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Charting how running metres have changed the game
Stats Drop

Charting how running metres have changed the game

And errors, missed tackles and other important stats

Liam Callaghan's avatar
Liam Callaghan
Jun 29, 2025
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Maroon Observer
Maroon Observer
Charting how running metres have changed the game
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Welcome to Stats Drop, an inundation of rugby league numbers.

If you’re receiving this by email, a reminder that the Datawrapper embeds work best on desktop, then next best if you click through on mobile and least best as presented in the email.

Long time and close readers will recall that there are a few counting stats that can be ascribed to individual players that neatly and reliably correlate with their teams winning. As explained at the start of the year, these have been litigated often enough that it can stand as axiomatic. These stats are tries scored, running metres (including kick return and post-contact), line breaks, tackle busts, assists for tries and line breaks, errors and missed tackles (the latter two having a negative correlation). Sometimes kick metres matter, sometimes not.

There are other stats that correlate and duplicate some element of the above - hit ups, runs, etc - and stats in other datasets that aren’t included in what NRL.com serves up and on this matter, we defer to the Rugby Leauge Eye Test’s recent piece, Follow this one simple trick to win more NRL games.

Over a long enough time frame, the nature of these stats and their relative values changes. Sometimes this is in response to the changing nature of the game and its athletes or administrators. Sometimes this is in response to the Brownian motion of society’s random walk. Let’s have a look at what’s been happening.

Running metres are a critical stat. Rugby league is a simple game and getting closer to the try line increases the odds of scoring points. Therefore, making metres is a fundamental part of the sport. Cross-checking a scoreline against the yardage battle will give you as good an understanding of the game as any four numbers will. It’s simplicity and elegance remain underrated by the stats connoisseur.

The arc of history bends towards justice, as well as towards greater inflation of running metres. The introduction of Vlandoball I increased average running metres by 100 metres per team per game overnight. That effect dissipated over time but has returned with a vengeance in Vlandoball II, the last three years representing the greatest amount of yards being made in the history of the NRL.

Interestingly, while the generation of metres is at its highest rate, the average gap between the two teams is quite low. Vlandoball I blew that out to historic highs, so whatever re-balancing that Vlandoball II involves has kept the raw production without the lopsidedness, or at least as viewed as a season-long mean. There may be considerable variance within those datasets that we are not exploring today.

The expectation about who is generating those metres has changed materially over time. The share of metres generated by the lock position seems to have crescendoed with peak Taumalolo in 2017 but returned to a more historically consistent ball playing lock mentality in the 20s, more closely reflecting the utilisation of the 90s. Wingers’ and centres’ shares have only risen over time, without much of a drop from the fullback, which explains where the extra metres are coming from to make up the shortfall that had traditionally come from up front.

Less remarked upon is the utter collapse in the front row. The average prop ran for 120 metres in 2000 but now can only manage 113 metres in 2025. Taking into account the overall inflation of running metres, the share of metres made by forwards has reduced by 25% since 2000 and by hookers has fallen by 35%. Not unlike the demise of the Australian-made car in the national vehicle fleet, this recession reflects the changing roles of players: props becoming sharper rams, rather than dull bludgeons, and hookers focussing almost exclusively on playmaking duties out of dummy half, relying on others to advance the ball.

After the fold, we’ll look at a few other metrics, including missed tackles, line breaks and the exchange rate of production.


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