Bad Schneider
A dud game to end a dud series
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A very Blues-like series
While we have previously established that how you feel does not matter, the vibes coming into this were seriously off. Queensland were favourites? How could that be? Then, to recap this year's men's Origin series, the Maroons provided:
A very brave loss in the face of adversity
A crushing victory interstate
A bed shit in front of a home crowd
That sounds a lot like the Blues usual, doesn't it? I don't want to read too much into a single series but after last year's annus mirabilis - Origin and two Broncos premierships, which is once again, an experience most fans would cut an arm off for - this year has been more of an anus. Chickens come home to roost. Such is life. Reaping, sowing, etc.
It is easy to be philosophical. What else are you going to do? The Maroons played badly enough, for long enough, to give up an almost insurmountable lead in a decider, going down 18-0, real quick. This was mostly, but not entirely, down to Selwyn Cobbo - I relieve you of your Qobbo duties, sir - and Kurt Capewell reliving trauma from 2023.
Even when events turned more to Queensland's favour, the Maroons couldn't get anything to go their way. Max Plath was offside. A promising play was returned to the house by Bradman Best. Ashley Klein had a blinder, by which I mean he must have been blind for part of the game. Someone check his slips, please, and then find out why he only has a duty of care towards Koula. If someone can explain the brain protective action of wrapping arms, which transmutes a concussion-causing send off into merely three concussion-causing penalties, I'm all ears. Either way, too much Ponga, not enough Walsh. No one played straight. We've seen the ceiling of Sam Walker. Why select Carrigan if not to play him? Slater rode the hot hand and by the time he realised it was cold, and needed to make changes, it was too late.
There are always silver linings. Every Blues fan in the country spent the entire game terrified they were going to blow it. Laurie Daley is redeemed and hopefully will be extended so this battle of wits between he and Slater can continue forevermore. While I refuse to accept the media forcing Nathan Cleary on me, and believe that the Panthers’ success represents an ongoing national crisis, hopefully now that Cleary has DOMINATED Origin, he can go back to his usual cardboard-flavoured rugby league. His hamstrings are due to explode any minute now.
New South Wales will be back to tearing themselves apart next year, presumably around whether Daley’s halftime speeches are now too motivating. They're not really enjoying this per se, so much as they are relieved at not having failed again, which is not the same thing. It doesn't matter how many they win, they still won't get it.
You can wait with bated breath to see what happens but for now, I need a juice and a lie down.
Welcome Martod
Great nickname. Didn’t even make it up, that’s just what he calls himself. The rest of you could take a cue from Martod, instead of leaving all the work up to me.
Anyway, we’ve reached the point in the season where the rate of new subscribers slows down. By now, you’re either in or you’re out on the NRL in 2026. However, the slowdown has happened much later than in previous years, for which I am grateful.
Somehow, there’s still another nine weeks of NRL regular season left before we get to the good stuff. If you’d like any further updates on people who have decided to pay money to subscribe to this newsletter, or you know, rugby league news, you can receive it in your inbox by clicking the button below.
Around the grounds
Sharks 28 defeated Broncos 16 (M). The only observation from this game is that the Sharks are bad. Any good team would have won this by at least twice as many points.
Roosters 34 defeated Titans 10 (W). That unfolded as expected, even if the Kolc binning was kind of stupid. Had Gold Coast survived that and not conceded the Fressard try, they would’ve been within reach but that was only the slimmest hopes to find a route to victory. The Roosters are too good and we may look back on a 24 point defeat as a “good” loss.
Broncos 50 defeated Cowboys 4 (W). The Cowboys got beaten through the middle of the field, which was meant to be where they were strongest, so badly that the union halves didn’t have a chance to blow the game. It looked like women against girls, even if the girls included several Origin-calibre players. That combination of Upton and Southwell is fantastic already. It’s round 1 and all that but could be a long road ahead for North Queensland if they can’t get on top of things quickly.
Capras 30 defeated Falcons 20 (M). Not quite as close as it looks in the final score, this was 6-6 at half time until the Capras worked out that hitting their big PNG boys with the short ball on the line was the key to unlocking the Falcons’ defence. John, Waiembi and Tai all scored tries. Crazy that the best PNG talent in the game resides in London and Rockhampton.
Knights 13 defeated Dolphins 12. I do not understand how Newcastle does it but they manage to bring the absolute worst out of the Dolphins. The Phins could play like the ‘22 Panthers and would still lose to a last-placed Knights outfit. Noting that most of the good players were missing, and that the winning streak was going to come to an end eventually, the Dolphins flubbed their first test. More like Bad Schneider amirite? Time for Averillo to 6 to blow the doors off the comp. I also want it on the record that the ball travelled more than ten metres and Jamayne Isaako is very aware of this rule after the 2022 QCup final he bottled for Tweed in the space of two minutes. Wyatt Raymond who refereed both this and that game, should have been aware of that and given Isaako the benefit of the doubt.
Magpies 32 defeated Dolphins 10. I did not make it to the end of this complete annihilation of the Redcliffe Dolphins. After Byron Johnson went off for a head assessment, the Magpies’ spine was Anthony Milford, Jesse Arthars, Billy Walters and Callum Eggerling, like some sort of bizarro universe Broncos team. Milford and Walters do make a pretty good tandem and score some great tries. I have no idea how the premiers-presumptive managed to fall over quite this badly but they were never, ever in this contest.
Super League highlight sprint, week 17. TOULOUSE 60 DEFEATED CATALANS 18: SACRE FUCKIN BLEU. Anyway, I completely failed to clock the weekend just gone was Magic Weekend from which, of course, the French are excluded.
Robbed of expansion chat
If you’d told me in 2019 that the guy who was largely responsible for ballooning ratings and attendances, regular profitability of the NRL, financial stability for the clubs and had added teams in Brisbane and Perth was this dude…
…I’m not sure what I would have made of that.
On one hand, many of the strategic goals I wanted the NRL to work towards are now within reach, a situation driven by a man whose approach to wearing a tie is similar to my own (poorly). On the other hand, there is the constant media fawning and manipulation, the set restart has rendered the sport unwatchable toxic waste and the omnipresent odour of graft is in the air.
Todd Greenberg, Andrew Abdo’s predecessor as NRL CEO, was a cautious leader. He made what I would have considered all the “right” decisions following the “correct” process but he did not make any headway towards these goals. The idea that expansion needed a detailed study from a Big 4 consultant into markets and footprints is antithetical to V’landys’ pathology of getting deals done. History will judge whether Greenberg was ineffective or just unpopular.
The broad lessons of the PVL era so far are obvious. Good publicity is better than bad. Doing something is better than doing nothing. Number go up means more money and more money is more power and with power, you can do whatever you like. To wit:
The Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC) has secured a record-breaking $5.3 billion media rights agreement with Foxtel Group, Nine and Sky NZ, establishing the largest broadcast and media partnership in Australian sporting history.
The seven-year agreement from 2028 delivers a substantial increase in annual revenue to the game, returns control of competition scheduling and structure to the ARLC, expands access for fans across key markets and creates new opportunities for growth in Australia, New Zealand and internationally.
V’landys gets his $5 billion headline and he claims 95% of this is cash. Perhaps surprisingly, I don’t find this all that interesting. Three weeks ago, it was leaked that a deal was near. Two weeks ago, we saw some of the details. This week, it’s been confirmed without much more information but somehow an extra $300 million was found behind a couch cushion.
The announcement has not generated any excitement, falling flat like so many of the NRL’s recent announcements that have been undermined by a constant stream of BOMBSHELL reports about LANDMARK DEALS in the BRUTAL WAR with the AFL/CHINA. It is exhausting. Haven’t I given enough (metaphorical, emotional) blood to this cause already?
Dating back to the start of my rugby league posting career, I’ve always been fascinated by expansion. It’s where sport and social sciences, particularly geography, intersect. With the entry of the Dolphins and the imminent arrival of the Bears and Chiefs, I had been thinking about expansion and how my perspective has evolved over the years. We had been robbed of the ability to speculate on expansion by V’landys - shock, horror - actually expanding the league. I was three-quarters of the way through a long analysis looking at the options for a 20th team before events overtook the post.
In between confirming that the future will look like the past, the Courier Mail reported:
* The $5.3b deal runs until the end of 2034 and could reach as high as $5.5b pending investment from New Zealand TV…
* A clause has been added for the provision of a 20th NRL team being included by 2029-30, most likely in New Zealand.
Previous reporting had tantalisingly hinted at a tenth match being included in the deal, which would have allowed us to consider whether such a team would be in the Southeast, or New Zealand, or elsewhere.
But nope, it’s New Zealand. This is contrary to Andrew Abdo’s previous suggestion that the competition would not expand again before the end of this deal they’ve just signed, and does not commence until 2028, but Abdo has since departed for Tennis Australia.
I don’t have an issue with NZ2. I would have preferred a Southeast team for my own parochiality but I found that locating a team to be more challenging than you’d assume. Ipswich has the infrastructure and maybe the money but not the population, hence the artifice of the “Western Corridor”, nor the stadium, unless it wants to submit to the LNP or play in an increasingly congested schedule at Suncorp. The Sunshine Coast has the population and the stadium but no one pushing for it.
A second team in New Zealand, presumably in Christchurch following the Cowboys game, makes sense if Sky NZ will increase the amount it tips in, capitalises on the surge of popularity that the NRL has enjoyed after covid and will make better use of the 6pm Friday slot. A South Island team playing Dolphins to the Warriors’ Broncos could be the tip of the spear that sees future expansion clubs dropped in to Wellington and Hamilton to compete with, and then destroy, Super Rugby. All of this is good news, provided the NRL can find some competent people to run the club and aren’t on the hook for ownership of a third franchise.
The one saving grace is that even once NRL 20 is resolved, we don’t have to stop there. 20 is just a number Nick Politis came up with. He’ll be dead soon and provided each franchise adds to the pie and the NRL’s revenue per club keeps increasing - this deal increases from $25m per club per annum for the 16 team league to $36m1 for the 19 team league - why wouldn’t the NRL add more teams? Fan fatigue and lack of available talent? When has the NRL ever been concerned with what players and fans think?
Instead, the expansion chat must push further into the future and become more exotic. Forget Ipswich, Central Coast and Adelaide. Think Singapore, Fiji and Hawaii. It is a glorious future and the world belongs to the Vlando-Leninists.
Intermission
The MAJESTOICAL ibis.
A brief history of Australia at the World Cup
Here is how Australia has gone at the men’s soccer World Cup -
1974: Lost badly to West and East Germany, drew with Chile (finished last in group)
2006: Beat Japan, lost to Brazil, drew Croatia, lost to the cheating Italians in the knock-outs
2010: Beat Serbia, lost badly to Germany, drew Ghana (finished third in group)
2014: Lost to Chile, Spain and Netherlands (finished last in group)
2018: Lost to France, drew Denmark, lost to Peru (finished last in group)
2022: Smashed by France, beat Denmark, beat Tunisia, lost to Argentina in round of 16
2026: Courageously beat the perfidious Turks, lost to the USA, drew Paraguay, lost to a surprisingly equally ranked Egypt in round of 32
Did you notice the difference? Prior to 2026, Australia has been granted an opportunity to be belted by one of the eight nations that has won the World Cup. In 2026, the best team we got to play were the Americans, who were in turn systematically dismantled by Belgium. Disgusting. I demand a rematch against a far superior opponent. If the penalty shootout had gone differently, we could have been roadkill for Argentina, as is our right and tradition. This is too far, FIFA!
Weird that the Socceroos have barely played two dozen World Cup games, and still managed to face France, Denmark and Chile twice each.
Despite the unrelenting chaos of Mexico-England, this ends our brief foray into the world of futbol until the next World Cup.
Upcoming slate
The top rated game of this week is in the NSW Cup. It finally happened. Fold rugby league.
Sharks vs Broncos, NRLW, Thursday 7.45pm, Cronulla
We all expect the Broncos to romp home in this one, so it serves more as a test of what the Sharks have than anything else. They have been known to spring an upset on a more fancied opponent. Chalk up a try for Ellie Johnston on the line but that might be it. Kiria-Ratu will do her best to kick the Broncos to death. Brisbane return with the same well-oiled machine as last week, so will be challenging to contain for a team that struggled with the Knights.
Devils vs Falcons, QDub, Saturday 2pm, Nundahdrome
We’re nearly halfway through the QDub season - how time flies - and the 3rd placed 4-1 Devils face down the 4th placed 3-2 Falcons. The Falcons have not named a halfback at time of writing, so that will be interesting in and of itself.
Dolphins vs Sharks, NRLM, Saturday 3pm, Seaworld
How’s this for a get-right game? In for the Dolphins: Tabuai-Fidow, Plath, Bostock, Cobbo, Flegler. While they are all named in the reserves, I assume at least a few will back up for this, with something of a point to prove. The Dolphins looked short-handed for the first time in months against the Knights, so any impetus Plath and co can provide will go a long way to arresting any slide. The Sharks were woeful against the Broncos and will provide a very similar lineup.
Expansion chat will never die
I have written a lot about expansion teams over the years, including
The Dolphins cycle
BNE2 or On Expansion and its relationship with Brisbane (2020)
BNE2.2: The Gemba Report (2021)
Dawn of The Dolphins (2023)
Conflict on Caxton III (2024)
The Chiefs cycle
NRL18 (2023)
NRL18.2: PNG Rising (2024)
Chieves-tok (2026)
The Bears cycle
NRL18 (2023)
This is why we have to hear about the North Sydney Bears every few months (2024)
NRL18.3: Bears are BACK (2025)
Beardenda (2026)
If you’d like to read more, I put some of the analysis I was working on, on Ko-fi which is also available for one-off tips, if you’d like to financially support The Maroon Observer without getting a full subscription.
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Nickelware
Read this
Eye Test - Did the NRL get a stealth rule interpretation change after Round 13?
Rugby League Writers - Sharks Playing To Cues, Fullback Defence At Its Best & Another Raiders Flick-Pass Specialist
Ant’s Slant - Blues killer was inside the house all along
🎧 Phantom Island - What do TV ratings actually tell us about sports leagues? (US focus but still interesting)
Notes
Wembley crowds fall short of what was announced. The RFL is overstating crowds by 15-20k in some cases.
We talk a lot about the finances of the broadcast deal but is anyone interested in how broadcasting TV actually works? While it is not precisely my area of expertise, it feels like it could temper expectations that the quality of the broadcast is at any risk of improving.
Was his surgery to turn him into an egg?
Some good content
You have to discount about 25% for inflation and you shouldn’t take the numbers at face value but they are the numbers.