It’s a real everything’s coming up Milhouse situation
It’s a real everything’s coming up Milhouse situation
Cowboys double, Titans double, Broncos and Dolphins lose
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
Around the grounds
Cowboys (M) 48 defeated Tigers 30. The allegations haunting Railway Estate all year have been that the Cowboys are not a Serious Team. Until early June, you had plenty of scoreboard evidence to support this claim without needing to delve deeper into structural or strategic issues. The Cowboys pulled out three in a row in May, lost badly to the Warriors for no particular reason, and then won five of their last six to be 12-8 and poised to clinch a finals spot at some point in the coming weeks. While these are the results of a Serious Team, the on-field performance against the Tigers hardly helped the case. You can’t ship 30 points to the team in last place, especially when they played a chunk of the game a man down, and hope to beat the charges. The NRL has gifted you an almighty advantage and it wasn’t squandered but kind of was. It doesn’t bode particularly well for a deep run but that’s a later problem.
Roosters 40 defeated Dolphins 34. We were so close to a team scoring 38 points or more and losing, which would have been a first. The Roosters are about as serious as the Cowboys, as proved by a hobbled Dolphins side scoring 34 and keeping the final result within a score. The Phins put together another solid performance, neatly illustrating the gap between systems (pretty good) and talent (enh). At 9-10, the Dolphins can only really afford to drop one game out of Warriors, Dogs, Storm, Broncos and Knights. If they deserve to punch their ticket, they’ll find four wins out of that lot. Otherwise, they’ll let another promising start to the season slip from their wet rubbery grasp. One more note: Max Plath - good???
Titans (W) 28 defeated Tigers 12. This was not a particularly competitive game but Gold Coast did their best to be slightly less than perfectly clinical in a way that frustrated me, the non-Titans fan that wants them to destroy eight teams by 40 and then go down with congenital heart failure against the Broncos. Two down, albeit two bottom half teams, top of the table, keep it rolling and give Jaime Chapman the ball in space.
Titans (M) 46 defeated Broncos 18. This is the platonic ideal of Walters’ Collapse Broncos but there will be plenty of time to eulogise this period of Brisbane football.
The 2020 Titans were the first Gold Coast team to sweep the Broncos (where multiple games were played in one season) and the 2024 Titans join them in this illustrious club, breaking a run of four straight Broncos wins through 2022 and 2023. Having watched the Titans closely for more than a few years now, it’s hard to point to this as a definite turning point - I will gladly be late when/if that happens than stake any ego on being early - but this is the signature win of Hasler’s tenure so far. Considering how poorly 2024 started, Gold Coast have worked their way to competitiveness in an impressive fashion. While the Tans are still prone to dropping 30 points to the Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs and losing to the Tigers, they’ve won five of their last six, scoring 205 points and conceding just 108. That’s pretty good. While this may rhyme but doesn’t quite feel like a last-five-games-of-2020 scenario; it might be legit. They couldn’t possibly win out and make finals but what if they did?
Roosters 28 defeated Broncos (W) 12. The Broncos played up to the Roosters through 30 minutes, which was reassuring that there’s a NRL team with a pulse in the Brisbane metropolitan area. Then a misnumbering down the left side before half time, an intercept to Jess Sergis and a fumble returned to the house by Tarryn Aiken turned a four point deficit into a certain loss. Somehow I don’t think this will be the last time a series of clumsy, easily preventable mistakes stop the Broncos from finding the desired result. I’ve been resistant to the Mele Hufanga hype but I think she’s looking more mobile? That’s something.
Cowboys (W) 38 defeated Dragons 34. Finally, finally! we see what this team can do. The Cowboys are now 1-0 against Sydney basement teams and the Tigers and Eels may well worry. Points, yes, defence, well, there’s still some work to do but it’s good enough at this tier of the competition. Jakiya Whitfeld, I apologise, I was unfamiliar with your game and it turns out if you throw a few Orchids and Raftstrand-Smiths at the problem, they all go away. China Polata can cut it as a second rower, especially considering the Cowboys’ extensive, borderline problematic, depth in outside backs.
Thank you for reading The Maroon Observer
The true QCup standings
With the QCup awarding bye points, a completely unnecessary invention of Sydney rubes, Townsville (9th) have two more wins than the flailing Wynnum Manly (8th). In fact, the Blackhawks are only one loss behind the fifth-placed Bears. For a team with no real affiliation, that’s an impressive outcome on the year.
I have rectified the bye point ridiculousness below, sorting teams by winning percentage, which is a completely acceptable, normal and straightforward system of arranging a competition ladder that I would normally say eliminates the need for bye points but bye points have no need.
The Pride are running away with the minor premiership, and perhaps the major one, and a lot of games have been decidedly chalky. Average margins are at a five year high (17.5), currently on track to be the ninth highest in 28 seasons of Queensland Cup and the second highest since 2005 (2019 was a blowout season, 18.1). We know who the good teams are, so it feels like we’re just waiting for the regular season to finish so we can get down to business.
There is still a tussle to make the cut as the ladder is still very congested. That tussle is highlighted in yellow. It looks like a clear winning record (>.500) will be required to participate in the post-season, although a positive points difference may be optional.
Pony Picayune
The first edition of The Pony Picayune, a newsletter dedicated to the Brisbane Broncos, was published on Friday last week.
TPP is an experiment with the Section feature of Substack and to see if there’s a wider audience for more targetted content written in a broader, more legible tone (e.g. fewer references to 1994’s Michael Critchton adaptation Rising Sun or 2001’s A Knight’s Tale, starring Heath Ledger).
Stats Drop will make a similar return once I’ve completed a series of extremely tedious tasks in the background, likely sometime during the off-season at present rates of progress.
Just when you think you might have gone off too early, the boys go and give up the biggest ever loss to a team that they think is beneath them to even consider a rival, and only tolerate as a derby mostly out of geographical convenience. It’s a real everything’s coming up Milhouse situation.
The discourse this week has focussed on who will replace Reynolds at halfback. Pam Whaley undid some of her good work last week by suggesting Red Hill throw the bank at Sam Walker. Christ, of all people! This is about the dumbest thing to worry about when it is patently obvious that there are more significant structural issues that need attention. It would be like worrying about the air con not working when your car has no engine.
It just goes to show that it pays to have mates in the media. Unfortunately for those seeking to hide from the consequences of their actions, the discourse will focus its attention where it needs to eventually. If you’re reading this, you’re likely ahead of the curve but the hacks will catch up with reality and then the mainstream fan will follow. Some time later, possibly on a geological time scale, the last Facebook fan will crack. The pressure will come.
Buzz on Perth
In 2024:
DON’T LEAVE PERTH HANGING
The sooner the NRL announces the Perth Bears as the 18th team, the better.
On Friday night, the Roosters v Dolphins match was a sellout at HBF Stadium in Perth, despite the unpopular 6pm kick-off timeslot.
At halftime, the entire crowd chanted, ‘Perth NRL’ with torches turned switched on their phones.
West Coast Eagles were also playing the Gold Coast Suns on Friday night in Perth.
“With the game sold out, it further illustrates the strong support and huge potential for growth of rugby league in WA,” Premier Roger Cook said.
“As a passionate rugby league fan, I’ve long been an advocate for NRL in WA.”
Note the chant of ‘Perth NRL’ and not ‘Perth Bears’ but sure, ram North Sydney down the throats of potential new fans who seem to be presenting a fine-just-get-it-over-with level of consent. Buzz, of course, loves the idea of the Bears coming back because it might keep the looming spectre of his own mortality at bay a little longer.
Anyway, in 2019:
MILLIONS OF REASONS AGAINST AN NRL TEAM
There are enormous challenges an NRL franchise would need to overcome here in Perth.
It’s OK to stage a one-off State of Origin match and have the South Sydney Rabbitohs in town once a season.
This is an AFL-mad city with phenomenal support for the West Coast Eagles. Their average crowd at Optus Stadium is 53,000. They have 80,000 members who spend an average of $800 per head each season.
Last year the club made a profit of almost $8 million.
According to the 2018 annual report, they have $106 million in assets.
The club has also poured $141 million into junior development in WA since its inception in 1986.
The Eagles are almost three times bigger than the Brisbane Broncos.
Perth has a rich sporting history. The Wildcats have been the most dominant team in Australian basketball. The Scorchers are hugely popular in the BBL and Glory were the standout team in this year’s A-League competition.
Yet we all saw what happened to the Western Force in the rugby union, even with the support of local billionaire Twiggy Forrest (who was not at the game on Sunday night).
It just shows what the NRL is up against. The $13 million annual NRL club grant won’t go far in this city.
A new NRL franchise would need additional support for the first decade, like the Gold Coast Suns and GWS Giants get from the AFL. Even the relocation of an established Sydney team would need huge financial support.
I can’t see it happening any time soon.
Can’t possibly imagine what’s changed in the meantime:
I sat there with you at The Everest as Sweet Caroline was being played. I asked you then, is this your greatest achievement as an administrator?
I still can’t quite believe he wrote this somewhere where other people can read it and it’s not just an excerpt from his diary.
Personally, I’m not sure if a $15 million grant makes that much difference to Buzz’s undoubtedly detailed calculations after another five years and a heap of inflation. It makes me question whether - say it quietly - Rothfield even knows what he’s talking about.
Buzz was right about one thing: it didn’t happen any time soon.
Intermission
Lily Peacock rules.
Upcoming Slate
QRLM - Pride vs Falcons at Barlow Park, Saturday 3pm
Top of the table clash, let’s go. Tom Chester made a few waves for running for over 400m last week but it was against the Clydesdales, so it counts for nothing. The Falcons are running out with zero Storm players currently named versus the Pride’s four Cowboys. Stylistically, it’s going to be a match up of North East Coast Offence against what I think is the Pride’s more traditional approach, which will hinge mostly on Jake Clifford with the ball in hand. Looking forward to it. Tip: Pride
NRLW - Broncos vs Titans at Totally Workwear, Sunday 12.45pm
As I pointed out in The Pony Picayune, this has been a tight rivalry since the Titans joined the comp in 2021*. The Titans have won twice from three meetings by a total of three points. I don’t think Gold Coast - imperious, classy, full strength - need to worry too much this weekend but derbys can throw up strange levels of motivation. The Broncos will almost certainly be better again than last week, which was better than the week before, and have Stacey Waaka on the wing to replace Bree Spreadborough and Gayle Broughton returns to the 6. Ciesiolka is in the reserves, so maybe she is not too far off either. Tip: Titans
NRLM - Dolphins vs Warriors at Suncorp, Sunday 2pm
The quality of this is not forecast to be high, however, you could splitscreen this with the end of the women’s SEQ derby if that proves to come down to the wire. What you get for your time is a stadium topped up with Kiwi footy fans, who all seem pretty cool in my ocassional interactions with them, and insight in to whether the Dolphins will be playing finals this year. Based on the ladder, this should be a relatively easy Phins win. Based on the on-field, we’ll see. Tip: Dolphins
(Tips 32 / 65)
Watch Guide
Weather - Brisbane: Saturday 12 - 22 party cloudy, Sunday 13 - 22 showers; Gold Coast: Friday 13 - 21 partly cloudy; Toowoomba: Sunday 9 - 20 partly cloudy; Townsville: Saturday 17 - 26 partly cloudy; Cairns: Saturday 19 - 25 showers; Port Moresby: Sunday 23 - 30 scattered showers.
Notes
Wayne Bennett, among others, to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. I don’t think that’s much of a surprise for anyone other than Roy Masters, who is presumably infuriated Pony Halloway’s inferior club and non-existent representative record has not also been recognised. Where’s Bob Bax and Duncan Thompson? Inducting Arthurson and Quayle, two guys whose unusual combination of arrogance and sleepiness at the wheel precipitated the Super League war, are also in because the NRL doesn’t really know what it is and so doesn’t know how to reckon with its own history but they are generally seen as good blokes, so let’s get them a present. People will complain this is lame and cheap, unbefitting a professional sport. I’ve been telling you the ARLC is lame and cheap for years. What did you think was going to happen?
Life of Rilee: From meeting her idols to playing beside them
Rhys Jacks reaches 150: 'All I wanted to do growing up was play Cup' in contrast to Bryce Donovan: "To play 100 Cup games… it probably wasn’t a goal to play 100 Cup games... the goal was always NRL and it would take as many Cup games as it did until that was ticked off.”
Injuries: Haas, Mam and Smoothy
Rugby League Observer: Schoolboy cup finals set
Cowboys extend major deal with two of Cairns’ biggest NRL schools. Funny that this time last year the Cowboys and Blackhawks were in the mud because of Railway Estate’s attempt to reduce North Queensland to Townsville with a large dose of Sydneycuckery. Once it was made clear what people actually thought of that idea and the region’s tribes patched things up, look at what happens. Cowboys - doing well. Pride - doing very well. Blackhawks - doing better than expected. Cutters - won a premiership (don’t look at the men). I will not be holding my breath for an apology from gas leak Cowboys fans that thought that my critique was couched in Broncos boosterism, rather than having a better understanding of what North Queensland rugby league is meant to be than they did, even if I thought it would take years for my hypothesis to bear out.
Kenya are bidding for the 2028 and 2030 World Cups. Seems unlikely but is mildly more palatable than, say, Saudi Arabia. Let’s see if Kenya’s been in the news for any civil disturbances lately. If I was a betting man, and I’m not, I’d be thinking 2028 in France and 2030 in NZ/PNG based on precisely zero information but they’ll probably pick somewhere ambitious and it’ll fall apart and end up in England or Australia.
Seems like I could wear a bandit mask, a wide brim black hat, a stripy shirt and carry an empty bag with a dollar sign on it and the Bunker would rule that becuase the blindass referee on the field didn’t see that I, the Hamburgler, am trying to steal your cheeseburgers, then it’s play on. I don't think any of the refs know what a ‘stripping action’ is.
Fraud Watches have been issued for the Burleigh Bears, Sydney Roosters and Cronulla Sharks. Jake Averillo has been downgraded to a Fraud Warning. More as it comes to hand.
Good to see Stinky Pete Badel using his opportunity to cover the Olympics to make an ass of himself and be a conduit for transphobia. What is a “biological firestorm” you loser? Why are you doubling down on this? For clout on a dead platform? A job on Sky News After Dark (NRL edition) with Vossy, Erin Molan and Seibold? Way to make the world a better place, you spineless weasel.
Further reading: There are no transgender women boxing in Paris. Or, as succinctly put by Spencer Hall, “The other story the professional moron ranching class used for their own purposes this week involved a dispute over Algerian boxer Imene Khalif. Again, the first order of comedy is asking someone to believe that Algeria would send a trans woman to the Olympics. The second order of comedy: How bad Khalif’s opponent was at boxing.”
Brains: Pentagon Data Shows High Suicide Rates Among Troops Exposed to Blasts. “Blast waves surging repeatedly through the brain can destroy cells, fray connections and lead to a tangle of mental health problems that are often not recognized as being caused by brain injury, including nightmares, insomnia, depression, anxiety, substance abuse and social isolation. Many service members who receive diagnoses of post-traumatic stress disorder may actually have brain injuries that produce similar symptoms, scientists say.” (quick, someone check to see if Badel served in the military)
Blood-Based Concussion Test Approved by FDA: Potential Interest from NHL.
Nickelware
As the Titans themselves pointed out, presumably in the absence of any real honours, the NRL North is within reach of the Gold Coast club. They just need a Broncos loss to seal the deal.
Failing that, they may need to pick up two non-divisional wins more than the Broncos. The run home is Sharks, Dragons, Roosters, Knights and Panthers. This is left as an exercise for the reader.
(I haven’t transferred the rest to Datawrapper yet)
