Let’s fulfill the party directives!
Apologies for the delayed newsletter
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
The state of the NRLW
Given that PVL has given us all we could ever want - novelty expansion teams in Perth, PNG and NZ and riches beyond the wildest imaginations - what other worlds are there to conquer? Oh yeah, there’s the girls:
Negotiations on a new deal are yet to begin, but on the 20th anniversary of the NRL’s Women in League round, Cronulla captain Tiana Penitani-Gray knows what she wants included.
“Being able to expand the salary cap, being able to make the women players full time is definitely a step in the right direction,” she said.
“Take away financial insecurity, take away having to juggle multiple jobs or study alongside the expectation of putting out a professional product.”
What the female playing group is able to extract from the next round of enterprise bargaining will tell us a lot about the future of the NRLW.
My broad thesis is that the NRL has made generally the right strategic decisions in developing the NRLW. People, including me, frequently make the category error of confusing growing pains with overarching structural issues. While some of the clubs used to whinge about the cost of the women’s program, there have been issues with scheduling (especially around covid), introducing multi-year contracts while expanding has had predictable results for competitive balance and the NRL forgot to organise the 2021 season, by and large, the NRL have pulled the right rein at the right time to get to this point.
If you needed any proof of that, look at the AFL’s inability to land the AFLW season in a place that makes anyone happy. It’s been pre-season, it’s been post-season and still, the NRLW obliterates them in TV ratings. Aggregate (despite the AFLW having more teams!), average or grand finals, whichever way you slice it, the NRLW is miles ahead. This is not just my rugby league parochialism when I say that I believe the NRLW is one of the top women’s professional sports leagues in the world, outside of soccer.
One of the NRL’s strategic decisions was to not extract any payment from the broadcasters in exchange for free production and air time. It’s been one of the keys to getting the league off the ground. It is also hard for the women to demonstrate their commercial value when their games are bundled in with the men’s and assigned a notional price of zero because that’s what everyone expects. But when the NRLW is a prerequisite to support four 1-million-viewer games across Origin and the grand final, then the dollars start to come into focus.
My contention has been that the ratings on the women’s game are somewhere in the ballpark of a quarter of the men’s. In theory, if the women could produce as much content as the men, then that inventory would be worth about a quarter of men’s. If the new broadcast deal is going to support a men’s salary cap of $16 million or more, then you can do the math.
An increased cap would help address the concentration of talent on the Roosters’ and Broncos’ rosters. Two of the longest standing franchises and the two clubs you have to go to win the title, have managed to hoard most of the NRLW’s talent. If no club can differentiate on salary for more than two or three players, then the best talents are going to naturally gravitate to where they can get success.
The agreement gradually increased female players' minimum wage from $30,000 to $50,600 per season, taking a team's total salary to more than $1.5 million by 2027.
A squad of 24 players, making the minimum would cost $1.21 million in salary. If the cap is $1.5 million, then clubs have less than $300,000 to cover the higher salaries of their top talent. If underperforming clubs can’t offer noticeably more money than the Broncos and Roosters, how can they expect to attract anyone that might turn the franchise around?
By contrast, the minimum men’s minimum is $130,000, so 30 players on minimum salary is $3.9 million. On a cap of $12 million, 67.5% of the cap is headroom that can be used to buy talent. The women’s headroom is 20%. If the NRLW’s minimum salary was $60,0001, then the cap would need to be over $4 million to provide similar headroom, and a similar opportunity for the labour market to allow clubs to balance their rosters.
My other contention is that the women’s game has picked all of the low hanging fruit and now the real work begins. The easiest part of the audience to build is locked in and may not grow as fast as it has over the last decade. The player pipeline is building and can seemingly accommodate a 12 team league, albeit while showing similar strain to the men’s talent pool.
If the league cannot sustain more teams, and it will be at least a few years before that’s the case, then to keep growing, as Penitani-Grey suggests, the league will need to play more games. Going from an 11 game schedule to 14, 18 and 22 is not the work of five minutes but it is a reasonable goal over the medium term. The next leg-up in growth will come when the NRLW season starts a few weeks before Origin and the quality of both improves markedly.
Finding free air for the women’s game is not going to happen. The 2021* season was nearly five years ago and covid and wild weather then make for an anecdote rather than data. Far more people watch the NRLW now than did then. The ratings and attendances bear this out.
The men’s NRL season runs from February to November, once we include internationals, there simply isn’t room on the calendar for a women’s season without overlap or clashing with a tentpole of the NRLM season. With the new broadcast deal, you are going to hear more and more about NRL because the broadcasters need to generate as much interest as possible to get a return on their investment. If that means making Pete Badel do more front facing short form videos and having Dean Ritchie write even more ridiculous columns to be spliced by aggregators on Twitter, they’re going to do that. No one said it was going to be good but there isn’t going to be much time or oxygen left.
If the NRL wants a standalone women’s grand final, and perhaps once the supporting infrastructure under the NRL has had a revamp this will be possible, then Friday night before the men’s grand final is a yawning chasm in the sporting calendar waiting for a marquee event to fill it. This would still only take a million-viewer event and turn it into 1.5 million: good but not transformative.
The complaints that there is too much footy to watch on a weekend will fall on deaf ears. The overwhelming majority of the audience does not watch even close to all eight games and fewer still will extend themselves to ten. The point is to drown out everything else and make following rugby league a full-time hobby, even if that means doing little more than watching a few games and scrolling social media. If that seems dystopian, sorry, I didn’t invent this future. I just live here.
The NRLW’s audience rests on a tripod of three groups:
People who enjoy rugby league in general
People who support the specific teams playing
People who want to watch women’s sport
The people in the first group will make do with a splitscreen arrangement. The NRLM cannot satisfy the latter group and even if it is the smallest, it has the most potential. If the NRL can budge the second group, by far the largest, from watching one game a week and change, to two games a week, then that will be a huge gain.
The revolution continues
One of the benefits of having total editorial control as an owner-operator of a small rugby league newsletter is that you can offer a focus that other media, needing to attract a large, mainstream audience, cannot.
Irrespective of how many games there are in a weekend, The Maroon Observer promises to prioritise watching the worst Queensland NRLW team before watching the best non-Queensland NRLM team.
Whether you consider that a feature or a bug, is up to you but that’s how it’s going to be.
Around the grounds
Broncos 22 defeated Sharks 16 (W). Whether it was the weather or the misogynistic Sharks fan base abandoning their club, this game had less of a vibe than your average statewide curtain raiser. This led to a game which was close but felt like it had all the stakes of a 50 point blow out. Watch the Sharks amble to the scrum with a minute to go and burn 30 seconds in the process. Cronulla were punchy, and got into the contest on a surplus of possession early in the second half, but are not in the same weight class as Brisbane.
Tigers 32 defeated Cowboys 18 (W). The Cowboys’ middle is water. We expected the halves to be ineffective, and they are, but the forwards (bar maybe Weale) are doing nothing with or without the ball. It doesn’t take a lot of guile to get at the Cowboys. Throw in some errors and silly penalties and you have an ass kicking. The score closed late in the game but the result was never in doubt.
Sharks 66 defeated Dolphins 0. Probably not the main takeaway, which is that the Dolphins are utterly stuffed if their stars don’t return and align very quickly, but an observation: the Broncos have been in the NRL a lot longer without giving up 66 points.
Titans 36 defeated Bulldogs 10 (W). If you looked up the definition of rugby league class, this game would be pictured adjacent. The Bulldogs were there and did some stuff but couldn’t threaten the Jaime Chapman show. The Titans took care of business and never looked stressed doing so.
Tigers 32 defeated Magpies 24 (W). For a near top-of-the-table clash, this didn’t disappoint. The game ebbed and flowed, first in the Tigers’ favour, then back to the Magpies and finally back to the Tigers. A surprising number of NRLW-affiliated players, including both Titans and Broncos signees on the Souths Logan side of the ball. I liked what we saw out of the Tigers’ playmakers, Montgomery (enthusiasm), Piliae-Rasabale (kicking) and Desic (promise).
Tigers 30 defeated Magpies 16 (M). Most of the chat around this game was the shuffling to accommodate Billy Walters’ limited minutes at dummy half as he prepares to return to the NRL. He ended up playing the first half after Milford began to struggle. Floyd Aubrey put on some phenomenal footwork for a try but that was as good as it got for the Magpies. A series of tries against the run of play around the break for the Tigers put the result out of reach and even Easts can keep Souths Logan in disarray under control.
Cowboys 19 defeated Seagles 18. We don't do Fraud Watch because otherwise three quarters of the league would be listed and the only way off the list would be elimination from finals contention. That said, Manly are clearly fraudulent. North Queensland do not have pretensions of being better than league average, albeit it is a very tenacious kind of mediocrity (see also: Rosoters win, Panthers win), but Manly could not put them away. Can't say I've watched much Fozball but both of Braidon Burns’ tries are screaming neon indicators of disaster ahead. Redeveloped Brookvale still looks like a dump compared to the big boy stadiums.
Storm 22 defeated Titans 18. Let’s hear from the fans:
That’s not to say that the errors from the Titans weren’t being matched by the Storm’s own. The final tally for both teams: Storm 13, Titans 16. Suffice to say this match didn’t reach very high standards.
Intermission
This was great too, just too long for a gif.
Sunshine State-wide
Kate Jones wants Ben Ikin’s job:
It is understood the Queensland Rugby League has finalised a shortlist of four candidates with [current ARLC commissioner, Kate] Jones, former Cowboys CEO Jeff Reibel and Brock Schaefer, the NRL’s head of performance, pathways and strategy, among the leading targets.
The QRL will begin formal interviews from Monday [13 July].
I don’t have insight to offer as to who would serve rugby league’s interests in this state - it’s more of a wait and see what’s real and what’s rumour-mongering - but I note the proximity of Jones and Schaefer to PVL, along with the Cowboys’ past insistence on trashing their own performance to get their own way under Reibel, and wonder. Let’s reserve judgement for the moment.
Otherwise,
Jones has tentacles in Queensland’s corridors of power
Read your work out loud before you submit it, guys. She is not a squid. I assume.
Expansion chat will never die
Let's expand socialist competition widely for the increase of grain production:
This masthead can reveal the NRL’s 20th licence has been valued at $20 million a year as part of the record $5.3 billion TV rights deal brokered by V’landys and departing NRL CEO Andrew Abdo.
It can also be revealed that the NRL’s 20th team will be based in New Zealand if one of three proposed Kiwi bids can table robust business plans that satisfy the ARLC’s international expansion desires.
The ARL Commission’s preference is to expand to New Zealand - not Queensland - to drive the global growth strategic plan that will also see the NRL look to overseas markets such as Japan and Singapore to stage premiership games.
So many revelations! $20 million per year is the new $15 million per year Kayo tipped in for the Dolphins. It may just cover the club grant, maybe depending on what the cap is, making the prospect of NZ2 at worst revenue neutral for the ARLC.
Peter Beattie was quoted:
“This is the best rugby league has ever been and we’ll keep growing.
“The Dolphins (who joined the league in 2023 as the 17th team) wouldn’t be here without Peter V’landys.
“He understood the importance of expanding into Queensland and Peter and the Commission understand the importance of the Pacific.
“New Zealand is no-brainer (for another NRL team), but we haven’t ruled out Queensland, so it all depends on the business plans that are put forward.”
What a weird thing to say for a former ARLC chairman. You could have done this, Peter, so why didn’t you?
Meanwhile, we officially bid farewell to Andrew Abdo:
BR: Can you see a team one day in Japan, for example?
AA: I can and I can see a competition that has real relevance. The FIFA World Cup is happening at the moment. The Olympics and the FIFA Soccer World Cup are probably the best example of truly globalised sports. It’s going to take decades to get rugby league there, but we’re on the march. There’s a plan in place and the foundations have been laid for us getting there. It’s going to take generations, but we’re on the march. That’s exciting because the underlying fundamentals are good. The game is incredibly engaging and fun to play. There’s different formats of it. I think that rugby league will become one of those games that becomes really globalised.
Sickos dot jpg. Let’s fulfill the party directives!
Upcoming slate
Panthers vs Broncos, NRLM, Thursday 8pm, Commbank
Ahahahahahahahahahahahaha…hahahahahahaha…haaaahhhh.
What’s the point?
Still haven’t won a game since an alleged war criminal was in the sheds.
Warriors vs Cowboys, NRLW, Saturday 3.15pm, Mt Smart
The Warriors’ hype train hit a bump, to say the least, with an upset loss to the Raiders in a dispirited display. The Cowboys are looking lost. Whether this will be a good game or not is unclear but it is probably the most informative of the slate as to the future paths this NRLW season will take.
Dolphins vs Cowboys, NRLM, Sunday 4pm, Suncorp
Well, well, wellity, well. The result of the last week’s contests have put a massively different spin on the outcome of this. Whereas two weeks ago, we would have considered a Dolphins walkover likely, it is now not so clear cut. We should get some answers as to whether the Dolphins operating at near full strength can refind their mid-season form or if that was an illusory purple patch concealing an otherwise pedestrian team.
The Maroon Observer is 250 posts old
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Nickelware
Read this
The Sportress - Six, again: Narratives and Life
What You Get Is What You See - The tip of the pyramid: The NRL's TV deal should terrify rugby union
James Smith - The most controversial trophy in rugby league
Aaron Timms - World Cupcophony
Notes
From what I can tell, the pundit class spent the post-Origin period pillorying Brent Read for saying Laurie Daley sucks. Never mind that every Blues fan in the country thought that to the point that a bunch of former captains had to write a letter telling everyone to calm down. Never mind that victory over Simple Billy doesn’t absolve anyone of their incompetencies. Never mind that there is plenty of other stuff that Brent Read does to criticise him (he’s like a weaker Badel). Still, this was their primary takeaway. Riccio: the media is what makes Origin special, etc, etc.
Storm may be getting sold off? Read and Badel limited themselves to one use of “bombshell” and it was in a caption.
Jarome Luai to depart Wests Tigers. Oh my god I can’t believe it a decision the Tigers made didn’t pan out what a shock Luai looked like such a hero and not a giant knob I’m so surprise
Wannabe Olympic MMA group tried gifting $82,000 cognac to Brisbane Games committee. “Swiss-registered FIMMA wants MMA in the Olympics and formed last December. It rivals organisations such as the UFC-aligned International Mixed Martial Arts Federation.”
U.S. House Passes Bill To Make Daylight Saving Time Permanent. Turns out I wasn’t being hyperbolic when I said daylight savings is tyranny. Turns out DST is MAGA.
London Broncos should know 2027 fate in a fortnight, says Lockyer and "They're not your players" - Broncos defiant over Chiefs signings. If the Broncos don’t get promoted, Chammas wants the PNG boys to play for the Hunters in 2027. The players have contracts with London and not really sure QCup will be sufficient preparation for the NRL but sure.
An update from Ryan and Kaue. You may recall that the Keighley Cougars’ owners took over the club, intending to make it more inclusive to the LGBT+ community. This had naturally generated death threats from small minded dipshits that follow rugby league, so the owners were about to give it away. A show of support from the fanbase has convinced them to stay on. “During an interview with ITV Calendar we were asked whether we had let hate win. That question really stayed with us because, perhaps without realising it, maybe we had. What the supporters of Keighley Cougars have shown us is that they simply weren’t prepared to let that happen. They reminded us what this club stands for. They reminded us why we started this journey in the first place. We’ve always believed Keighley Cougars should be about much more than rugby. It should be about bringing people together, creating opportunities and making our town proud. The incredible support has given us renewed energy and belief to continue building that vision.”
Ahem:
The median Australian weekly earnings is roughly equivalent to $75,000 pa.