Black Panthers vs Blue Panthers
The NRLW is back
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NRLW season preview
If I did a standalone season preview, you misogynists wouldn’t click on it, so it’s this week’s leadoff. You are going to get your dose of estrogen-based sport and DEI and you will like it.
That said, we all know season previews are a crapshoot, so I will attempt to limit myself to a few brief comments about each team, which is mostly based on how many players I recognise.
Broncos should be contending this year. The pieces are there, the other teams are weaker, they just have to get over the preliminary final hump. Just goddamn do it before Brigginshaw falls apart for reals this time. Where is Stacey Waaka? The Broncos won one game without her on the wing last year.
Cowboys should be looking at finals. Having stuck it out with a young squad, particularly in the forwards, that is now hitting maturity, it is the time to start to capitalise. Kirra Dibb is an excellent half and North Queensland have some rugby union convert at five-eighth but at least Tahlulah Tillett is around when that doesn’t work out. Makenzie Weale is officially Origin-calibre.
Titans went from a grand final to missing the finals in 2024 for reasons that aren’t entirely clear - some mixture of luck, poor form and injuries coming home to roost. This year’s version has a great halves pairing, a strong looking pack, a few question marks in the three-quarter line and I assume Chapman can hold down a NRLW starting fullback spot, so it should be all systems go.
Roosters will almost certainly contend. Their next best half option after Tarryn Aiken (shoulder injury) is Corban Baxter. That says something about their depth, as does Mia Wood and Jasmine Strange, both traditionally a winger and winger/centre respectively, forming the Roosters’ second row. “Almost certainly” is downgraded to “will probably”. I hope someone sorts out Jayme Fressard.
Warriors are returning after a five year absence from the league. The supposition was that the Kiwis that had stationed themselves in Australia in the interim would flood home but that hasn’t happened, with mostly homegrown talent making debuts. There is very little NRLW experience and what little there is with Apii Nicholls, Harata Butler and Laishon Albert-Jones. Former Maroon Emma Paki also makes a return to the league after playing Origin but not NRLW last year. I am dialling down my expectations accordingly.
Sharks didn’t particularly impress me last year. They lost to the Tigers in the week before finals, caught the Broncos napping in the prelim and made a grand final where they were down 24-0 at half time. This is spun into a great success (see also: Eels in ‘22) and while they had elite defence, they were as woeful as their male counterparts with the ball. With this year’s diluted competition, I don’t think that will matter as much as I might have thought it would. There’s a pretty good squad and I am fascinated to see what Chantay Kiria-Ratu can put together.
Eels are a club with low prospects, which is strange for a team with three current Origin players on the roster, one former Blues half and at least one U19 Maroon. Tess McWilliams will almost certainly find a start this year. Let’s chuck a pin in the Eels for ‘surprise on the upside’ but also if that doesn’t pan out, then ‘one for the future’.
Raiders were victims of a snapback in Pythagorean expectation last year. In 2023, -33 got them 5-4 and narrowly missing finals. In 2024, -24 got them 3-6 while the Eels finished 5-4 with a similar points difference. Canberra have a good pack with some questions in the back field. It’s hard to get a bead on what they might serve up through the chaos, which sounds strangely familiar.
Dragons are not fielding a strong line up. Racene McGregor is partnered with a child. Teagan Berry can be as fast as she likes but it only goes so far. Hannah Southwell offers the pack something but, again, there’s only so much she can do. We’ll see what the others have to bring the game.
Knights can kiss goodbye to the halcyon days. Hope you enjoyed them, Knights fan reading this (I am confident there is no more than one). While I don’t think Newcastle will be uncompetitive, it’s not going to be a 10-1 waltz to the premiership like it was in 2023. I am not a huge Vette-Walsh fan, and she’s no Tamika Upton, but she’s good enough to anchor this team that also features Clydsdale and Southwell, J. A Parker/Gallagher combo should also offer them something in attack. Is there enough to pull them ahead of the competition? Maybe, maybe not.
Bulldogs, for an expansion team, have put together a decent lineup. I can’t imagine having to replace the coach so late in the cycle will keep things settled but we’ll have to wait and see what dual-hemisphere Dragon, Brayden Williame, has up his sleeve. A bare minimum effort should keep them out of the wooden spoon race and in what is shaping up to be a very large midfield.
Tigers have a very BMD looking bench and will almost certainly waste Emily Bass’ talents. I am unconcerned with Wests and there’s a reason this club keeps ending up on the bottom of the ladder in various competitions.
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Around the grounds
Panthers 8 defeated Bulldogs 6. What Black Panthers versus Blue Panthers needed was more onanistic references to its quality to stop me from forming my own opinion (glad I tuned in, didn't think it was the game of the year), and even less just calling the game. I had more fun watching Leigh 1-0 Wigan. Mat Thompson is going to choke to death on his own spit from a run of the mill hit up one day. These games would normally cop a comparison to Origin but I guess they only do that for clubs from states that get it. Hopefully, if we get another all western Sydney grand final, the ratings will be total shit again and the NRL will boot both these teams out. The Panthers can ball again, I'm afraid. Hey, weren't you complaining about not having enough time last week? Shut up, Thursday nights are different.
Broncos 26 defeated Warriors 12. I am still puzzled as to how this happened because I watched the game but I don’t think I understood it. It seems if the Broncos play like something resembling the best version of themselves and the Warriors play as the absolute worst version of themselves, then the Broncos can win against top four teams. Is this a sustainable strategy for the rest of the season? Given the quality of competition, maybe! More to come in the next Pony Picayune.
Dolphins 50 defeated Rabbitohs 28. If it wasn’t already clear, South Sydney suck and it’s Wayne Bennett’s Svengali-like hypnotic hold on the media, and perhaps a cultivation of a friendship with Peter V’Landys, that keeps the press from mentioning this fact. The Dolphins disposed of them with ease, losing another key player along the way, and the greatest risk was Latrell Mitchell losing his cool and breaking someone’s jaw. Instead, he got tackled without the ball by Aublix Tawha and that was funny as hell. How the Phins keep this going is anyone’s guess but Kristan Woolf is showing some chops.
Falcons 22 defated Clydesdales 18 (W). The Falcons won the first half (and the game) but the Clydesdales won the second half is probably the best summation. While Western had more ball, they didn’t use it as effectively, much to the frustration of some of their players. The Falcons didn’t do themselves any favours, needing to complete sets to see out the game and failing. Plenty of speed on both sides, less psychotic violence than we saw in round 1, but more cohesion and skill for Sunny Coast. The team looks pretty good across the park: Crummer, Pollock (who is going to be a long run pick for the NRLW), Parr and the immortal Annette Brander caught the eye. Clydesdales had their moments. Beardmore has transferred in from the Capras and adds a lot from dummy half.
Wynnum 18 defeated Dolphins 10. Redcliffe had the early lead but couldn’t hold it against the Seagulls into halftime. The second half may as well not have been played because there were only two points scored in the final 35 minutes of the game, thanks mostly to the rain, a recurring theme for the afternoon’s games. Selwyn was missing from this but the Seagulls don’t really need him. Ben Farr is having an excellent season at fullback for the red and green.
Magpies 24 defeated Devils 12 (M). This game went from end-to-end. The Magpies took a four point lead into the half and it was raining when play resumed. Souths Logan played better footy in the red zone. Anthony Milford looks far more dangerous with the ball than previous viewings. He can tie up the middle with his footwork and then the Magpies send it left and can find gaps in the Devils line. This happened at least twice, which is one less than the number of penalties given against the Magpies for dissent. Mano-La-Mamea had a good game on the wing. Dunno about Jack Ahearn but am I keen on Lachlan Lewis (Guy #78 after round 14 with 0.5 WARG)? I don’t think he imposed himself much on this game but the former Raider prospect is someone I have an eye on. I remain impressed with Jordan Lipp and think he should probably be in the halves. Rohan Smith’s system of everyone playing every position means Lipp in the 4 is more suggestion, less instruction. Still can’t handle the high ball though. The Devils took the two down 14 in the last 10 minutes. That’s some late stage Walker Brothers Brain.
Cowboys 30 defeated Titans 24. This game sucked because the two teams in it sucked and the rain that ruined pretty much the entire afternoon of footy also ruined any chance of spectacle here. If nothing else, North Queensland get a four point swing out of the wooden spoon race. The result buys Payten a few more weeks. The Titans absolutely have to fire their coach. More to come in the next Bovine Bulletin.
Intermission
We don't get a lot of Clydesdales highlights so we simply must savour this house call.
Money money money (money)
From Buzz (Christ here we go):
A secret NRL document has revealed the enormous financial gulf between the Brisbane Broncos and their 16 premiership rivals.
No club in the history of the game has become such a commercial powerhouse in every category of sponsorship, membership and marketing – leaving struggling Sydney clubs in their wake.
The Broncos are now earning double their nearest rival in commercial revenue and three times the amount of the Wests Tigers, the Cronulla Sharks, the Sea Eagles, the Warriors and the Dragons.
There’s zero detail about how a presumably commercial-in-confidence document landed in Buzz’s inbox, of all people, or even why such a document was commissioned in the first place, which might be the more interesting story. All 17 clubs agreeing on the same accounting principles for classifying revenue would be something of a miracle and possibly front page news.
To conclude that the Brisbane Broncos make a lot more money than the rest of the league is the least surprising thing you could say about that data. Trying to argue for more economic equality in a league that caps both player salaries and football department spending is pretty typical from a Sharks fan and a longstanding columnist in one of the major papers.
Of course, being an absolute sicko, I scraped the data for my own use. Here’s a graph showing just how far ahead the Broncos are of the rest of the NRL.
The gap between the Titans’ total revenue in 11th and the Cowboys’ in 2nd is about $8 million. The gap between the Cowboys and Broncos is approximately three times that. These numbers must be exclusive of the central distributions, which would equalise things somewhat, and suggests it takes about $30 million a year to put the minimum viable NRL product on the field, or about three-quarters what Aaron Judge gets paid.
Ignoring the Broncos, the revenue streams for all of the other clubs are much-of-a-muchness. The Titans don’t do well on memberships. Souths, Easts and Wests all have weak corporate hospitality revenue but only one of those clubs has a brand new stadium it won’t let anyone else use. For a club in its third season, the Dolphins are solidly mid-table across the board. For a club in the middle of nowhere, the Cowboys are strong across the board.
Naturally, none of this looks at the costs. Operating Suncorp for an average 40,000 crowd is more expensive than operating Shark Park in any configuration, so the more interesting report would be about the margin the clubs are making on these revenue streams. According to the 2024 annual report, stadium operation expenses for the Broncos were $9.9 million, meaning that if we take $11.9 million at face value, the Broncos come out ahead by $2 million on the year. This seems like a lot until you work out that's the Broncos clearing about $4 per attendee. On a ticket that is $60-70, that’s a 5-6% margin and a lot of Broncos revenue going out the door to Stadiums Queensland, Ticketek and Spotless.
Now imagine you were in last place on all of these metrics which is, again, according to a supposedly “secret” NRL document of entirely unknowable provenance. Would you post a hugely embarrassing club statement about an article most people won’t know exists and almost all of those who did, saw a single infographic and didn’t actually read anything? I’d probably avoid doing that, if for no other reason that to avoid highlighting the relatively lack lustre financial streams of the Wests Tigers. That’s just me though.
Get the dog
When the NRL resolved to assemble a taskforce to conduct an overdue review of its salary cap, one of the first invitations was sent to Phil Gould.
There are half a dozen committees that have been, or are about to be, formed to review everything in the game – from development pathways to agent accreditation, all the way through to the NRLW structure. It is not unusual for senior club officials to be appointed to them, to ensure the expertise of Penrith’s Matt Cameron, Melbourne’s Frank Ponissi and the Warriors’ Dan Floyd is utilised.
However, the decision to pick Gould’s brain about the salary cap is significant because few people in the history of the game have been more critical of it.
We can only shudder in horror at what these committees might dream up as “improvements” to the NRL. The V’Landys era has been an unmitigated disaster for the NRL, except for all the mitigating increases to attendances, ratings, revenue and general popularity of the sport.
Fine, but I still hate the set restart.
The tenor of the piece suggests someone (probably a Peter V., maybe an Andrew A.) is pissed off that they’re going to all this effort to hear the brain genius Gould wax lyrical about his ideas for improving the cap, only for him to not turn up.
On the one occasion the committee has met, Gould did not attend, leaving the NRL unsure whether the outspoken administrator will be involved in the process…
This should be music to the ears of Gould, who declined to comment when contacted. For years, through his various media platforms, “Gus” has been providing the NRL with unsolicited advice when it comes to the salary cap…
For decades, the premiership-winning coach has complained that head office won’t listen. Now he has the chance to help make the cap fit.
While this is very funny, the committees are still a worry. Let’s put a pin in that.
Upcoming Slate
Bulldogs versus Broncos (M), Friday 8pm, Sydney
This is the only NRLM game worth watching this weekend. Throw the rest in the bin because if there was a weekend to get into either QCup or women’s footy, this is it. The Broncos pantsed the Bulldogs last time around, one of three losses incurred by Canterbury to date, but don’t have the Bash Brothers up front this time, so that is going to make it significantly more difficult. Losing Walsh to 18th man duties also does not help as a disinterested, unfit Cobbo (or will he have something to prove?) at the back portends a long night if the Dogs feel like inflicting revenge and don’t get a bad case of the dropsies. While the Bulldogs have also lost Crichton, a player that genuinely concerns me, a Walsh-less Broncos is a nothing team. Tip: Bulldogs
Bears versus Devils, Saturday 1.30 and 3pm, Pizzey Park
The top rated games this week will be played back-to-back. For the women, I haven’t yet had a chance to watch either of these teams yet, so I am looking forward to a replay of last year’s preliminary final. In the men’s game, the Devils are on a mini-slump, which I think is triggered by having to slot Jack Ahearn back into the team, which has pushed the entire backline around but not necessarily for the better. This is potentially the game where the Bears overhaul the Devils on the ladder, even though Norths looked untouchable a month ago. Tip: Bears x 2
Cowboys versus Titans (W), Saturday 5.15pm, QCB Stadium
One way to open the season is with a fascinating iteration of the Other Derby. Jakiya Whitfeld and Jaime Chapman head to head at fullback because we’ve got to dick around with the backline at the start of the season before going back to what works, although I was never hugely impressed by Goldthorp, who is now on the Cowboys wing. Lauren Brown versus Kirra Dibb in the halves. Two decent packs, although definitely more skill on the Titans side of the ball. A lot to like and a lot can hinge on round 1 weirdness. Tip: Cowboys
(Tips 21 / 46 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Notes
Supposedly, Nine is bidding for all games with three in front of the paywall and six behind at Stan Sport. Interesting. The only things keeping me on Kayo are NRL, NFL and F1. I watch the F1 on delay, so could just have Kayo for American football season and watch a large part of the F1 season on big deal. Stan Sport will presumably go up to $30 or $40/month partly out of contempt for viewers and partly out of pure spite, so it's not like it'll be a saving, more that it will be unjustifiable to have both year round.
Selwyn’s going to Redcliffe. More to come in front of the paywall in the Pony Picayune dropping later this week.
Bears board announced. Joe Hockey - remember that guy with the cigars? - is one of them. Mark Latham, the only person who continues to even attempt to hold PVL to account - a sentence that hurts to write, is referring to “V'landys' 'lifelong friend'“ who has also ended up on the board for some reason.
“Allocations to affiliates”: are there any more thrilling words to the human soul? The Titans announced their women’s allocations last week, with the bulk going to Tweed and a handful scattered around the rest of the league. Brittany Breayley-Nati playing at Souths Logan, along with three other Titans, considering her wife is the coach, is unsurprising. Takoda Thompson, who impressed me in the U19s Origin, is at the Sunshine Coast Falcons, which is the Broncos’ women’s affiliate.
This week in PNG: PNG anti-corruption commissioners suspended after accusing each other of offences
I recently discovered that Hugh Marks, who headed up Nine during the panic-renegotiation of the NRL rights during covid in which Nine took a shit on the NRL form a great height, was later
firedresigned for screwing his subordinate and briefly (?) held a consulting role in the last round of negotiations between players and the NRL that the latter dithered on endlessly before capitulating, is managing director of the ABC. There has to be an easier way of summarising that. There also has to be more people who could do the job.
Nickelware
The Titans’ NRL North defence is officially over. After going 0-4 against what passes for their rivals, mostly through geographical convenience than any actual tension, Gold Coast do not have enough games left to overhaul the Broncos. Presuming the Dolphins and Broncos do not drop silly games against the Cowboys and Titans, then the title should come down to round 24’s Jihad in Brislamabad.
There’s been some errors in the spreadsheet that puts together the Pyramid Premiership, which are now rectified. Good thing nothing important rides upon this being accurate. Tweed’s lead has finally been run down with last weekend’s results, dropping from first to fourth.
Some good content
