Welcome to Pony Picayune, a monthly newsletter about the Brisbane Broncos.
I started this season by admitting that I really didn’t know what 2025 was going to bring for the Brisbane Broncos. It’s now August, I’m writing the July recap and I still really don’t know what’s going on.
Every time I’ve tried to pin down a defensible position based on the most recent results, the ground has shifted under me. Broncos look good? Cue a four game losing streak. Broncos look bad? Give me a five wins in a row. Selwyn Cobbo out the door? Hey, welcome back buddy!
I’m looking like a right dingus here.
In July, we got a hilarious depantsing of the one-time premiership favourite and ever-gutless Bulldogs, a par-for-the-course execution of the Titans, a bye, a bad but not that bad loss to the Eels and the complete and utter destruction of the Rabbitohs. That seems fine? Maybe even not a crisis?
We do not need to give much consideration to the Storm game because the Broncos always lose to the Storm. The rapid sprint of injuries to Reynolds, Mam and Cobbo almost renders it eligible for the Young Principle but then, every loss is bizarre because the Broncos are always innovating new ways to lose to Melbourne, so the outcome is much more pedestrian.
With four games to play, the Broncos are 11-9 with a reasonable points difference. They really only need one or two more wins to seal finals. The Broncos could realistically rise as high as fourth or drop as low as ninth but a week 1 elimination final is the most likely outcome.
It’s not clear what happens after that. The competition’s openness has been remarked upon to the point of cliche. No team has managed to imitate convincing for multiple weeks on end and every team is carrying at least a moderate flaw. The premiership race seems likely to coalesce around the Raiders, Storm, Panthers and an un/lucky Make-a-Wish club that will briefly get to enjoy the limelight of a preliminary final.
The Broncos could be there but the idea of this team, with its particular brand of inconsistency, stringing together three or four weeks of their best football seems out there. Then again, basically this roster did basically that only two years ago. So here’s 500 words to say, “I dunno”.
2025 has looked a lot like what I feared 2023 was going to turn into in the early days of that run. It seemed impossible that the breathtaking riskiness would be sustainable - that the passes would stick, the offloads would generate points, the insanity would pay off, that the goal line defence wouldn’t crack - but after six weeks, it was clear that it would. I think 2025 is what happens when the passes don’t stick, the offloads cost territory and possession and the insanity is just frustration. Don’t look at the defence.
A pessimist will tote that up and conclude the Broncos are either missing finals or exiting very early in proceedings. An optimist would suggest it won’t take much from Maguire to put them back into that gear. I don’t know who to listen to.
For the women’s team, things could only be better if the first 20 minutes of the game against the Roosters could be deleted from history. Other than that, the NRLW Broncos have been playing if not flawlessly, then close enough. It is a sign of just how good the Broncos are, especially up through the guts with the likes of Lenarduzzi, Nu’uausala, Sauaso and I had been enjoying Bree Spreadborough’s work, that there’s room to make mistakes and not have to operate with a clean, ruthless efficiency, and still win almost every game with ease.
At 4-1 with the best points difference in the league, thoughts are turning to beyond August. Despite consistently being one of the three best teams in the league, the Broncos haven’t won a finals game since the 2020 grand final, losing semi-finals in three of the last four seasons. With a likely top two finish in sight, especially if they can knock off a surprisingly punchy Newcastle in two weeks, that likely gets them a bye into week 2. That only ratchets up the difficulty in breaking that finals drought but, assuming they get off the bus a bit earlier and stay awake, a win would get them into a grand final.
From there, anything can happen.
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