Charting the coaches and tweeners of 2025

In 2025, Ivan Cleary's closest compadre was Adam O'Brien

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Regular readers will know that I find assessing coaching to be a particular point of fascination. This is a mix of trying to understand club decision-making and good old fashioned spite about self-aggrandising coaches justifying their place and pay packet.¹

I set the line for this season’s firings at 2.5 and took the over. While the year is not out, it seems likely we will only get the scalps of Adam O’Brien and Des Hasler. This is a less bloody year, after four firings in 2022 (line: 4.5), three in 2023 and another three in 2024 (line: 1.5). Three coaches lose their job every year on average, which allows a healthy turnover of deadwood that have run out of ideas and allows ambitious assistants opportunity to rise.

What constitutes a “sacking” is a little arbitrary, as is the timeline used for the above. I didn’t include interim coaches finishing their term in office and events like Bennett moving on from Newcastle at the end of 2014 or the Seibold-Bennett swap at the end of 2018 do not count. The reason this chart does not go back further is that I would have to start looking up what happened to individuals to assess whether the coach left of their free own will or were forced out. Still, the clubs that top the list are those that you would expect to see: the most chaotic and the least competent.

Were these justified sackings or the result of unrealistic expectations by management? There are two ways of looking at successful coaching:

1. Is the club in a better place now than before?

2. Is the coach getting more out of the players than expected?

We measure the former by the change in class Elo rating (one rating point change is equivalent to one Thompson), as class Elo ratings go up with wins and go down with losses. The latter compares the pre-season projected Z score of the players to their actual performances (one unit of Z score of outperformance per game is equivalent to one Bax).

Here are the 2025 NRLM coaches’ results:

The tenure of the king of the loser quadrant, Adam O’Brien, is finally finished. It is both funny and galling that O’Brien has delivered some of the best results the Knights have ever had while also outstaying his welcome by two years. While Des Hasler technically got more out of his players than the projections suggested, this was below league average and, worse, the Titans went backwards from a position that was already miles behind the competition. Even for Parkwood, that’s unacceptable.

Wayne Bennett continues to coast on his resume. While Souths were decimated with injury, the old man’s talent is meant to be getting more out of his players than you’d expect. With replacement level guys drafted in to replace the stars suffering a slew of soft tissue injuries, Souths still did not outperform their pre-season projections. This is not the first time this has happened to Bennett and seems to increasing in frequency, a fact that will go by the wayside until it is convenient to a club to start pointing it out. Bennett’s numbers are not terribly dissimilar to Demetriou’s performance in 2024, even if Demetriou managed to cram all of that in before Magic Round.

People, idiots mostly, wanted to wrap Ivan Cleary’s efforts in 2025, as if that man hasn’t accumulated enough plaudits during the dynasty. The argument went that he coached a team from last place mid-season to a preliminary final. I ask, pray tell, whomst put them into last place after 11 rounds? Mayhaps we should assess the entire body of work, including the awful start, instead of applying the Young Principle? While his presence in the hot seat quadrant is more mean regression than anything else, we still don’t have to reward it.

Benji Marshall is an interesting case. His players underproduced what was projected for them but the club won more games. This reverses the polarity of the 2024 season, where the club went backwards slightly but the roster outperformed. Coming into his third year, it’s really make or break time. He landed in one of the worst situations imaginable - a rookie trying to learn the trade under the has-been Sheens, working under incompetents who have been turfed, various other board turmoils, trying to build a roster out of a club with three consecutive spoons - but those excuses, as voluminous and extensive as they are, will only last so long.

Anthony Seibold continues to deliver a replacement level coaching experience at the most mediocre club in the NRL. Cameron Ciraldo remains underwhelming and one wonders how long that Gouldian edifice will last. Ricky Stuart is the new Wayne Bennett, but without the titles, superlative ability or the recruiting attraction of living in a real city. We’ll wait and see if Ryles has what it takes next year. There will be a lot of scrutiny and pressure to deliver something.

For the sickos, here’s the Cup coaching performances in case your NRL club needed a new assistant:

It’s funny to see Dave Penna, someone I had on the hotseat in pre-season, put up pretty similar numbers to Matt Church, who I assumed would have a job for life after breaking the Tigers’ drought in 2023. I feel like the former was due and the latter was hard done by but it seems that the results matter in QCup, irrespective of your resume or the roster to work with.

We might also conclude that Burleigh’s Luke Burt had one of the better rosters with which to work, so his premiership victory is perhaps not as reflective of the coaching situation as the results of Rohan Smith, Paul Aiton, Terry Campese or Mat Head. I still have Burt down as coach of the year because it is hard to go past the minor premiers dominantly winning the grand final and completing a reload at Pizzey Park. Whether Ingebrigtsen can continue to take the Jets forward will be one of the compelling questions of 2026.

I don’t have a lot of insight to offer on the NSW Cup coaching carousel, other than the obvious that Daniel Tangata-Toa got a lot out of what is normally a competitive Warriors operation and was duly rewarded with a premiership, and to note Aaron Payne returning to North Queensland from Western Suburbs, after being given the bum’s rush out of the Blackhawks as part of the fallout of the Kyle Laybutt scandal. I expect he will pop up somewhere in the Cowboys system.

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Oatesian Tweeners

Before the NRLW season started, I spotted the Roosters’ starting second row for round 1 were a pair of wingers. Over the course of the season, the Broncos also moved Lauren Dam, career centre/winger, to the second row, and Bree Spreadborough, mostly a back, to lock.

Is that enough to call it a trend? Did Corey Oates, who claimed he wanted to play second row but played his entire career on the wing, start a movement? This transition doesn’t follow the usual rugby league spectrum of wing to centre to edge forward to middle forward, changing size and speed in inverse proportion along the line.² We see moves to adjacent positions regularly but moving from wing to edge misses a station.

That’s weird and intriguing but it also makes sense. There’s a dearth of second rowers and it is an increasingly important role. The prototypical winger now has a big body, not unlike an edge, and is expected to make metres. If that body can also hit a hole or run a decoy or make a tackle, then maybe the leap isn’t as significant as thought. If wingers are in oversupply and second rowers are in undersupply, then perhaps the halves-to-hooker machine that was in vogue a few seasons ago can be retooled to turn wingers into edges.

When I looked into it, it turned out that this was not so much a trend, as just something the Roosters tried for round 1 (and then Mia Wood spent the season oscillating between wing and the bench) and the two Broncos, and even then, Spreadborough was playing lock, not second row.

Of the players who started at least two NRLM regular season games in the second row and wing over the course of 2022 to 2025, only Jayden Okunbor (seven wing starts, five edge) and Asu Kepaoa (5 and 4) qualified and neither of them played NRL in 2025. The qualifiers in the other competitions were:

• NRLW: Jasmin Strange, China Polata, Shenai Lendill, Lauren Dam

• QCup: Ioane Seiuli, Kane Bradley, Tom Farr, Kurtis Farr

• QDub: Madeline Burton, Lauren Dam (again), Mattice McLeod

• NSW Cup: Nicholas O’Meley, Harry Hayes, Asu Kepaoa (again), Jed Stuart, Brandon Mansfield

The only other player who I thought might qualify was Bob Tenza, who only played one game this season and spent his entire QCup career on the wing, and it turns out I had conflated Tenza with Zev John, who has only ever played a forward role, by virtue of them both being Papua New Guineans who play for the Capras with Anglo first names in their name.³

If the confusion of two players with somewhat similar vital statistics is required to generate examples, then there can’t possibly be that many in the first place. Granted, this approach might miss players who have an edge-like role, but come off the bench for the bulk of their minutes or players who are listed in a way that is inconsistent with their on-field role or players who have transitioned between competitions.

Nonetheless, there is definitely an Oatesian “tweener” player type: one that can play in the three-quarter line at centre or winger, as well as in the pack. Who are they and are they any good at it?

To assess whether players are any good at switch hitting between the backs and forwards, I’ve plotted their Z score while starting in the forwards against their Z score in the centre or wing (three-quarters) positions. The further to the up and right, the more productive the player was in those roles, with over 100 representing production over the average expected for that position.

There are more female than male examples and that there are more Cup players than NRL players that meet the criteria. This tells us, much in the same way that completion rates can be used as a proxy for professionalism, we can use this chart as a proxy for specialisation. The NRLM has only one representative that met the criteria of:

• Played at least one regular season game in the competition in 2025 at wing, centre, prop, lock, 2nd row or from the bench.

• Has played at least two regular season games in the period of 2023 to 2025 at wing/centre and another two at prop/lock/2nd row.

• Has not played 100% of their games at centre and 2nd row.

• Has played at least 25% of their games in the backs and at least 25% of their games in the pack.

Which is a complex way of introducing Jack Bird, the utility of utilities. Bird, a former Bronco, Shark, Dragon and current Tiger, can do in a pinch at the centre position but still has some juice when in the middle of the field, even if that assessment is more reflective of his work in 2023 than 2025.

We have five players from the NRLW but 11 from the QDub. There are six from QCup and eight from NSW Cup compared to the lone Bird from the NRLM. Possibly there would be no qualifying players from the NRLM in 2026. As one heads down the pyramid, specialisation declines in the face of the need to get bodies into positions. If a player is professional, they have time to train and hone the craft of centre, wing, edge and moving them becomes more risky. If a player is semi-professional, they are more likely to be used to plug holes as their skillset is less refined, the quality of play lower and the margins less narrow.

Shuffling players along the spectrum also seems to be more common among bad teams than good ones and, with some exceptions, for bad players rather than good ones. The number of Capras that make the list, from both the men’s and women’s competitions, I think is signal, not noise.

Nonetheless, there are interesting notes to be made at the boundary of the chart. Jordan Samrani and Nick Tsougranis, two NSW Cup players, appear to be quite good at playing both roles but definitely have a strong suit (Samrani in the forwards, Tsougranis in the backs). Both made their debuts in the NRL this year, for the Eels and Dragons respectively. Something to keep an eye on to see how they progress and if they’re offered the same positional opportunities if they hold their places in the majors.

I have noted some “pure examples”, which are the players (they’re all women) who have followed the transition hypothesis posed in the first paragraphs. The first pure example was China Polata, current Cowboys and one-time Maroon, whose career has been stricken with injury over the last two years. Far be it from me to blame what I believe to be a Ben Jeffries-initiated move from the backs to the forwards for the repeated injuries - it could just be bad luck - but I can’t say I’ve seen what that move was meant to bring, compared to how she tore the QDub apart and got herself a Maroons call up on the wing in 2023. We’ll see what 2026 delivers if Polata is fully fit.

Of the other pure examples, Jasmin Strange’s move is probably a success: perhaps her old man does indeed know ball. The move to the forwards has also greatly benefitted Bree Spreadborough, who had very little to offer as a wing or centre at the Broncos, despite her history for Central Queensland, which is plain to the eye test.

Portia Bourke is a more curious case. She transferred mid-season from the Norths Devils to the Wests Tigers. At the Devils, she was much stronger in the pack. Of the four games she’s played in the NRLW, she killed it in one game as a centre (a rare W for the Tigers) and has been less impressive at second row in three other games.

Conversely, Lauren Dam might be more suited to staying in the backs but if the next step down on the depth chart for edge forwards is well below replacement level, then the Z score of 70 that Dam will give you is more than enough, especially if you can find someone like Kerri Johnston who is going to give you 142 on the wing in lieu. The team benefits overall, even if the individual player is not wholly optimised.

The other two players I want people to talk about are Kalolo Saitaua and Emily Bella. I am a relatively big fan of both, to the extent that anyone is a fan of players at their level without being related to them. Saitaua deserved a train and trial or a pre-season or something with a NRL club but will be 30 next year and so the moment has probably passed him by. Bella was the U19 Maroons utility that swung the 2023 game in Queensland’s favour and still has her future ahead of her, although I’m worried the Cowboys machine is going to fail her.

Based on their play in the statewide competitions, both can play anywhere the coach throws them. To me, the stats pervert, that seems like a huge advantage. To others, the alleged ball knowers, this may mean they’re not good enough at anything in particular to lock down a position. I don’t know what to tell you if you’re not going to watch a lot of Wynnum men’s or Mackay women’s footy this year but these seem to be truly rare talents: more versatile than even the Oatestian tweeners.

Accolades

Now to announce 2025’s list of The Maroon Observer Players of the Year, which is judged on a mix of eye test, memory and stats by a jury of me alone.

The previous winners are listed here, along with the predictions for this year’s winners. Of the NRL players, the only prediction that got close was Jayden Campbell, maybe Max Plath, which is funny that I could have easily fixed it to make myself look smarter and no one would have noticed or cared but that’s honesty.

This year, I split out separate awards for NRLM and NRLW coaches of Queensland clubs (Karyn Murphy is retrospectively 2023’s winner and Scott Prince, 2024). I also dropped the Dude of the Year from the QCup clubs on the basis that there were very few Dudes of any calibre this year. The #1 players are the top rated in that competition by Wins Above Reserve Grade, on which I will publish more another time.

NRLM

• Broncos Player of the Year: Payne Haas

• Cowboys Player of the Year: Tom Dearden

• Dolphins Player of the Year: Isaiya Katoa (2nd)

• Titans Player of the Year: Phillip Sami

• Dude #1, Player of Players: James Tedesco, Roosters (4th)

• Q4 Coach of the Year: Michael Maguire, Broncos

NRLW

• Broncos Player of the Year: Tamika Upton

• Cowboys Player of the Year: Jakiya Whitfeld

• Titans Player of the Year: Jessika Elliston

• Dude #1, Player of Players: Tamika Upton, Broncos

• Q3 Coach of the Year: Ricky Henry, Cowboys

QCup

• Bears Guy of the Year: Guy Hamilton (2nd)

• Blackhawks Guy of the Year: Dudley Dotoi

• Capras Guy of the Year: Tevita Naufahu

• Clydesdales Guy of the Year: Corey Fenning

• Cutters Guy of the Year: Raydan Burns

• Devils Guy of the Year: James Flack

• Dolphins Guy of the Year: Aublix Tawha

• Falcons Guy of the Year: Zion Johnson

• Hunters Guy of the Year: Sanny Wabo

• Jets Guy of the Year: Oliver Pascoe

• Magpies Guy of the Year: Anthony Milford

• Pride Guy of the Year: Dane Aukafolau

• Tigers Guy of the Year: Asher O’Donnell

• Tweed Guy of the Year: Joseph Vuna

• Wynnum Guy of the Year: Ben Farr

• Guy #1, Player of Players: Takitau Mapapalangi, Bears

• QCup Coach of the Year: Luke Burt, Bears

• Proof of Concept Coach of the Year: Tye Ingebrigtsen, Jets

QDub

• Player of the Year: Georgia Sim, Clydesdales

• Guy #1, Player of Players: Joeannah Naime, Magpies

The Broncos are back where they’re meant to be: Titletown, Premiership City, Queensland

We’re out of the void!

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Here’s the last paywall for the year. Behind, we have some minor business to conclude regarding dashboards and link to the final update of The Dataset™ for 2025.

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