Have a bit of concurrent action
Broncos, Falcons and Cowboys win, Titans, Dolphins and Hunters lose, NRLW preview, TV, Origin and a shorter season
Around the grounds
Broncos 30 defeated Knights 14. This looked a lot more like what we saw of the Broncos in 2023 than what has been served up this year. There were plenty of frustrating mistakes but the other team was so completely overwhelmed that Brisbane still managed to put up a decent score flying down the sides while letting in a few tries at the end to make it look more competitive than it was. It is pretty much all knock-out footy for the Broncos from here, a race to see whether they get to 12 wins (four more needed) or 12 losses (two more needed) first.
Panthers 28 defeated Dolphins 26. I refuse to believe Luai the jazz flautist, the least cool instrument in the jazz ensemble, and Edwards, the most boring fullback in the league-slash-Peter Dutton impersonator, meaningfully change the outcome of this game, so I instead chose to believe that this means the 2024 Panthers are gettable. Probably not by the Dolphins but someone can roll them in a prelim or something? That’d be nice given 2016 was the last time a team other than the Storm, Roosters or Panthers won the premiership, although we’re probably not breaking that streak this year.
The signs are positive for the Phins that they can compete with the best, more or less, but they really could have done with banking this win. It was there for the taking with two and a half minutes to go, even down a man, with a shot at field goal that I would’ve made that would have wound off enough clock to make it nearly impossible for Penrith to win.
Falcons 66 defeated Hunters 8. It’s tempting to read a lot into this game. Have the Hunters been reading their own press? Have they gone to water under the pressure of potentially breaking their finals drought? Or did they just have one of those afternoons PNG are prone to, where they just kind of don’t feel like playing footy all that much? It wasn’t a great watch because even with 14 tries scored, there weren’t many highlights. The Falcons look good and I still think they’ll be there in the latter weeks of the finals.
Sea Eagles 38 defeated Titans 8. The Gold Coast Titans we’ve come to know, expect and mostly detest showed up, rather than the flashes of promise that have bloomed irregularly this season but as recently as last week and the first ten minutes of this game. We’re at the stage where whatever the Titans do does not matter in the slightest and yet there is somehow six weeks to go until they’re done for the year.
Cowboys 20 defeated Bulldogs 18. Nick Campton on Boom Rookies described this as having the emotional stakes of a finals game but without the quality, and I am inclined to agree. It’s the kind of win you want as a Cowboys fan nursing finals hopes. While it wasn’t a pure grind, it was hard fought and the brand of victory that, until six weeks ago, you haven’t seen against an above average team since 2022. There’s still a hard road ahead but their position is the least precarious in Queensland.
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NRLW preview
Normally (that is, last year), I would do a full standalone post previewing the NRLW. In a recurring theme of the year, time constraints have prevented this. Also, as we saw last year, season previews are a bit of a fool’s errand and the short women’s season leaves little room for error. Good teams can have losing records and winning records can miss the finals.
Given that, here is a condensed version of the preview where I try not to prevaricate too much.
Broncos - I am very skeptical of the Broncos. We saw flashes of what could be in last year’s 6-3 campaign, especially in games against the Raiders, the Dragons and to an extent, the preliminary final against the Knights. As a body of work though, it didn’t feel or particularly look like a team that should have been playing finals. But run through the 1-13 of the lineup and this should be a contender. A starting pack of some combination of Clark, Lenarduzzi, Denman, Brill (presumably still out with a calf tear), Nu'uausala, Teitzel, Rapana and Joseph is almost as good as any in the league. Even if Destiny Brill has been a bit off the boil, Annetta Nu'uausala had a good BMD campaign (while Brianna Clark was involved in multiple fights in that competition), Keilee Joseph is a huge get and will have to work hard to stay in front of Mariah Denman.
In the backs, we have the immortal Brigginshaw and Gayle Broughton (injured - back), a talented if not particularly harmonious pairing, and the Origin pairing of Robinson and Ciesiolka (injured but can’t remember what) on one side and the human battering ram (with huge defensive mobility issues) of Mele Hufanga on the other. The remaining wing spot could be up for grabs. Convicted biter Ash Werner was the incumbent but the Capras’ Bree Spreadborough has the nod this week. I don’t personally believe Maddick should be a NRLW fullback and might prefer to see her switch with Broughton to have a bit more size on exit sets and let Maddick UNLEASH her passing game, if we have to have them both. The Broncos had a good 2023, have a good team for 2024 but even now, I remain skeptical that they can deliver consistently. Show me what you can do.
Cowboys - The Cowboys were the only team to defeat the Knights last year, so in a 2-7 inaugural campaign, that’s something. I had pretty high hopes for North Queensland, on which they failed to deliver, but I remain optimistic things will improve this season. Will the Cowboys contend? Almost certainly not, especially when all of the Origin players are concentrated in last year’s top four. Back at Easter, we talked about the Cowboys’ pack and the lineup named is not too far off what I expected, so I stand by my assessment of fine but not exceptional, pending form and injuries. There are good elements across the pitch - you don’t need me to tell you about Emma Manzelmann or Kirra Dibb or that China Polata should be fit for the season (but is in the back row?) - but the drops from the best to the bench and then from the bench to the rest are bigger than ideal.
Developing an identity for the Cowboys, with a lot of talent coming from the region, should be the easiest job in the league and that should provide some commitment and consistency to help bridge the talent gap. If Ricky Henry can do that, get the team moving forward and pick up three wins against the basement NSW teams, then that would be a pass mark. Throw in a win against a Queensland team and the season becomes a success, even without a finals appearance.
Titans - Last year’s grand finalists are running it back. We’ve already lost Chantay Kiria-Ratu, Destiny Mino-Sinapati, Siena Lofipo and Ivana Lolesio for the year and losing four talented propsects before we have kicked a ball is not ideal. Kiria-Ratu and Lofipo did an admirable job filling the halves roles last season as extremely inexperienced juniors, so we see Lauren Brown drop back to partner a returning Taliah Fuimaono and one last run at rake for veteran Brittany Breayley-Nati. Elsewhere it’s all class: Pelite, Chapman, Bass, Hale, Bent and breakout-to-superstar-level Shannon Mato. Don’t forget about Niall Williams-Guthrie and there’s some good talent around the edges of the roster in the likes of Lily Kolc, Rilee Jorgensen and Dannii Perese. If the Titans can get on the park and execute, we have an extremely strong contender for this year’s premiership. Anything less than another grand final appearance would feel like falling short.
The rest - Assume the Knights and Roosters will be good until further notice, although the pack edges closer to Newcastle each year and they have ex-Cowboys coach Ben Jeffries to get used to. Expecting a lot more out of the Raiders, as a lot of their young signings are looking like winners if they can fix their defence. Not expecting a lot out of the Tigers or Eels and neither are betting markets. Sharks and Dragons, and more former than the latter, have the potential to play spoiler if they can stick something together but I remain unconvinced that St George Illawarra can do anything right.
Origin III
Origin feels like a million years ago now, as focus shifts to the new NRLW season and the NRLM finals, but there is still a little content grist left to mill before we forget about it again for another 10 months.
Most of the Maroons did about as well could be expected under the circumstances as a team, while, somehow, individually having mostly average-to-poor outings - Carrigan was an obvious exception - and that’s about the most you can reasonably ask for.
The hamstringing missteps in selections (I spent a lot of time on Capewell and not enough time on Nanai, who is officially a bum) and the deployment of Ponga in a game with no space available will remain equally infuriating and mystifying. Still, there is time to calm down and offer the QRL infrastructure time to learn lessons, as well as waiting for better forwards to come back from injury, before we have a full blown meltdown in 2025.
As promised, the Blues’ victory was hailed as particularly meaningful. Let’s hope this isn’t the first step to them Getting Origin. If that ends up being Slater’s legacy, I’m going to [redacted].
More:
The 2024 Interstate Championship goes to New South Wales, with a 5-3 series victory, their fifth since 2018.
Boooooooo!
A thought experiment
Good Origin ratings again. Despite being the on- and off-field pinnacle of the game, some people - including the Broncos CEO but hopefully no one reading this newsletter! - still grouse about the impact on the club season, as if whether one Sydney suburb or another gets a trophy is the only thing that makes rugby league compelling. Compare Origin’s sustained four decades of success to the dogshit ratings for the all-western Sydney final a couple of years ago.
While TV ratings can be derided as fugazi made-up numbers, useful for broadcasters’ PR and ad sales and not much else, there are no better metrics for measuring what people actually want to watch on TV, which is important because there is a huge gap between what people say and what they actually do.
For those inclined to complain about the impact on clubs, here’s a thought experiment. Most years, the men’s games rate around 3 million each and the women’s games rate around 1 million, based on this year. On a pro rata basis of viewers, from a total annual audience of 110 to 120 million year, State of Origin is about 10% of the value of the broadcast deal, varying year to year depending on competitiveness of the games and the series, etc, although its probably proportionally higher due to Origin’s consistently wider geographical reach than the NRL.
In this scenario, your club does not have to make its players available for Origin but has to give up 10% of its NRL central grant (~$1.5 million/year, varying a bit from club to club), which is instead divided between the state bodies, or it can make its players available for Origin and gets to keep the money. What would you choose if your livelihood depended on the answer?
Bear in mind that very good players, the kind that play rep matches, like the $100k top-up to their bank balances they get from Origin plus the bonus payments in their contracts.
If it was a 10% loss of salary cap (~$1.2 million currently), would you change your answer? In your essay, consider what would the end of season ladder would look like if the best players from e.g. the Panthers and the Storm did not take breaks for Origin.
Also consider that the current Wednesday night broadcast is to maximise ratings, which is another way of saying that it allows the most number of people to participate in the televised spectacle, so any changes to accommodate NRL clubs’ preferences, e.g. moving to end of season or playing on Sundays, should have similar, but more muted, impacts on the clubs’ bottom lines.
Everyone’s favourite topic: anti-siphoning
Would you look at that?
Firstly, a correction to previous commentary about anti-siphoning:
The Prominence and Anti-siphoning Bill, which passed both houses of parliament this month, gives free-to-air broadcasters first purchase rights to the NRL competition and men’s and women’s State of Origin series, preventing them from being offered straight to pay TV and other subscription-charging services.
But it only covers sports delivered to televisions by aerials and not on digital platforms, towards which viewers are increasingly migrating.
I think I had it backwards regarding streaming, that it would be beholden to FTA interests and not treated separately, but haven’t been back to check if I misread or the original reporting was wrong or if something’s changed.
Then to the meat of it:
The National Rugby League is set to go to market for its next broadcast deal before the end of the year, seizing on new anti-siphoning laws that pave the way for it to sell streaming rights to global players such as Amazon and Netflix before a fast-tracked review of the scheme in 2026.
The NRL’s current five-year media rights deal with Foxtel, Nine Entertainment, Sky New Zealand and other international and radio partners is worth a combined $400 million a season and is not due to expire until 2027.
Except that the article doesn’t follow with any quotes from anyone that matters. The impetus suggested is that the gap between how streaming and FTA is treated might be closed in a future review, so there’s a revenue opportunity if the NRL can get a deal across the line early but this feels more like a way to punch up potential interest in a story that is about an obscure piece of cultural legislation.
I would expect the expansion masterplan needs to be resolved first so the NRL can get paid for the inventory it plans to produce, with Abdo starting to make noises about the value of the women’s game for which the NRL has been paid in-kind, rather than with cash.
We’ll wait and see but based on V’Landys’ past behaviour, Nine and Fox will get a magic carpet ride to the rights, irrespective of the law, and Amazon need not apply.
Intermission
I didn't say there were no highlights.
Upcoming Slate
NRLW - Sharks vs Cowboys at Shark Park, Saturday 11.05am
After giving the NRLW season kick off some clear air on Thursday night, we’re back to where the Controlling Body seems to think the ladies belong at 11.05am with the Sharks playing the Cowboys in Sydney while the same mens sides face off later that day in Townsville. Make it make sense! There are five games across two comps on Saturday. If you’re not going to worry about pairing them up logistically, kick off at 2.00, 3.30, 5.00, 6.30 and 8.00 and have a bit of concurrent action. You could fit in 4 NRLW and 3 NRLM games if you kick off every hour from 2pm to 8pm. Watching multiple rugby league games simultaneously is the finest thing a person can do.
Anyway, I think this the most compelling Q3 matchup - the Titans and Broncos should win theirs easily - and an important test of what I wrote about the Cowboys above. I don’t expect a win, unless some weird stuff happens, but a good showing would give North Queensland something to build the season on. Tip: Sharks
NRLM - Broncos vs Bulldogs at Suncorp, Saturday 3pm
There’s something very deflating about coming from a grand final last year and now playing for the season against a team that by all moral rights be in spoon contention again this year. And yet, that is where the Brisbane Broncos find themselves. The Broncos will both need to try and execute if they want to win this game and keep finals hopes alive. Merely trying and dropping the ball a million times in equally frustrating fashion probably isn’t enough. They’re capable but by no means guaranteed. Tip: Broncos
NRLM - Dolphins vs Titans at Suncorp, Sunday 4.05pm
It’s been too long since the last Queensland derby. This is the final one for the season not to feature the Broncos and Brawl on the Beach is the craziest of the potential combinations, so let’s enjoy the mismatch of the staid potential finalist Dolphins up against the crazy Titans with nothing to lose (except their dignity, again). The Dolphins are also 3-0 against the Titans, so Gold Coast might want to do something about that. I don’t think they have it in them if Redcliffe can just get a few key plays away early and sap the Titans of their will to cohere and defend. Tip: Dolphins
(Tips 29 / 61)
Watch Guide
Notes
Hot seat: Mackay Cutters have made the difficult decision to part ways with Hostplus Cup Head Coach, Michael Comerford. A bit weird for mine, both in the release phrasing and that the performance on the field was fine, if a bit of a let down after a hot start. Perhaps Comerford smells another opportunity.
Cold seat: Western Clydesdales are thrilled to announce the re-signing of Jason Alchin as Head Coach of the Hostplus Cup team for the 2025 season. Not particularly surprising but the Clydesdales won’t want to get beaten by the Jets 48-12 again next year.
Overthinking lines on a Rugby League field for several minutes
I’m officially over the short drop out. It was a fun little inefficiency five years ago, now it’s just a dice roll undermining the game’s wider strategic merits. Done it again PVL!
Why a 20-team NRL competition solves rugby league’s biggest problems. Andrew Webster with his usual passing shot at being thought provoking without quite sticking the landing. Mostly I dispute “Yes, Redcliffe is directly north of Brisbane, not part of Brisbane” because that’s not how cities actually work and equivalent to saying Parramatta is not part of Sydney. However, I too am in favour of a shorter draw but even with Abdo talking about how the NRL are open to ideas, I just don’t see the broadcasters wrapping their heads around the season being full of dreck that can be replaced without losing much other than generic NRL-branded content. They will want their cut and in a 19 round season, you’re giving up a Broncos-Cowboys and Broncos-Dolphins, which would be like giving up an (low rating) Origin game in terms of total viewers. Alternatively, with four divisions of five, you’d play everyone in-division home and away and everyone else once for a total schedule of 23 rounds (or only two opposing divisions on a rotating basis for 18 rounds).
Has Origin revealed a glaring issue in the NRL expansion debate? Short answer is ‘no’ and the longer answer is ‘admitting the Easts Tigers to the NRL does not improve the pathway to Origin for Queenslanders’. The question posed is ‘who are the youngsters coming through?’ to which my response is Reece Walsh is 22 years old and his successor is probably only 12 or 13 years old. It would be deeply weird if you knew who that was. Anyway, the biggest issue with the Tigers’ bid is that it fails to give us a really compelling reason to admit them that the Dolphins don’t already address. A huge potential fanbase whose needs aren’t being met by the NRL would be ideal but seems unlikely to emerge at this stage. Being the fifth NRL North team though, that has legs.
The one CRISIS that the NRL overlooked with Perth Bears and PNG (bringing in a team in black, red and white, followed by a team in black, red and gold). Total views: 17.
I hadn’t clocked this but in last week’s Falcons’ newsletter:
This could be potentially be our last ever home game at Sunshine Coast Stadium (if we don't receive a home semi-final) before the Stadium is redeveloped over the next few years.
Hopefully we get another game in at home this season but if not, we thank you all for support at home not only this season, but all of the previous season's. It has been a wonderful home ground for all of our player's and staff to play out of over the years. Whilst there will be some short-term pain over the next few years while the new Stadium is built, there will certainly be some long-term gain and some fabulous facilities for our sponsors, season members, players and staff to return to at the new Stadium.
Related: First look at Brisbane’s no-frills Olympic stadium. That’s uh not great and is completely unusable during the day for at least five months of the year. Is this really that hard? It’s too expensive to do it properly is the catch-cry of every bad decision ever made.
International: Ukraine league boys tell US ambassador: Putin is a dickhead. Kind of interesting if a bit convoluted story.