Furries are Souths' future
I could call it the "NRLW season preview" but then none of you would open it. This works better.
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NRLW SEASON PREVIEW SPECTACULAR
The NRLW is back and finally, we have some real sport. The format and clubs remain unchanged from last year with the added bonus of no set restarts, as God intended. 12 of the 17 NRL clubs will play each other once with the top six progressing to the finals.
Last season was dominated by a hitherto-undefeated Roosters side losing the grand final to the Broncos, as is right and proper, with the rest of the competition at some distance. The Titans scraped into the finals, the Cowboys finally put together a good season and the Sharks and Knights were in the mix. In the absence of any major destabilising forces, this year is likely to promise more of the same.
As the season kicks off on Thursday night, here is my season preview in the form of a reverse order predicted ladder:
12. Bulldogs - The highest profile Bulldog is either Tayla Preston or Ash Quinlan, which seems a dubious proposition. Almost the entire roster is signed for this season and no further. If I was a Bulldogs fan, I’d be concerned that they aren’t going to be able to field a team in 2027 but there are more pressing matters in 2026. I’m sure Gus is all over it.
11. Dragons - While the Dragons are perpetually terrible, and fortunate that the Warriors have rejoined to the league to prevent them from being the only active foundation team to not have won a title, at some point they have to put it together. I approached the men’s season with largely the same philosophy and that has not gone well, and Taliah Fuimaono does not replace Raecene McGregor and Shenae Ciesiolka does not replace Indie Bostock (over a three-to-five year window), but c’mon. Do something. This is not a high bar. Teagan Berry is not going to fix this by herself.
10. Raiders - The Raiders finished last season where they should have based on their underlying statistics. They have some good but not exceptional players, these being the property of Brisbane and Sydney. Krystal Blackwell and Sheridan Gallagher are good gets to lift them off the bottom of the ladder.
9. Cowboys - This is not me having a go at the Cowboys out of a latent NRLM rivalry. I have always been a big supporter of the Wowboys/Cowgirls/whatever your preferred nomenclature. However, you have no halves. That seems like a big problem. Tillett retired and Dibb left for Newcastle, one of a few solid players to depart. Manzelmann can lead but someone needs to kick the bloody ball. The solution seems to be relying on union players? Also, Jakiya Whitfeld is out with pregnancy. The rest of the team is not too bad. I thought this was going to be a spoon contender but there are some real disasters-in-waiting out there.
8. Tigers - While the Tigers have been little more than a speedbump since entering the league, this off-season has seen them add Holli Wheeler, Shaylee Bent and Raecene McGregor, three players who lend some skill and plenty of experience to the group of children being fostered at Concord. With Sarah Togatuki and Emily Bass, there’s something resembling a core forming.
7. Knights - The punditry like to confuse the Knights’ couple of good years, in which Newcastle took advantage of a market inefficiency where they were willing to spend money and no one else was, with an inherent quality of the Knights’ approach to women’s football. With a couple of exceptions, those players are no longer there. While there are still good players in Newcastle, this is not an unstoppable juggernaut. This is a league-average program.
6. Eels - The Parramatta roster has become sneakily good. They only added a few players, Keilee Joseph being the marquee, and didn’t lose anyone of consequence over the off-season. They have Joseph and Elsie Albert up front, Rory Owens and Abbi Church at the back, and recent U19 Origin players like Ginn, Alo and McWilliams. That’s not bad. Rachael Pearson might be too slow to compete at the top echelon but she still has enough to keep this team from dropping too far down the standings, if they can just put it all together to challenge the bluebloods [citation needed].
5. Sharks - One of my blindspots is that I’ve never really gotten what the Sharks offer. At some point, the record is the record and Cronulla have never finished lower than sixth. Give me the China Polata redemption arc, combined with a career season for Chantay Kiria-Ratu.
4. Titans - The Titans have not returned to the lofty heights of the 2023 season which, if you look at that year’s roster, is not much of a surprise in retrospect. However, there has been turnover and Gold Coast have been quick to jump on a lot of young talent to keep the damage caused by the loss of Mato and Bent to a minimum. You get Brown, Elliston and Chapman as your veterans and then it feels like every young up-and-comer is currently at Robina.
3. Broncos - The Broncos lost a fair whack of the premiership winning roster, as the free market is wont to do, but they managed to replace some of it in the aggregate. Nu’uausala and Joseph are gone, in comes Yarrow and Mato. Broughton leaves, we get Southwell. There’s no replacing Hufanga but it is what it is. Expecting a good year but not a repeat.
2. Warriors - People got too excited about the Warriors’ return last year but this year, they really have swept up all the latent Kiwi talent and brought them home. Four players from the defending premiers defected, including the incredible Stacey Waaka, which should take last year’s average team and turn them into contenders.
1. Roosters - The Blues swept the series and nearly one-half of all Blues caps this year went to Roosters.1 They are not going to fuck this up. They’re going undefeated. You earned this, New South Wales. Enjoy it. This is your team.
Talking about yourself is the single greatest engagement ha-
Normally, I would put in a little spiel about the changing internet and how hard it is to reach people but I am going to keep it to a simple request this week.
Around the grounds
Bulldogs 30 defeated Titans 12. Valiant effort, etc, etc. I did briefly try to contemplate a Bulldogs fan who lives in the Gold Coast suburbs and my brain shut down. Moving on. With the imminent kickoff of the NRLW, we will soon start dropping men’s games from the recap.
Roosters 24 defeated Broncos 12. Playing NRL? I’ll show you something interesting.
The two types of teams are fraud and bad. All teams fall into these two categories. Roosters? Frauds. Broncos? Bad.
Warriors? Frauds. Tigers? Bad. Contrary to what you may have heard, the Bulldogs are actually bad.
Dolphins 26 defeated Warriors 24. It would have been classic Dolphins to capitulate in this scenario, exactly as they have many times before, but not today! Cobbo redeemed his numerous handling errors that led to conceding points by scoring the try that mattered most. Lemuelu had a fantastic game. Brad Schneider’s presence is a greater atrocity than anything Ben Roberts-Smith committed and the Dolphins should be held accountable. The Warriors lacked creativity in attack - the Barnett crash ball almost worked once in the ten times tried - and were prone to the kinds of lapses the Panther-types in this league will feast on (probably), although none were as poor as the Phins losing possession for not having a dummy half.
Outside of Magic Round and Perth, this is the first Dolphins game to record a crowd in excess of 40,000 that did not also involve the Broncos. The cheer when Sam Healey scored was both deafening and sustained. It’s nice to be here at the start of a new rivalry. Let’s hear from the fans:
In a seesawing, dramatic and highly entertaining encounter where most of the key statistical areas finished relatively even, the Dolphins were easily the more dangerous attacking unit — making eight line-breaks to five (it was 6-1 at one stage) and 48 tackle-breaks to 30.
The fanbase venting is certain to zero on diabolical displays from Adam Pompey and Ali Leiataua, again exposing the Warriors’ age-old lack of genuine quality and depth in the centres in jarring and costly fashion.
Cowboys 26 defeated Panthers 12. Hahahahahahahaha… hahahahhahahahaha… haaaaah. Two weeks in a row. Nice. This was a slow battle and then the result happened all at once. You could tell the Cowboys were putting their whole asses into this one for Taumalolo. Considering I was prepared to write this result off weeks in advance, the Cowboys are now 9-7 with eight games to go, a schedule that includes the Eels, Broncos, Raiders, Tigers and Titans. Winning four should get them into eighth. If they show half the ticker they did in this one, they’ll be in the finals.
Capras 51 defeated Cutters 12 (M). The Capras sported an excellent retro jersey for the return leg of the Friends of Coal Bowl. While I dipped in and out of this game, the stats reflect my impressions: the Cutters did not have a lot of ball (36% possession). I attributed this to errors but Mackay and Central were similar in this regard. The Capras just made way more metres and scored way more points and when they did err, it was in less catastrophic places than the Cutters. Whether this is the time to write off Mackay’s chances this year, we’ll probably need more sample size but jeez, can’t be having this if you want to break that drought.
Australia 0 drew Paraguay 0.
Algeria 3 drew Austria 3. Familiarise yourself with the Disgrace of Gijón, in which West Germany and Austria conspired to eliminated Algeria from the 1982 Cup. In 2026, Algeria and Austria could both advance on a draw but if one team won, the loser would be eliminated. Find the last ten minutes or so of this game (or settle for this video). Some of the funniest sport you will ever witness.
The future of Slater
Queensland coach Billy Slater drops State of Origin contract bombshell on Maroons:
Billy Slater has dropped a bombshell on the Maroons after revealing he won’t be signing a contract extension with Queensland and his Origin coaching future hinges on a handshake agreement.
Slater is on the cusp of guiding Queensland to a fourth series win from five years in charge of the Maroons heading into Wednesday week’s decider against the NSW Blues at Suncorp Stadium.
The 43-year-old remains off-contract with the Queensland Rugby League beyond this series amid speculation he could take charge of the Melbourne Storm if veteran coach Craig Bellamy retires at season’s end.
Bellamy, 66, revealed earlier this year that he had been diagnosed with a neurodegenerative disorder and there is no guarantee he will remain in charge of the Storm beyond 2026.
After winning his first two Origin series (2022-23) in charge, the QRL announced Slater had committed to a three-year extension to lead the Maroons for the 2024-26 series.
It seems obvious which way this is going to go but speaks to a point Ben Ikin made a few years ago about the coaching pathway being an important part of the QRL’s purpose. Can’t help but notice that Darius Boyd has been doing a pretty good job with the juniors.
Intermission
Our (maybe) autistic king rides again in QCup. Billy Walters hits Jack Ahearn with a show and go for the Magpies’ second try in their 20-14 victory over the Devils.
Souths’ new mascot family
Reggie is an old man, both as a character and the guy in the suit (who beat up a child). He is therefore representative of 95% of Souths’ fanbase. Like Russell Crowe (who threw a phone at a hotel employee).
The rest, though, appear to be designed to appeal to a new, more inclusive generation of fans. Think Poochy but less proactive and more woke. While I had some jokes about the rabbits opting for non-traditional identities, there was a very good chance of coming across mean-spirited about something that is very clearly meant for children, a distinct group of people from the many millennials that maintain a child’s mentality.
Frankly, the last thing I need is to be cancelled for “Ruby self-identifies as neurodivergent. She is neurodivergent but not in the way she thinks,” and “Jack is on the verge of becoming an ace gym junkie. He will later win at least two grand final mascot races.” It’s not worth it. Still, let's just say you wouldn't have to work very hard to convince me Oliver was poly, although I don't know which suffix is applicable. Maybe he doesn't either.
Instead, my primary conclusion is that the Grand Old Club sees furries as its future. While Souths claims that…
Everything you need to know as a parent or guardian. All content on this site is family-safe, ad-free and South Sydney Rabbitohs approved.
…wait until the shippers get hold of this to make Rabbitohs mascot yaoi.2
Further reading - Andrew McCutchen: “Furries”
Upcoming slate
Super League has been something of a challenge this year, even in highlights format, but I did want to provide an honourable mention to the French Derby this weekend. Les Dracs have won all three previous meetings but Catalans are very weak and Toulouse are punchy. In fact, the three promoted teams are all at least two wins clear of Huddersfield on the bottom of the ladder, which is something of a miracle (except for the Giants and their fans).
Pride vs Jets, QCup, Saturday 3pm, Barlow Park
The Pride have had five, five, draws from 12 games. Five. The Jets are shaping as this year’s dark horses to track the Dolphins deep into the finals, once the Falcons have had their inevitable accident (they remain one of the luckiest teams in football this year). It’s 3rd versus 4th on the ladder and a real test for the Northern team to see if they’re legit or going to end up with Sunshine Coast in the bin.
Broncos vs Cowboys, NRLW, Saturday 5.15pm, Suncorp
While the defending premiers going up against a neutered steer of a North Queensland side is going to be about as entertaining as the last three attempts, in which the margin has increased with each meeting, I can’t go past the Queensland derby aspect, even if the better derby is Titans-Broncos and the Titans get a reality check out of the gate against the Roosters. Anyway, it’s better than Eels-Tigers.
Knights vs Dolphins, NRLM, Sunday 4.05pm, McDonald Jones
The Dolphins have now won eight in a row, which is as good a streak as they ever had in the BRL when it mattered. Rugby League Project lists from June 8 to August 10 in 1986, including a win over every other team in the league, as the Dolphins’ longest winning streak in that competition.3 Newcastle presents the first of the three key wins because these games are always interminable slogs. If the Dolphins can move the ball fast enough and prevent the Knights from putting everyone to sleep, then they can get to nine. Unfortunately, Brad Schneider will probably be named to play.
Say hello to Hazza, Roon Crew
I already regret writing that. Sorry but there’s no way to change it. Thank you for your support though.
I was thinking of listing off the nicknames for every Rooner but I was worried I would inadvertently come up with a name that you would personally find offensive; we’re being very sensitive this week. I am also not creative enough to come up with 30 concepts at the level of e.g. “Burmanese Python”, “Forty-seven Rohin”, “Marz Attackz” or “Bundaberg’s Rose”. There was a lot of Thommo, Ando, Chucko, etc that, while Australian, is not funny unless you think being the Other, Other Davo is a good gag.
Also, I suspect everyone stopped reading when I started talking about Rabbitoh fanfic. I did my best to bury that as low down the newsletter as I could.
If you have by some miracle managed to grit your teeth to push through that, or want to read a meandering 5,000 word piece later this week about NRL expansion that may or may not be happening, or want a bad nickname that is mostly annoying, you may want to consider an upgrade to a paid subscription.
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Stats pop
I have built out the Super League part of The Almanac with statistics from current and historical seasons. It will not incorporate last weekend’s results at time of publication but it will soon after. The in-season stats include a list of players by Wins Above Reserve Grade called the Chap 200.
There’s just one, small, teeny tiny problem. The top 50 chaps are all wingers, fullbacks and centres with a couple of halves. The best forward is Catalans’ Zac Lipowicz at Chap #54. I was clued in to the issue when the All-Time* (*2019 to present) Super League Chaps had Bevan French at #8 and Jai Field at #10.
This is not the first time I’ve tried to build player ratings for Super League and I encountered this problem last time but still didn’t do anything to fix it. Super League data does not include for the amount of time on field, which is naturally lower for forwards than it is for backs, and I have not made an attempt to adjust production based on the listed position. Whereas Australian player ratings are based on FTy and PTy, I only put together FTy for the Super League (and even then, took out tackle busts).
Still some tweaking to do but getting the NRLW up and running will take precedence.
Nickelware
The Dolphins have taken the lead from the Broncos by one draw with a game in hand. It is a strangely even Affiliates Premiership this year, with each of the confederations have a good team, a mediocre team and a bad team. Only the Free States are at some remove from the rest of the field.
Wynnum’s grip on the shield is slipping. After taking a very early lead with their success in the junior competitions, both the Bears and Falcons are now within one win with several months still to play. Both clubs’ men’s and women’s teams are looking stronger than the Seagulls.
Read this
Campo - Why the Dolphins clash with the Warriors is the NRL’s unlikeliest blockbuster
Eye Test - Why Manly can lay claim to the best defense in the NRL
The Sportress - Six, Again: The Rhythms
Storm Machine - Game 757 – S29E17 Review
Unabridged - Turkey? Türkiye?
SportsIndustryAU - Australia should host the World Cup and other fairy tales
Notes
Despite losing to both the Titans and Cowboys in consecutive weeks, the Panthers have conceded 13.9 points per game, the 18th least in NRL history through 17 rounds. Of the 17 teams ahead of them, 9 won their grand final (‘07 ‘12 ‘20 Storm, ‘08 Seagles, ‘10 Dragons, ‘13 Roosters, ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 Panthers).
I can’t look at this directly, it feels too dangerous, but has Daley weakened the Blues team in an attempt to salvage the series? It’s like he’s making it too easy to spring a trap. I am not going to think otherwise until there’s about 10 to go.
The camp that is in favour of electing PVL as god-emperor of rugby league thinks they have found a loophole to bypass the democratic process. While I think it is unlikely that will work, it can serve as a tactic to improve the sense of inevitability of PVL’s accession to godhead, weakening resistance, and further undermines Dave Trodden’s institutionalist thesis that this is the commission we have to have. Interestingly, the comments on the Courier Mail article are largely negative, suggesting that this might be a bridge too far, even for the right wing cranks of the rugby league electorate.
Oryn Keeley off to the Storm. Farewell, we’ll always have the 2024 QCup grand final. Now you are dead to me.
Riley Price to the Warriors, as the Dolphins clear house.
Between Josiah Karapani and Junior Amone appearing at Wynnum, it is another banner week for rugby league’s most ethical club.
Two charts that seem broadly relevant to the moment: A fifth of Leave voters have died and political ideology is the strongest predictor of Messi-Ronaldo preference. That cognitive reflection is biased toward Messi but short form video to CR7 confirms several other priors.
Pro-One Nation Facebook groups appear to be run by foreign ‘meme factories’ that monetise content
DR Congo superfan denied US visa to support team at World Cup
The Broncos had fewer than 40% for the losing team, which is an important distinction.
I did not look up whether these characters are meant to form a heteronormative nuclear family, as many humans do, however I don’t believe those details will stop the perverts shippers.
The QCup record is listed as 12, set in 2022.