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Ranking NRLM finals teams by how much you’d want to avoid them in the dark alley of September
Not all finals teams are created equal. The 2021 Titans finished in eighth place with a 10-14 record. People thought this meant they were good! That’s the nature of a top eight post-season in a 17 team competition. Sometimes, rubbish gets through the filter.
In 2025, there aren’t enough opportunities to deservedly eliminate the number of bad teams we have in the first two rounds. Unfortunately, that means some loser is going to sneak through the back door to a preliminary and have an undeserved shot at ruining the entire 2025 season with their presence in the grand final. Let’s take a look at each team’s credentials in order of how little we’d want to play them.
8. Warriors
New Zealand’s team is very clearly on a downward slide because they suffered two (2) key injuries. Take that for adversity, Souths fans. The Warriors’ points difference is even more egregiously out of place than it was in 2023. The still-trying Wahs lost to Manly on a field goal landed by a decreipt Daly Cherry-Evans and so finish the season with the same points difference as them, which is about 100 points worse than the Dolphins. Punch the Warriors in the mouth for 20 minutes, don’t fall for their outside backs posing any kind of threat, keep a lid on Leka Halasima and you’ll be 90% of the way home.
7. Sharks
The 2025 Sharks are frauds and the Fitzgibbon Sharks have always been frauds. There’s some very pretty play and occasionally one of the big boys will do something boisterous but the team can’t do the hard stuff and will wilt under real pressure should the clubs they are drawn against actually apply any. These are the Titans with less chaos and more defensive resolve. Cronulla should have stuck with 10-10 John Morris.
6. Bulldogs
The Dogs ruined their season to sign a kid whose upside is maybe better than Toby Sexton in a couple of years. In the most wide open competition since 2018, these guys went, “No, it’s the future premierships we might win that are more important than the one we very much could win right now with our league-leading defence.” Huge own goal by Ciraldo to capitulate to office guys thinking of their own tenures instead of the club’s best interests, especially when those guys will be gone before the cap shit hits the fan.
5. Roosters
The Roosters’ ability to fire a shot in these finals is about as real as the announced crowds at 2 Fast 2 SFS. Sure, your dumbass players might fall for the rainbow pass but if they can force five or six errors out of Sydney, the chicken will be cooked. Just ask Parramatta. We all know how I feel about Lil Spenny Lenny and stopping him is about as difficult as stopping the rest of this bad knockoff of a brand name pack. Without old man Tedesco and Mark Nawaqanitawase (did it without googling it), they wouldn’t have made it this far and we’d be enjoying the Dolphins bowing out in the first week instead.
4. Storm
The PTSD of being a ward of Craig Bellamy should be sufficient to yield something productive on the field but this side is both drowsier and clownier than the Storm than we saw in 2017 or 2020 or even in 2024. They can’t tackle for shit and keep dropping the ball. Perhaps this is a ploy to get rid of Bellmany via aneurysm-induced sick leave? The Storm get a week off in week one, having to play a Bulldogs team that will implode because the breeze is blowing the wrong way, then get a proper week off in week two. It’s a magic carpet ride to the preliminary final. Unbelievable.
3. Panthers
Despite finishing in the bottom half of the finalists, and chucking in the towel on finishing higher, and having to cheat to beat the Titans, there's still the bones of a good team here with a highly specific, effective and well drilled style of play. It makes me goddamn sick. The Panthers can still fire up the steamroller, even if that machinery looks suspiciously rusty and like it may blow a hydraulic line any second now. But for a doink and an unseemly submission to the Dogs, Penrith would be in the top four.
2. Broncos
The best defence against the Broncos would be to remove all of the toilets from Reece Walsh’s house so he cannot get his necessary recovery refreshment. Otherwise, if the Broncos feel like it, they’ll torch your ass and everything you hold dear after Payne Haas kicks in the door and Kotoni Staggs sets everything on fire (he didn’t mean to do this though, it was an accident). Adding Adam Reynolds would be a hand brake on this team. But they might also throw the ball into the stands 100 times and fail to do anything about chasing or defending kicks.
1. Raiders
Earlier this year, the Raiders were tracking to have a dismally low net points difference for a minor premier. At the time of writing, that was 6.4 points per game, the least for a minor premier since the ‘03 Panthers and the ‘83 Dolphins before that. With their absolute drubbing from Redcliffe, the Raiders finished the regular season with an average net margin of 6.2 points per game. That is less than it was in July. Their doink-six over the Panthers is their only win over a “good” team since the start of June and that depends on your view of the Roosters. Otherwise, you’re going back to early May. You do the maths there. Eight of their 19 wins came by one score or less and another three by two or less. Numbers, spirit and resilience be damned, these pricks are going to bullshit their way to the title fight.
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Around the grounds
Broncos 30 defeated Storm 14. I already wrote about this glorious night in the most recent Pony Picayune but let’s hear from the fans as well:
The game was effectively over when the Broncos scored in the shadows of half time. Melbourne were never coming back from a 12–4 deficit. This team’s resilience quotient isn’t high right now. The inability to handle Haas and Walsh prove that. It was smart from Toilet to get into dummy half when he noticed that Warbrick was off his wing having made the previous tackle.
Roosters 36 defeated Rabbitohs 6. Next time someone tries to tell you that Sydney derbies are a load-bearing part of the sport’s cultural heritage, remind them that Souths couldn’t even lay a glove on their arch rivals in a season where Easts finished eighth and a loss would’ve knocked them out of finals. The Titans would’ve shown more spiteful backbone against the Cowboys. Souths get far too much leeway for their performance because of injuries while the Dolphins finish 12-12.
Cowboys 42 defeated Dragons 14 (W).
Bears 22 defeated Wynnum 14 (M). A real Broncos Bowl as a bunch of fringe players on the roster looked decidedly pedestrian next to long time Cup Guys, Guy Hamilton and Kalolo Saitaua (the latter remains grossly underrated). It would be embarrassing if they hadn’t all been offered multi-year deals for some reason. Jock Madden and co could not find a way to break down the Burleigh defence and this game could have easily finished 16-2. I forgot about Fletcher Baker. Bears look ominous.
Devils 24 defeated Blackhawks 12. A brisk breeze off the wetlands. Afternoon sunlight filtered by the eucalypts. A weirdly small crowd of people who loped over from Nundah. The sound of my children wanting my attention. These are the sensations one associates with finals footy at Bishop Park. Dudley Dotoi scored before I had laid out the picnic mat and I thought we might be in for a long afternoon. The Devils, consummate professionals that they are, steadied the ship and scored 24 unanswered to make the lead comfortable but not so comfortable that I could leave early. It was an impressive display that suggests yet another grand final appearance beckoning. The Blackhawks are on a real skid and might not be able to turn the ship around against the Dolphins.
Dolphins 32 defeated Hunters 12. With the children returned home, the brisk breeze turned outright chilly, coming directly off the bay. PNG outscored the Dolphins 12-10 (three tries to two) after I arrived but unfortunately for the visitors, the score was 22-0 when I arrived. The Hunters remain the neutral’s delight and neither gave up nor ceased their enterprising style of play, even when down to 12 after a careless tackle that sucked the wind out of the game and the Hunters’ very vocal support group (there was also one obnoxious Dolphins fan). I never realised how bad Nat McGavin and his colleagues on Redcliffe’s right side were until I saw the Hunters go that way and go through the hands to magic up overlap after overlap. That’s probably going to be a problem against teams that don’t give you a 20 point headstart.
Broncos 26 defeated Warriors 6 (W). Warriors put up more of a fight than I expected. Good for them. See you next year.
Knights 28 defeated Titans 22 (W). The Titans did all the hard work to stay in the game and then draw level with a team they were not favoured against with ten minutes to go. Then, in one minute and 43 seconds of game time, a) botched the pass to Lauren Brown for the field goal attempt, b) botched the pass to Phoenix-Raine Hippi, causing a handling error down their own end, and c) Jessika Elliston laid on the laziest tackle attempt I’ve seen in my life to wave in Jessie Southwell for the match winning try. Infuriating stuff. There’s a really good chance they play each other again in the semi-finals.
Dolphins 62 defeated Raiders 24. Let's hear from the fans:
The Baby Raiders were murdered in front of our eyes, 62-24, by a team that played bigger, badder and faster. Canberra were carved up on the edges and outmuscled in the middle, forced to watch the opposition finish every set in attacking position with minimal risk. It doesn't matter because it wasn't the big names.
The Raiders might want to adopt a win now mentality if this is the next generation. On the upside, we might get rid of the stupid no-premier-has-ever-conceded-50 stat.
Jets 25 defeated Falcons 24. Ipswich nearly blew this. Leading 24-0 after 26 minutes, the Jets could not get themselves organised to score again, leaving plenty of time for the Falcons to stage one of their weird, second half comebacks in which they throw the kitchen sink at it (see also: the Jamayne Isaako game in 2022). The Falcons drew level on the siren and then promptly dropped the ball on the first tackle in golden point and let the Jets set up for a Dion Teaupa field goal. Season over.
Updated datavis
Congratulations to the Titans: you did it, you didn’t finish last. I heard there were parades on the Gold Coast after the Eels smashed the Knights on Sunday.
As noted elsewhere:
Intermission
From Saturday's north bayside double header:
Have to say that I find framing a decent photo of a rugby league field with a phone to be a challenge beyond my meagre skills. Probably should have taken a real camera and maybe stood up.
Sunshine Statewide
In the QDub, the Devils beat the Clydesdales to win their play-in, setting up a tough trip to the Bears. Burleigh are probably the only team that can challenge the top two - the extended team list includes the Broncos’ Tara McGrath-Weston, Danii Perese and Zara Canfield - and the winner here will go on to face Souths Logan next weekend.
Jets and Pride should offer a tightly fought contest, even if Northern blew Ipswich out of the water earlier in the year. Ipswich have found their footing more recently, taking the Magpies down two weeks, resisting a late surge in that game. Pride have an extended bench with six Cowboys, so who plays will dictate a great deal, even if the winner is likely to be turned into paste by the Tigers.
In the men’s draw, Townsville are at serious risk of being that team that had a great regular season and went out in straight sets (see also: 2023 Magpies). Redcliffe have played themselves into something resembling form (although I don’t wholly buy it) but they have their weaknesses. The Dolphins’ wing/centre combos were picked apart by the Devils in last years grand final and this year’s versions don’t look much better. They will have to contain Dudley Dotoi if Campagnolo and co are able to get him the ball. It’s probably irrelevant as I’m pretty confident Burleigh can beat both of these teams.
If Wynnum can unclog their constipated attack - this may involve bypassing Jock Madden - they should have more than enough class for Ipswich. The Jets have had a fantastic year, getting themselves back on the map, and did win their regular season rendezvous with the Seagulls and their starting pack looks like it might offer something. You know what, the longer I write this, the more I think the Jets can do it. Winner gets a trip to Bishop Park.
Hotseat
Tweed Seagulls RLFC are proud to announce the appointment of Joe O’Callaghan as Hostplus Cup Head Coach on a two-year deal.
O’Callaghan joins the Seagulls with extensive experience across elite rugby league programs, most recently with the South Sydney Rabbitohs where he served as NRL Assistant Coach, NSW Cup Head Coach, NRL Development Coach, and Jersey Flegg Head Coach.
O’Callaghan (no relation) won the NSW Cup as head coach in 2023 before Souths freefell to second last in 2024. The Rabbitohs got worse still, picking up the wooden spoon this year. Draw from those datapoints what you will.
I am seeing a slight trend of guys either hitting a ceiling or washing out of the middle- level of NSW clubs, transferring sideways to head coaching jobs in Queensland, presumably with a view to working their way into an assistant role at a NRL club (and then white anting to waiting for the call up to the top job). Is this a better path than trying your hand at Super League?
Meanwhile, in Cairns:
The Northern Pride announced today that Russ Aitken will not be the head coach for the 2026 season with Russ ceasing in that role from today.
The Pride went from 17-3 in 2024 to 6-14 this year, with plenty of Cowboys support, so not a challenging decision there I suppose.
In summary, we have open seats at Easts and Northern with Redcliffe and Tweed fronting with new coaches next year. Unless there’s a personal crisis, that’s probably all the changes we’ll see for performance this season.
Upcoming Slate
Only the NRLW is left in its regular season with the final round upcoming. There is an almost insignificant amount of intrigue left. If the Raiders beat the Titans and the Eels beat the Bulldogs, Parramatta can take the last finals place. The rest is for home finals in week 1. The only matches with any tension will be the women’s Big Game to see if the Cowboys can get their first win over the Broncos, and whether the Sharks get anywhere near the Roosters.
For the rest of the Watch Guide, the NRLM and QDub have been rated as normal (i.e. based on form Elo ratings). For QCup and NSW Cup, I just did a bit of a vibes-based star rating. Obviously, you should just watch all the finals games this weekend, irrespective of notional quality because in a matter of weeks, you won’t have club footy anymore. A couple weeks after that, it’ll be the off-season. Cherish it while you have it.
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Notes
Apologies for last week’s email with no title. Like all mistakes, it will probably happen again.
Breakaway R360 league launch dealt blow after World Rugby application withdrawn. That underwhelmed even my expectations. You can safely disregard any R360 news (until I broker a deal to sell them the Roosters).
Cooper Bai’s NRL debut heightens Titans’ split with Broncos-aligned Burleigh Bears
Darren Lockyer in shock talks to buy English Super League club, London Broncos
It's good that the Broncos finally gave up the record for fastest NRL try conceded. Thanks Manly.
On TV rights, from earlier in the year: “He explains that looming gambling advertising restrictions are making potential broadcast suitors very nervous about the ability to recoup rights fees through advertising revenue from wagering operators.”
This week in PNG: Visa breaks new ground to partner with PNG RFL and Kumul Petroleum renews sponsorship of PNG Kumuls
Farewell to Mark Nicholls and Kenny Bromwich