juice tv ratings’ is probably the shortest explanation for why but this change was allegedly going to bring back the little man and increase time of ball in play. Insofar as it is judged by those three metrics, it was an unequivocal success. Middles have as little contribution to production as ever in the NRL era and teams are selecting for smaller, fitter players. Time of ball in play rose, except for all those pesky tries causing breaks in play. Several ratings records have been set, although the way this is measured has changed entirely. That's not quite what the administration promised but it meets the letter, if not the spirit.
The NRL doubled down in 2021 and made everything a set resettable offence. Coupled with a hubristic midseason head high crackdown, the season was a disaster. The NRL acted like total losers about it. Despite being insulated by a media apparatus that refused to directly level criticism at the great leader, even the average fan worked out that the set restart had gone too far. Teams got blown out and had no opportunity to get back into the contest. In 2022, the set restart was only applied to 60% of the field and the problem dissipated, even though real ones are still waging the war on bad process and the abysmal coverage.
Then, for reasons that aren't entirely clear, the NRL decided to change the short drop out rules for 2024. Presumably because there should be more aerial contests? Maybe? Would that be a better spectacle? Most short drop outs aren't contested marks but sloppy scrambles but sure, whatever, you can imagine the boardroom at Moore Park where they came up with this: a whiteboard covered in post-it notes, half eaten Subway platter on the table and a bunch of bored people sitting around a table, trying to speak the same language and failing miserably.
This didn't seem like a big deal last year. The change served no stated purpose other than V'Landys and co’s reflexive desire to tinker, a trait not unique to them among rugby league administrators and must have taken superhuman effort to overcome and not make any further changes this season.
But, if you can, imagine a prototypical attacking set before rugby league was ruined and then became much more popular. On the fifth tackle in the red zone, if the team with ball didn't like the look, they'd put in a short kick and try to trap a player in goal, get another set starting about 40 out and have another shot. This could go on for several sets. Even if it didn't yield points, the building pressure could fatigue defences, paying dividends later in the game.
That doesn't happen anymore. Short drop outs were underutilized as a strategy. An enterprising young writer pointed out that a recovery rate of 25% or better would pay off in the long run. If the potential recovery rate is now around 50% and the cost of not recovering has been reduced by about an expected point to not-a-penalty, then it's a no brainer to go for it every time.
So teams willing to take their shots, irrespective of game situation, will find more joy. Every set is a try scoring opportunity and planning for two sets into the future is for nerds like Cam Smith. If any still exist, teams who think you can build pressure slowly on the opposition through repeated drop outs are dinosaurs. They're done. It's strike now or die.
There was plenty of explanatory material as to how Vlandoball had changed the game, shifting from one of territory to one of possession and taking in the character of a boxing match without breaks. I wrote several thousand words on the topic at the height of the madness. Vlandoball II is a new twist, unlikely to be as significant as its predecessor, but it feels of the same oeuvre. While the effect may prove ephemeral, we’re nudging back in the direction of 2021, a place to which no one wants to return.
This conclusion is counterintuitive: if the short drop out helps get teams out from relentless attacking pressure, surely that helps worse teams? Maybe but maybe the effect is more akin to kicking off to the non-scoring team, as Super League did in 1997. It may mean more points but not necessarily bigger margins, unless a team’s attack is broken, and then they lose by 24 or 30, instead of 12 or 16. This is speculation in need of proof.
Broadly, these changes seem to come from an assumed lack of patience on the part of the viewer - as if the rise in dramatic tension followed by catharsis didn't have a tradition that extends back to ancient Greece - and a presumed desire to be constantly stimulated by whiz bang offence. It's another change no one asked for from alleged experts no one appointed.
If evidence starts to pile up, watch for columnists lob out “well, there are just some really bad teams this year” and “the salary cap doesn't work well enough at equalising the league” and “expansion ruined the NRL's depth and here's the evidence [completely inexplicable data visualisations follow]” and probably something about immigrants stealing jobs knowing the Daily Telegraph. One of them will probably plagiarise something I write.
We'll revisit this down the track.
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Around the grounds
Knights 26 defeated Dolphins 12. You can be slow or you can be dumb but you can't be both and expect to thrive, even in the NRL. The Phins were a team that looked like they were stuck in rapidly setting amber with all the creativity of a mosquito. Why go left when your good players are right? Katoa needs to find something other than a fifth tackle bomb, which would be easier if the forwards could get downfield. Tupou and Averillo must be close to done. The Knights have beaten up on two spoon contenders without scoring much in the way of points. When's the parade?
Warriors 36 defeat Sea Eagles 16. Seibold’s plan seems to be to play like the ‘23 Broncos. It shows an abundance of psychological baggage, unable to move from what his ex is up to, and also copying the game plan of a guy who got fired. But because Manly aren’t shit, they lost this game despite being handed two somewhat dubious tries by the Bunker. The Warriors might be 60 points better than the Cowboys on their day.
Roosters 38 defeated Panthers 32. I was really looking forward to laughing at the Roosters losing by 40+ in consecutive weeks. Instead we got a compelling finish, after an hour of error ridden dreck, in which I wanted neither side to win. I wanted an early night. There are three ways to read the result: 1) Vegas hangover, 2) the Panthers have got a season’s worth of bullshit out of the way or 3) they're cooked and their defensive capability has collapsed (just as I said that wouldn't happen). One thing remains clear: Dylan Edwards should never have been given a Kangaroos jersey. Dan Ginnane called this one like it was his first game of rugby league, which is about as good a description of his style as any.
Sharks 36 defeat Cowboys 12. Considering the Sharks looked like they put next-to-no effort into this game, and certainly didn’t put anything special to tape that they’d regret later in the season, and that the Cowboys looked like they had absolutely nothing to offer, then the margin of victory (not reflective of the magnitude of victory) should be concerning. There’s still time but jeez. Does every stadium in NSW run the same playlist of outdated rock? Lame. More to come in the next Bovine Bulletin.
Raiders 32 defeated Broncos 22. Despite how incompetent this performance was from Brisbane, it may pay to remember that the Broncos lost an early season game in similarly frustrating fashion to this team back in 2023. The hope would be that this is the worst performance of the year and that Reece Walsh confronts and gets over his yips quickly. The home crowd spent a lot of time booing, one assumes at the concept of cosmic karma as they got a small taste of their own ruck-slowing, niggling medicine. Not nice is it? So cut it out. Savelio Tamale has a cool name and can’t handle playing the Broncos. More of that please. More to come in the next Pony Picayune.
Bulldogs 40 defeated Titans 24. Part of me wanted to write something to the effect of, “The Titans staged a brave comeback from 22-0 down to only finish 16 points adrift at full time,” but it's not actually that impressive is it? Scoring two dozen on a team that was pretty handy defensively last season is not nothing but it's also nowhere near a win. Gold Coast are who they are. The one time they forced it, they went the length of the field. Jayden Campbell doesn't look like a halfback and wasn't getting a lot of help. Reagan Campbell-Gillard looks like Dr Robotnik and it's distracting.
Sunshine State-wide
I won’t normally write this much about QCup results as I am unlikely to watch this much footy in one weekend again (as you will note, I only half-watched what I did watch) but it is round 1 2, so worthy of celebration.
Round 1 has been rescheduled with three games on Easter Saturday (April 19), three on the weekend of the 10th and 11th of May and one game on August 2nd. Hopefully, the Easter games are a success. There’s usually a gap in the NRL in SEQ at Easter, although both the Dolphins and Titans have home games this year. QCup could fill in but I also understand people not wanting to work that weekend. The Tigers and Magpies played on the Thursday before Good Friday a few years ago and it was great.
Falcons 28 defeated Hunters 6. The Falcons played a bait and switch, with the Storm obviously responding to the last newsletter, and sending north Sua Faalogo, Grant Anderson and Nelson Asofa Solomona in his tenth appearance for Sunshine Coast. Sunny Coast never looked particularly troubled in this. The pack seemed to contain PNG nicely, while forcing their playmakers sideways, and managed to find the gaps to put points on. Intrigued by Gairo Voro for his superficial resemblance to Jarome Luai. Mavoko looks comfortable, Morea looks not like what we expected after ‘23 but there wasn’t a lot of room for the Hunters backs to move.
Tweed 20 defeated Jeremiah Nanai’s Pride 16. I nearly burnt that on Bluesky but I held fast for the newsletter. This was a physical slog of a game, if the gassed Seagulls were anything to go by. Tweed hit hard and played hard throughout while the Pride seemed to absorb the whacks and played languidly, even hungover, until the final eight minutes of the game when they decided to close the gap to something respectable. An impressive team effort from the Seagulls in soggy conditions, especially the big men (notably Jacob Alick-Weincke on the line). Marly Bitungane only got on the board because of the world’s most obvious decoy runner to his right. Jake Clifford has earned a call-up more than Nanai based on this performance.
Tigers drew with Capras 26-all. Knowing the result in advance and having the replay on in the background of writing this newsletter meant I didn’t give it my full attention but couldn’t help but notice the significant number of barge over tries. Is poor goal line defence going to be a feature for both of these teams?
Dolphins 36 defeated Magpies 22. I went to this game and the Magpies were behind by 20 after about fifteen seconds, so I spent more time chasing my kids than paying any actual attention to the game. I was surprised at how short Marty Taupau is in real life. Also, the toilet block was locked for no apparent reason, which is a new low for the Davies Park experience. Lucky my daughter has no compunctions about public urination. She thinks its funny.
Blackhawks 27 defeated Cutters 20. I only caught the end of this game. Couldn't help but notice no one running at Mackay's Finest, Jason Taumalolo? Weird. The Cutters kept themselves in the contest before a perfectly executed 360 to drop kick by newsletter favourite, Jack Campagnolo. Townsville iced the game with a try to McKenzie Baker, winning the Savannah Soiree for the 14th time in 17 editions.
Intermission
I thought this was the best try I saw of the weekend in the Queensland-o-sphere until I watched it back and noticed the last pass was several metres forward. I don't give Tweed a lot of plaudits and this is why.
The NRL is meddling with forces it doesn't understand
Stakeholder kabuki, the process where no one talks to each other in a negotiation except via newspaper hacks, is back:
Sports rights are becoming valuable to streaming services – such as Netflix, Amazon Prime, Google and Apple – but they usually prefer a clean feed to be provided rather than having to produce the content themselves.
It’s one of the reasons the NRL is considering bringing production of its rugby league content in-house.
“That is definitely an option,” ARLC chairman Peter V’landys said. “We have to consider it because some of the other streamers require us to provide them a clean feed. The ones we spoke to last time around, we would have had to do production.
“It will be the same quality as what we get now, that’s the thing. With technology, you can add things. If you have your own equipment, you can reinvest and keep up with the technology. There’s robotic cameras, there’s AI.”
If you read the actual words, this is an option the NRL are considering and not something they are actually doing or committing to or have put any effort towards, other than someone incepting these words into V’Landys’ brain ahead of this media interaction.
Other than notionally to make Fox and/or Nine prick up their ears, which is the real purpose here, bringing production in house would cost a lot of money, which PVL hates, and mean giving up a lot of contra, which PVL loves. As you will recall from 2022, in the one piece in which V’Landys has faced any pressure for his decision making:
AW: Some are saying the difference between the two deals is as much as $260 million per annum. What do you say to that?
PV: No. Nope. And you won’t know until the annual accounts are put through because a lot of it’s contra. They’ve also added the Telstra deal, which isn’t in ours. But I’m not concerned because we will be negotiating. We did them a favour, now they’ve done us a favour. We will be maximising our rights now.
AW: Was it a mistake doing the deal with Foxtel during the pandemic?
At the time, Fox needed an asset on its sheet to continue its viability. If we didn’t come into play, there’d be no Foxtel.
AW: Isn’t that Rupert Murdoch’s problem, not rugby league’s?
If Foxtel coughs, all the codes catch a cold. If you haven’t got them in play, the other parties won’t be paying as much as they should because you need competitive tension. When COVID-19 hit, they were the only ones. If they went under, there was no-one else available.
One would assume now is the time to call in that favour. Ah. It’s almost like that wasn’t what really happened. Oh well, there’s no consequences for lying. Elsewhere:
Now V’landys is poised to deliver a TV rights goldmine, with the ARLC to maximise value by tapping into a global audience via streaming services, such as Netflix, DAZN and Amazon, for the first time in the sport’s history…
“It will be a record deal,” V’landys said. “I won’t discuss specific figures but it will be our biggest ever broadcast deal…
“The strategy of the greatest game of all has paid dividends and the biggest dividend now will be a massive broadcast deal.”
I imagine you can’t discuss specific figures because there are no figures to speak of. The negotiations haven’t begun yet. To quote you:
“As soon as we know the exact number of teams, we will start broadcast negotiations. I would say it will be in the next few weeks.”
Great stuff, just a minor matter of figuring out how many teams will be in the competition. Easy, they’ll knock that over before lunch.
Still, a $3 BILLION HEAVING WARCHEST makes for a great sounding headline among credulous stenographers and the braindead alike. $3 billion is 50% more than the “$2 billion” of the last rights package. Even Super Rugby got 40% more on its most recent deal, so hitting that mark feels more like the bare minimum than any evidence of a great strategic success.
The legacy networks won’t really care how many viewers the NRL brings than AFL if they don’t have any more actual dollars to spend on rights, which seems like a real problem but that problem has been hanging around for a while. The international streamers are happy to pick up content on the cheap but won't pay a premium. Apple TV’s lowball offer for the Pac-12 led to its collapse and MLB’s recent bargain basement sale of inventory pissed off ESPN so much, they are no longer partners. That is probably going to harm baseball more than the broadcaster.
Even then, it doesn’t matter because the NRL can just make up whatever numbers it feels like, announce it and claim all the kudos. There’s no way to know how much they’re lying because of “commercial-in-confidence”.
“The streaming services would want some exclusivity. We will look at the NFL’s model and see how games could be distributed,” he said. “To give you an example, Netflix telecast the Mike Tyson-(Jake) Paul fight and they got 60 million viewers. The beauty of those streaming services is they have a worldwide audience. Disney has come out and said they are interested (in the NRL). The NFL have broken up their products between free-to-air, cable and streaming. They have given a little bit to everybody. So, for five bucks a month, you might be able to watch NRL on Amazon or Netflix. I’m not saying that’s necessarily what we are going to do, but it’s an option. The streaming services are looking at the potential of the NRL and that’s why having a presence in the United States is vital.”
There’s that word again: option. Notwithstanding the mansplaining-level quality of explanation of how streaming works, no streaming service is five dollars a month. No streaming service that would charge that is giving you any fraction of $3 billion. Instead, everyone is going to be stoked by the prospect of paying $40 per month to the three different media organisations that run the entertainment industry so they can follow their team, and the ARLC can buy more hotels to futureproof against… something. Covid nearly bankrupted the game, you know?
As upsetting as all that is, surely never has a more chilling phrase been uttered in the PVL era than: “There’s AI.” It's a fine line between the boofheads that want nothing to do with computers and the malignant morons who don't understand what AI is but are happy to outsource their thinking to it, and it’s not clear on which side NRL administrators will fall. We might be able to ascribe future rule changes to what ChatGPT statistically predicted to be a reasonable-sounding answer-shaped response.
Upcoming Slate
Broncos versus Cowboys, Friday 7pm, Suncorp Stadium
The Big Game feels a little less big than it should this year. That this is a get right opportunity for both teams is a problem. North Queensland seem bereft of ideas and energy and have hit the kind of slump that usually comes for a couple of teams around June, not March, and precedes a coach firing. A big derby might help get that energy up but most of the players look like they’d prefer to spend the rest of 2025 in a cave. Brisbane bottled the game against Canberra but if their pack turns up with some intensity, in front of 50,000 or so of their best friends, then they can mince this version of the Cowboys into a fine paste. Tip: Broncos
Dolphins versus Tigers, Saturday 4.30pm, Dolphins Oval
Wests will be the main characters of this game. I have a feeling the Dolphins will soon be relegated to yard stick for poor teams on the rise, before forgotten for another season, and that seems to fit the Tigers’ profile. Their still-gelling spine of Bula, Galvin, Luai and Koroisau should be thinking about a top eight finish, if this is the standard of the competition this year. Bostock and Finefeuiaki are named in the reserves for the Red Fish, both of whom have been sorely missed. I don’t think we can seriously be expected to watch Junior Tupou again. A few substitutions and a game at home home might be the tonic to turn this ship around? Tip: Tigers
Bears versus Seagulls, Sunday 2.10pm, Pizzey Park
It feels way too early for a rivalry round but here we are with the Gold Coast Derby, the top rated game of the week. Burleigh scored 18 points in the first 20 minutes against Wynnum Manly last week and lost the game 36-24. I am now starting to think I should have made time to watch that game. Tweed beat a late finishing Pride in the Cairns mud with effort and enthusiasm and only just hung on against a team that looked like it had better things to do on Saturday evening. Something about movable objects and resistable forces? It looks like a wet weekend on the Gold Coast, so that might suit the Gulls. Tip: Seagulls
(Tips 2 / 6 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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RL Reads You Should Read
Good stats from League Eye Test: Long range tries, more margin analysis and the best looking boots of the season
Rugby League Writers / Jason Oliver: Breaking down fullback positioning in defence and Round 2 Review: The new-look Tigers spine, Raiders short sides & Trindall taking over
The Sportress: Six, again: Another Improvement
Beyond the Goalpost: Life at the outpost
John Davidson: Featherstone accused of unpaid wages as infighting engulfs rugby league
Notes
Correction: Joe Tapine was not available for the game against the Broncos, which means he wasn’t present to defend himself from my crack at his expense. Some of us apologise for pointless dog shots. Not me. Other people. Tapine should be in jail for giving Reece Walsh brain damage for no good reason.
WC2026 final qualifications: France will host Jamaica in Albi on October 25, while Cook Islands will meet South Africa in an RLWC2026 qualifier to be hosted by the ARLC alongside the Pacific Championships. Would be much more interesting to force-qualify Jamaica over the Cook Islands. The “World” Cup doesn’t need another Pacific team. Remember the mooted World Series? What happened to that? Oh, did the IRL not follow through on its promises again and developing nations got the raw end? True shock. #GrantOut and #NRLTakeover.
Gold Coast Titans CEO Steve Mitchell not concerned by David Fifita’s lack of action. It doesn’t matter what he said (nothing), it’s never a good sign of having to do this. I also note the attempt to get Magic Round on the Gold Coast. Is there a 50k seat stadium down there we don’t know about?
Coach Mathew Head Re-Signs For 3 Seasons. Okie doke. Not sure why he needs so much tenure but there you go.
Super League: Broncos bash-up: Leeds link to link up at London. The interesting sliver of information is, “It is believed the NRL will be investing in London, with Hetherington their point man in the capital and Adamson working in a commercial role.” Gary Hetherington will leave Leeds at the end of the year, so that’s one piece in place but I would be extremely surprised to find the NRL investing in the London Broncos. What’s the yield on that compared to an outer suburban Quest? But someone has to be stumping up the cash to keep the lights on at the Broncos.
Elsewhere in Super League, Hetherington and Derek Beaumont (Leigh) made a statement via the official website about their coup d’etat. The gist is that the Super League clubs are forming a committee to reshape the game, who will report in a few months’ time, and they’re bringing back repeated fail-adult Nigel Wood to run the show. The RFL is going along with it. I think having Beaumont, who offered to fight twitter randoms a few years ago, in a position of significant power portends well for the future of the sport.
Last Man Standing Take Over Newstead Brewing Site. Last week’s closure of Newstead Brewing sent me down a maudlin rabbit hole, bringing back a bunch of names, faces and places I hadn’t thought about in a decade. I thought I might do an irregular beer feature at the end of the newsletter - getting back to my roots but also there’s significant cultural overlap - but then I spent 2000 words on PVL’s bullshit. Sorry. Anyway, Steven Bradbury is the Last Man Standing. That’s neat.
North Queensland braces for heavy rainfall and possible tropical low. There you go, actual journalists wrote about the weather in the North.
Some good content
The Cowboys scattered around Cup merited actual coverage in News. This is the good stuff:
“It was kind of like a conversation, meeting a friend for the first time after it’s been a while.
“I tackled him and he was like, ‘big Jase, how are ya’, and I was like, ‘going good, Jimmy, how are you?’
“We had those moments where we did get into a tackle and if I was on top of the ball we’d start talking.”…
“It felt a little bit weird because when guys are talking in the tackle it’s mostly sledging, but we were having a friendly conversation between mates during the game,” he said.
“Definitely something unusual but Jimmy is one of the nicest guys that you’ll ever come across and I don’t mind having a conversation with Jimmy during a game.”