Complete with proof of life
Dolphins win, Titans, Broncos and Cowboys lose, Esom Ioka and Edwin Ipape
Checking in with the NRLM teams one-third of the way through the season and some individuals of note
Dolphins (4th, 5-3, +51) - While ravaged with injuries that had, at one point, claimed the entire starting pack, and with a ceiling that no one seems to think is all that high, the Dolphins are the best of the Q4 after round 9. This year’s campaign has been a loss to the Broncos, a round one loss to the Cowboys, a winnable game that slipped through the fingers against the Knights. Redcliffe then beat all of the bad teams they’ve played: Titans, Eels, Dragons, Tigers and a more accurately refelective matchup against the Cowboys.
The Dolphins’ floor is much higher than I think they’re getting credit for. The expectation is that they’ll run low on troops and the wheels will fall off, as per 2023, but they’re already low on troops and should really be 6-2. Logically, once the troops return, that will offset the increasing difficulty of the draw. We said this last season but finals is not out of the question. The Red Fish have 10 winnable games of 16 remaining, and only need an 8-8 record to finish top eight.
Isaiya Katoa always looked the goods. Even when he was stepping up from Flegg to fill in the 2022 NSW Cup finals for Penrith, you didn’t have to grind a lot of tape to see he was ready for The Show. His comp is Cam Munster and when Munster is in form, no one knows what he’s going to do but unlike Munster, Katoa knows what he’s doing. Jamayne Isaako had plenty of points in him in his rookie season but not only has he become one of the best finishers on the wing, he’s managed to find time to become a good defender. Who’d have thought that at any point between 2019 and 2022? Trai Fuller had a real Scott Drinkwater of a game against the Cowboys and was lucky his penultimate drop was (dubiously) ruled a knock back. I still think he’s neat.
Broncos (7th, 5-4, +42) - The Broncos started 2023 with a 7-2 record. I had them set as a 16-win team in 2024, down from 18, so they’re right on course. The losses to the Roosters, on both occassions, are the worst the Broncos have to offer, and even the second game was winnable until the last thirty seconds of the Mariner sin bin. The loss to the Panthers was a lot more expected, especially under the injurious circumstances, and the Broncos may never beat the Storm in the regular season again, so that is what it is. Otherwise, they’ve comfortably dealt with the Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Tigers, Dolphins and Raiders.
That the Broncos started scoring once Reynolds went off is a coincidence but will need to be reality for the next three months. While it would be nice to have an older head to remind Walsh to slow his brain, Reynolds’ absence won’t materially affect the Broncos’ attack once the replacement-level Madden returns (or Kev goes all-in with a spine of Walsh, Sailor, Mam and Walters), and might even repair the increasingly exploitable fissure between Reynolds and Riki. Even at this stage, it’s clear there’s enough garbage in the league and enough talent in the Broncos that missing the finals is not a terribly realistic proposition. Brisbane need a 9-6 record to finish the season for a likely top four finish and only two on the remaining schedule (Panthers and Storm) are certain losses, so there’s scope to miss Reynolds and let Mam take a step forward, have a few slow-your-brain fuck-around-and-find-out games - perhaps Walsh will need another couple of games on the sidelines? - and still be a contender.
Whether people realise Jesse Arthars is actually pretty good now, and not just a Titans cast-off, I don’t know but his broken jaw is another inconvenience, only because the step down to 2024 Corey Oates is larger than many fans would like to admit. Now that Mick Ennis has stopped insisting Kotoni Staggs be constantly fed the ball, everyone’s forgotten that he’s the best at yardage of the Broncos’ back line and one of the more reliable defenders. Payne Haas needs no introduction, is a better fullback than James Tedesco, and even at 80% of his best, is a reassuring presence on the field, presumably for his teammate but definitely for me in the stands.
Cowboys (10th, 4-5, -16) - Matt Bungard made the point on Boom Rookies that prime Jason Taumalolo was such an energy-sapping handful for defenders, it made his teammates’ jobs so much easier to make metres. Without that bulldozing approach to yardage, the pack has to dig deeper to find the equivalent production and they’re coming up short. I think there’s something in that but will also remind everyone that North Queensland have had one good season since 2017. Even finishing tenth, where they are on the ladder right now, would be the best result in that period, after 2022.
While we love the Cowboys’ in attack, they are extremely unreliable in defence and that will continue to undermine any march forward. I don’t believe the roster or the coach has any real answers for that, which begs bigger, longer term and more introspective questions. If 2022 is the aberration, and the Cowboys’ true level is somewhere between ninth and 16th, then it might be time to start learning names like Micheal Luck (head of football since 2020) and Jeff Reibel (CEO since 2018) and Laurence Lancini (no particular reason) and asking those questions of them. While you’re there, find out how Mark Nicholls made a linebreak past Jeremiah Nanai.
Back in 2024, the Cowboys are on a four game skid that can end with three wins, with a series of consecutive opportunities to get-right against the Titans, Souths and the Tigers. After that, it’s not the easiest run home - Bulldogs and Raiders twice, Roosters, Warriors, Manly, Broncos, Storm, Sharks, Panthers. If you can bank on the Titans, Souths, and Tigers twice, there’s still another five that have to be found to be playing in September and the Cowboys are more likely to have a bad day than any of the above.
Titans (16th, 1-7, -89) - The last month of Titans football has been pretty close to NRL average. A win by three points and losses by one, four and two isn’t the worst run in the competition but the preceding four games very nearly were. There is almost zero chance of Gold Coast playing meaningful football in 2024, other than to act as spoiler for their rivals, but they will likely grind their way out of the spoon conversation as the South Sydney Rabbitohs verge on total structural failure, as evidenced by bringing in the likes of Gehamat Shibasaki from the Blackhawks, and the post-Benji coital glow of the pre-season drains from the visage of the Wests Tigers and they realise what they’ve done.
We’ll leave the what-thens to the post-season, because I don’t think there’s a whole lot of difference between 10th and 15th, and instead put a lot more stock in what the NRLW side delivers later in the year. Until then, let’s enjoy the renaissance of Kieran Foran, who is playing as hard as his body will allow and steering the team more effectively without Tanah Boyd than with. David Fifita could waltz into Penrith and become their best player as easily as he waltzed along the Storm’s defensive line. I can’t remember if I’ve offered this previously but AJ Brimson, uninhibited and presumably now unhampered by injury, is a refreshing reminder of his breakout years and a much needed injection into the Titans’ options.
Thank you for reading The Maroon Observer
Checking in with the women’s game
We have a team for game 1 and it looks a lot like the team that won the 2023 series.
The Maroons don't have Chantay Kiria-Ratu, which is only surprising because I thought she was more highly rated than Sienna Lofipo, who is in the extended squad, but glad to see consensus align with my reality. Chelsea Lenarduzzi misses out again, presumably because there's not really a need to change the squad and it's not clear if Lenarduzzi would do a better job than the incumbents. Skyla Adams is the only really new name in the list, I haven’t paid enough attention to the Magpies this year to be familiar with her game, but she’s more likely to feature in the U19s.
Pam Whaley at News is reporting Southwell has been dropped from the NSW side and her predicted lineup isn't any more fearsome than the sides Queensland have disposed of in recent years. The Blues will be confirmed later today.
Speaking of, the under 19s emerging squad was also announced. There’s some good NRLW-level names in there, including the aforementioned Sienna Lofipo to play either ball playing lock or be a big body in the halves, my favourite rogue Rilee Jorgensen and the sharp Ebony Raftstrand-Smith. There will be no Emily Bella to bail them out of the second half this year, so hopefully there’s a bit more focus in the first. I want another Interstate Championship, which is now an 8 game series and in the event of a tie, the winner will be decided by a 4x100m relay (one player from each team) on grand final day.
Which brings us back to the BMD Premiership. The face of this competition can change rapidly. I made some bold pronouncements a few weeks ago and it has not gone as expected. I thought the teams would sort themselves into groups of contenders and non-contenders but instead the Capras fell way off the pace and will get the spoon, the Cutters did enough to be locked in to the minor premiership and everyone else clumped together, covered by three competition points going into the last round. Miraculously, the QRL managed to fix the draw so that the final fixtures are 1st vs 2nd, 3rd vs 4th, 5th vs 8th, 6th vs 7th and 9th vs 10th. Well done to everyone at head office.
The Cutters are already in. Meg Ward’s Devils have done an outstanding job to be second and, even with a loss to Mackay, would need a Western win and a Burleigh win by 51 points minus Norths’ deficit and a Wynnum win by 65 points minus Norths’ deficit to be knocked out of the top four.
That leaves seven teams chasing two slots. The Clydesdales and Magpies is win-and-in. Western’s nil points difference is offset by a draw and Souths Logan have turned a 0-4 start around to 4-4 since the arrival of Evania Pelite at fullback. If Ali Brigginshaw and Shenae Ciesiolka return for the Darling Downs side, that will swing things back in their favour. At time of writing, neither are named and nor are Pelite, Joseph or Brill.
That leaves five teams chasing one slot. A Bears victory should be enough to secure Burleigh’s post-season, although they only have a 13 point buffer on Wynnum, but the Bears will have the Seagulls’ result by the time they kick off. Wynnum will need a win and either a Tigers win or to win by 13 points more than Burleigh to continue their season. It’s a far more tenuous situation than we would have envisaged pre-season for last season’s grand finalists. Sunshine Coast’s position is similar to Wynnum’s but at -59 points difference, they will need an Easts win.
Down the bottom, Easts and Tweed are both on seven points, the Tigers having secured three draws in eight games, so either would need big wins and a draw in Wynnum-Sunshine Coast to leapfrog into the top four, although the need for points difference lessens if the Clydesdales also win.
A fascinating weekend of permutations ahead.
Addenda to last week’s safety discussion
Why you’ve never been in a plane crash. Some of these ‘just culture’ elements are applicable to coronial investigations, which is why coroners make recommendations for improvement, instead of ordering the dumbasses in the vicinity of an industrial accident to be hung from the tallest tree as a warning to the others.
“Former Manly player Keith Titmuss died after a training session which was “more likely than not inappropriate”, a coroner has found.” If that’s the most salacious finding from a coronial investigation, you’ve gotten pretty lucky, because Manly should have known better: “Former Manly Sea Eagles prop Lloyd Perrett is reportedly set to take legal action against the club, having suffered a life-altering seizure at a training session in 2017. The 29-year-old collapsed during a training session, having been denied water and reportedly forced to continue running.”
Once can be a careless mistake with lessons to learn, twice (or more) is at best callous indifference. Given how much hydration is available during a game, it’s not clear what Manly were trying to prepare for here but there’s clearly a cultural trend, not just specific to that club, to be broken open. Over to you, journalists.
Intermission
While this wasn't the match winner, the no look backwards flick pass from Esom Ioka to Fua Schwalger would've been worth two competition points by itself. The Western Clydesdales went on to score again and take their first win of the season in a cracking game against the Redcliffe Dolphins.
This moves the Dales off the bottom of the ladder, ahead of the Jets on bye points, while the Phins have lost to the Blackhawks and Clydesdales in consecutive weeks, which is not encouraging.
Meanwhile in England, let's check in on how Edwin Ipape is going on return from injury:
When was the last scoop and score off a falcon?
Speaking of Falcons, check out Sheridan Gallagher’s last couple of highlights:
Upcoming Slate
NRLM - Dolphins vs Sea Eagles at Suncorp, Thursday 8pm
Herbie Farnworth is back. The Dolphins’ backline actually looks pretty good with his inclusion and Tesi Niu’s exclusion, when you give the Phins the elevation the Bennett/Woolf combo seems to be providing this year and hope Fuller can hang on to the ball and Bostock lumbers into defensive position occasionally. I’m still reasonably confident that the Sea Eagles, like their coach, are a bunch of frauds. Exhibit A: this game. Tip: Dolphins
QRLW - Devils vs Cutters at Bishop Park, Sunday 12.20pm
As discussed, this week is really dealer’s choice. While this game is effectively meaningless but there’s are the two best teams in the competition and I definitely didn’t expect that before the season began. For the most important round of the season, with so much still undecided, it’s weird that the BMD is going to be absent so much of the topline talent that started the year. Norths have more or less kept the same team and Meg Ward has shown some real knack for this, while Mackay don’t have Emma Manzelmann, among others (resting? Origin? injuries?). Tip: Devils
NRLM - Titans vs Cowboys at C-Bus, Sunday 4.05pm
I’m including this game to just make some tangential observations: 1) the quality of this game is rated “very low”, which is funny, 2) there aren’t many promising QCup matchups this week (Tigers vs Devils are two average but closely rated teams on the feature game) after last Sunday’s slaughter-a-thon and 3) all three FTA NRL games have Queensland teams in them, only Manly and Parra get to run with the big dogs this week. Tip: Titans
(Tips 15 / 28)
Watch Guide
Weather - In contrast to last week, there’s a ton of games in Brisbane this week and only one game between Redcliffe and Cairns.
Brisbane: Thursday 15 - 23 light rain, Saturday 15 - 22 light rain, Sunday 14 - 23 scattered thunderstorms; Port Moresby: Saturday 26 - 31 scattered thunderstorms; Gold Coast: Saturday 16 - 22 light rain, Sunday 14 - 22 partly cloudy; Mackay: Saturday 19 - 23 clear; Pootown: Friday 14 - 18 light rain
Notes
Signatures: Braidon Burns to Cowboys.
Injuries: Reynolds out for 12-14, Arthars out for 6. Also, “Morea Morea’s journey towards a full recovery from his ankle injury continues to show encouraging signs as he advances through the final stages of his rehabilitation program. Morea visited a specialist in Brisbane, Australia earlier this week for a comprehensive review of his progress as well as a check in with NRL medical staff from the Dolphins NRL franchise to assess his suitability to return to play.” Complete with proof of life prior to his return via D-EM Cup.
Townsville won both men’s and women’s Foley Shields. QRL dot com has a great quote: "I was telling them to try to kick a field goal, because I knew if we lost by three (the XXXX Foley Shield) was ours.” Not how sport usually works!
It’s always a bad sign when you learn the names of board members. If Bennett “leaves an almighty mess” in his wake (an assessment I don’t agree with, but Webster probably has more information than me), then going back to that well would seem less than ideal and doesn’t fix the systemic issues that created this situation. An organisation reliant on one person is no organisation at all. While these people obviously can’t be expected to be held responsible for the quality of their decision-making, I also wouldn’t want any of the listed alternatives. Time for Lionel Harbin to go to Redfern.
Early call: Burleigh and Sunshine Coast played out a bruising 17-10 contest, only sealed for the Bears by some Cleary-esque last minute heroics (this is a pejorative, for clarity) from Guy Hamilton. I’d have this tagged as a HPC grand final preview, both teams advancing over Wynnum and Pride in the prelims.
Good content: How we’ll build it: The Warriors’ approach to NRLW re-entry
From the desk of Campton: How Brisbane star Kotoni Staggs remodeled his game
Unlike our fellow Substack perverts at
, who had a piece on this very topic, anyone who doesn’t think that David Fifita would smash it at any NRL club has a demonstrable lack of ball knowing, however, I will grant that regularly watching the Titans is listed as a type of self harm in DSM-5. Does he need to crush someone’s skull with one hand in Origin to prove it? I doubt the Panthers or the Roosters or whoever can outbid the Titans, who should really have some self-respect and let him go because he’s just going to keep doing this until he’s absorbing a quarter of the cap.“Our game is stupid,” says NRL club football manager with 40 year history in the sport, including a longstanding national media platform and significant clout with current and past administrations and whose prolapsed brain farts have become the basis of the post-covid structure of the game. Anyway, he exists to be mined for content, which is its own DSM-5 category, and never actually does anything other than pointlessly spend other people's money.
I may be sick but I kind of like the Titans’ City jersey. Does the sponsor integration look like a dishwasher tablet? Yes. Is the detail less than subtle? Sure. But in stark contrast to the current home and away jerseys and the rest of the Titans’ oeuvre, the City jersey is at least interesting. GCT should be doing more weird shit to stand out, e.g. a jersey to commemorate the victory of John Sobieski and the forces of Christendom at Vienna in 1683 to turn back the tide of the perfidious Ottomans, in lieu of an Anzac jersey. As I already own the Titans arrow jersey from the 2019 9s and the Warriors’ bush shirt, I might pick this one up on sale at the end of the season.
Dolphins crack 31k members, which is good but a not insubstantial portion of that is one-game members that wanted to get tickets to a Broncos game. Still, better than having to offer a steal of 7 games for $21 ea - do people know you can watch the other team, as well as the Titans?
Cairns: In just his second game, the young fullback did what some players never experience in their careers (the fullback is Lachlan West of the Pride, who did have some nice touches against the Jets)
Gold Coast: Southport president Scott Mulligan lifts the lid on his club’s new approach under player points cap. No more Clive Palmer and this unfortunate sentence, “Our goal is to keep breeding our juniors.”
Not Queensland: Steve Mascord is theorising Super League 2.0 is coming for the big English clubs, this time led by Antipodeans who may or may not be associated with the NRL, and not pay TV. His hypothesis is very light on specifics so has only slightly more credibility than what a fan could spin up but we’ll see.
Not Queensland: USARL Announces Major Developments in Domestic Rugby League Structure and Management. Can’t believe they’ve had to reinvent divisions and conferences but there you go, looks good, so now I can’t wait for some dipshit to ruin it all.
Sportsbrain: "The sheer scale of the problem is illustrated by the fact that we have filed more than 8,000 pages of medical records and legal documents for the first 17 football claimants alone" (more background) and I Wish I’d Never Become The NFL Weed Guy (very good)
Nickelware
