Down the Origin clown
The Maroons selections continue to mystify, Titans and Magpies win, Broncos and Cowboys lose and Broncos assistant coaches
11. Kurt Capewell
What am I meant to do with this? Really.
Slater didn’t select Fifita, the plainly obvious candidate.
He didn’t drop Nanai, who has been less than exemplary.
He did drop Su’A, who is by no means perfect but has coped.
And he elevated Kurt Capewell, a man who can barely get a start at the 14th placed Warriors into the starting side for State of Origin.
This, going into a decider after getting completely dominated by the Blues forwards in the second game and for long stretches of the first.
What are you doing, Origin genius?
Unless you're Dave “the media is what's really important about Origin and by the media I mean me” Riccio and want to fall over, baring your full diaper to everyone in an attempt to justify the decision, the explanations don’t pass muster. Here are the stats and here is Slater’s employer, Nine, guessing at what we suspect to be true:
Slater has talked in circles when it comes to Fifita and the majority of Queensland's supporters have expressed their disappointment and confusion at the tackle-breaking machine being left out once again, especially with the series on the line.
Is there a personal issue between the coach and star player? Or have the Maroons turned their back on another player who went through a messy contract circus, similar to what Daly Cherry-Evans endured earlier in his career?
We all thought we were on a good one with Slater after ‘22 and ‘23 but it has taken the slightest pressure - a few injuries and the Blues performing close to their potential sans Cleary - for Slater to fold like origami. Nothing he’s done this year suggests he understands the on-field problems he has to solve, let alone that he has any solutions. This is, after all, one of the key roles in the coach position description, especially if you’re not just going to pick the best players and let them get on with it.
If the Maroons blow this at Suncorp, a place where Queensland historically has an eight point advantage, this series is going to get a serious mythologising by New South Wales. A famously brave loss down a man in game 1 in Sydney, followed by a huge win at the MCG in game 2 and then overcoming the Trial of Caxton Street to secure the series and down the Origin clown? The Blues are dangerously close to getting Origin.
It’s one thing to give up the field to a better forward pack - see 2021 - it’s entirely another thing to give up the power of mythos in doing so. Without that, we’re just a bunch of hooligans in purply red jumpers.
Tip: Queensland 1-12 (Kurt Capewell field goal to seal the result)
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Around the grounds
Titans 20 defeated Sharks 16. Good lord the Sharks suck (and then Nicho’s leg imploded). The Titans put together the kind of win bad teams put together at this time of the year. It is if not good, then a victory is at least promising but we have been here several times already this season. Finals are possible only if Gold Coast rips off an all-time run into September before inevitably being brutalised. Looking past a 5-10 record, and how that could easily and horrifically collapse into a spoon, to a -67 points difference that is better than Souths and Canberra and on par with St George Illawarra. That at least suggests had things broken the right way, the Titans would be on the fringes of finals. Is that good? It’s promising but then, that’s all the Titans have really ever offered.
Panthers 14 defeated Broncos 6. A Ninefax headline described the Broncos’ loss as “brave”. That is such unbelievable loser talk that I can’t believe it was passed through editorial. The reality is that Brisbane are now 7-9 with eight games left to play. The price of admission to the finals in a 17 team comp is usually going to be 13 wins, although it could be the kind of year a 12-12 team sneaks in with a decent points difference. Of the remaining eight games, seven are winnable for the Broncos, but the usual return from seven winnable games is three or four wins, five if it goes really well. Five plus seven is 12. Batting .500 post-Origin isn’t going to be enough. With Reynolds still weeks away, it’s hard to see how the math maths on this one. Even if it does, then what? The expectation after a grand final loss is a grand final win. Exiting in week one or two or, at best, making it to a crushing preliminary final defeat, isn’t going to cut it for anyone.
Sea Eagles 21 defeated Cowboys 20. The Cowboys should have put Chad Townsend back on the same plane as Manly and sent him on to the Roosters early. This was a winnable game with just a handful of different decisions and the Cowboys just didn’t get it done. A normal team with a 9-8 record, a half dozen Origin players to come into the fold, a huge upcoming home stand and only one really tough game remaining on the schedule, would be a mortal lock for finals and perhaps even premiership contention. The North Queensland Cowboys are not a normal team and have shown no signs over the last few years of adhering to any kind of logical form line, so your guess is as good as mine.
Magpies 40 defeated Wynnum 10. Unfortunately, in a recurring theme of 2024, this was the only other game I got to this weekend. When the season reviews are written, it’s going to be something of a mystery as to how Wynnum ripped off such a hot start, including wins over some contenders, to hit round 12 - the Seagulls were first and 7-2 after round 11 and have one win and one draw since - and gently descend from cruising altitude into the bin. Souths Logan were up 20+ before half time, had the ascendancy in the field position and through the middle. Even in QCup, that’s a recipe for an easy win. There’s enough time and buffer for the Gulls to turn it around but it is absolutely unclear where that’s going to come from. The Magpies are starting to put together some decent footy over the last two weeks but their resume speaks to a team easily crushed by the superiors and will generally, but is by no means a guarantee, to beat their inferiors. With five games left, and three winnable ones, it’s probably too far to get into the top eight from here.
Bit going on there
What’s going on at Red Hill? If you missed it, Walters’ assistants are all fleeing the ship. John Cartwright is headed out to Hull, Lee Briers’ option for 2025 is suppesdly not being taken up and Matt Ballin might head down to the Titans to join Hasler. U19 Maroons and Redcliffe Dolphins coach Ben Te’o is allegedly at least one of the ones coming to Red Hill to fill the vacancies. Karmichael Hunt another?
Some amount of turnover is common. Priorities change for people with lives and opportunities arise for people with ambition. With absolutely no knowledge of the situation on the ground, it could be any of the following, or a combination:
Performance on field this year hasn’t been good enough and these guys are taking the fall, which then assumes Kev’s head is next if things don’t improve in 2025.
Kev is hard to work for or with, so they’re looking elsewhere.
It’s just a coincidence and everything is fine. Really.
Hmm.
This week in expansion bullshit
The Bears are down to one game at NSO and the letter to NRL WA was real.
Assuming the Perth Bears are as done a deal as PNG was, or as desperate journalists on Twitter are to convince you that no really this time they actually have the scoop unlike the other guys that said they did, the upside, if there is to be one, will be the precedent of a transfer of a rugby league brand out of Sydney into another place. Even though this has been demonstrated in the AFL (and numerous other sports), that doesn’t seem to be sufficient to convince many people that their club should take the plunge, relocate and prosper.
While the NRL clubs’ financial situation is in a relatively good place at the minute (big asterisk for previously discussed reasons), that won’t last forever. Dark economic times will return, as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, although it’s probably a couple of TV deals into the future. When that happens, if there is a relocation precedent, then that might be more encouraging for weaker clubs to look at a future where they move to Adelaide, Christchurch or elsewhere. The presumed success of the Perth Bears will help with that line of argument, even if “well that was different because the Bears hadn’t been in the NRL for more than 20 years” will prevail among a certain subset of lead paint chip eating fans. Of course, the contrary case will apply if the whole thing is a disaster.
Even given how astonishingly quickly the switch flipped from PNG to WA, there is still a semblance of process to follow. The Controlling Body is currently accepting expressions of interest. Those EoI will be evaluated after the close by the expansion committe. Then the committee will ask Peter V’Landys want he wants and that’s what they’ll go with.
There are supposedly 11 bids, even though I think I can only name seven (Easts Tigers, two South Island bids, Bears, WA, PNG, Fiji) that notionally exist, so not sure who the other four are. If $30 million is the buy-in, then WA Bears could do it (if we put aside obvious alignment concerns between North Sydney and Perth), PNG and probably the Easts/Brisbane Tigers.
Even if we put aside obvious logistical concerns, PNG only works with substantial government backing but if they miss this window, then they need Marape and Albanese to get re-elected in 2027 and 2025 respectively to have any hope of NRL19.
Then again, Pauline Hanson, who I didn’t realise was still alive let alone in the Senate, is against it so I guess I’m now the most rabid PNG expansion enthusiast you can imagine. Have we considered granting them two licences? Three? They can have a couple of Sydney teams to sweeten the deal.
I’d be surprised if there’s anyone else out there with the kind of resources on hand for rugby league purposes needed and it’s not clear how else the NRL gets to 20 other than those three options. While owning a NRL club is a profitable enterprise, it’s not that profitable and NZ2 isn’t raising $30 million without private equity ghouls or similar who will want better returns.
If you’re the Tigers, then you’re banking on the NRL being committed enough to the goal of 20 by 32 that you can let the WA Bears get the 18th licence, wait for the democratic process to kill PNG and then be in the strongest position for NRL19, 20 at worst even if PNG somehow makes it to the pitch.
It’s not like the NRL is going to fund this themselves with some sort of high level strategy.
Intermission
Upcoming Slate
A fairly compelling set of yardstick games this weekend, with a nice sorting of NRL on Saturday and QCup on Sunday. Here’s what I would watch if I was a completely different person who had lots of free time on the weekend.
NRLM - Dolphins vs Rabbitohs at Kayo, Thursday 8pm
If the Dolphins are who I think they are - or, perhaps more accurately, want them to be - they will win this game against a rapidly improving but still potentially quite bad Rabbitohs squad that is without both Latrell and Cam Murray. If the Dolphins are who I worry they are, their old asses are going to get beaten up in the middle and this is going to be a flogging. Tip: Rabbitohs
NRLM - Titans vs Eels at C-Bus, Saturday 5.30pm
A shit game, yes, granted, but this is a classic four pointer in the race to avoid the spoon. The Eels are likely to be without their talismanic halfback, among others, so could be ripe for the picking if the right kind of pressure is applied. It’s hard to work out what the Titans’ motivation in this one could be, other than pride whose record speaks for itself. Tip: Eels
NRLM - Broncos vs Dragons at Suncorp, Saturday 7.35pm
The Broncos should win this kind of game comfortably, irrespective of the year, but this has Tyrell Sloan scoring a hat trick written all over it. Don’t care for it but, even without Haas, Carrigan, Cobbo, etc this is a game the Broncos need and should desperately want to win and that should give it some tension. At least for about thirty minutes before the issues with Tyson Smoothy: Lock become painfully apparent. Tip: Dragons
QRLM - Tigers vs Pride at Langlands, Sunday 2.10pm
I’ve seen enough of the Tigers this year to know they are basically a bad team and won’t feature in the mix for anything beyond the end of the regular season. I’ve barely seen anything of the Pride so a systematic dismantling of the Tigers will indicate to me that they deserve to have the most wins the comp right now, whereas a comparatively poor showing, even if still a win, will indelibly brand them with fraud status. Tip: Pride
QRLM - Devils vs Dolphins at Bishop Park, Sunday 2.30pm
A local derby, a near top of the table clash and rematch of the 2022 grand final? Hell yeah. The Dolphins have been in good form, rolling in 44.5 points per game over the last four behind a strong pack. In the four games prior to their loss at home to the Hunters, the Devils racked up 41.5 points per game with an extremely wily spine. Classic style mismatch with a potential for a lot of points, so expect a final of 14-8 or something. Tip: Dolphins
QRLM - Jets vs Clydesdales at North Ipswich, Sunday 3.00pm
A shit game, yes, granted, but this is a classic four pointer in the race to avoid the spoon. Tip: Jets
(Tips 24 / 50)
Watch Guide
Weather - Brisbane: Thursday 10 - 23 mostly sunny, Saturday 8 - 21 sunny, Sunday 7 - 21 partly cloudy; Gold Coast: Saturday 9 - 21 partly cloudy; Mackay: Sunday 13 - 21 mostly sunny; Townsville: Saturday 16 - 27 mostly sunny; Port Moresby: Saturday 23 - 29 showers.
Notes
Good stats: Set restarts suck
Jarome Luai nearly drowned at a wave pool.
I'm broadly in favour of the concept of Vegas but the way it's being executed is extremely dumb. Mascord is characterising this as the first step in the NRL “pushing against an open door” if they wanted to take over Super League.
New Titan Gordon grateful to begin training early and Titans injury update
Congratulations to the Ipswich Jets for winning their second game of the season, after I openly questioned what they were going to look like under their new coach, in what the Falcons described as “one of our weakest performances in the first half” and noting that “the game was played in terrible conditions, but both teams had to deal with the torrid weather, and the Jets unfortunately handled it better than us.”
Not Queensland: Three clubs apply to join rugby league's third tier while Perez, Unger cede control of Cornwall
Nickelware
