Welcome to the Bovine Bulletin, a regular, independent newsletter about the North Queensland Cowboys.
At the risk of setting myself up for even more failure of augury where the North Queensland Cowboys are concerned, it looks like the Cowboys are much better than expected this season. They may even qualify as decent.
It is an even numbered year, so Todd Payten has the team running well and has been doing so for long enough that it no longer qualifies as Payten’s Patented Purple Patch and seems to be real.
The Cowboys are hardly a steel curtain of defence, as evidenced by the failed shootout with the Eels, but they are a team with a high floor (best in the league) and a high level of median performance (currently second best in the league, and third best over the last six rounds).
The ruleset has simplified game plans and the Cowboys can run fast and in a more or less straight line down the middle of the field and then wait for asphyxiation to take its toll on the defence. It doesn’t require a great deal of skill or creativity, which are in short supply, unless Scott Drinkwater is feeling frisky.
This is not foolproof, especially if the opposition de-friskifies Scott Drinkwater and as Origin takes its annual toll, but it is easy enough to execute and punch a ticket to the finals. After the Raiders loss, the Cowboys are still two-to-one odds of making the post-season (68%). While this may seem like a low bar to hurdle over, it is a lot higher than it was looking in February.
What has tended to separate North Queensland from the NRL’s good teams, of which there are very few this year, has been their lack of seriousness. Even this has been improving as the season has progressed - witness the Roosters win.
As it stands, the Cowboys are 8-5. This is only good enough for ninth on the ladder with the bye points factored in, and the Bovine Boys are somehow still a week away from their first bye. This will be welcome ahead of the two toughest asks on the calendar and then another bye to recuperate.
To play the schedule game, the Cowboys have 11 games left. Of these, chalk up Origin-period losses to the Panthers and Warriors, split the Dolphins series, and drop one or two against the Seagles and Roosters and you have a realistic path to 15-9 or 14-10. With a helping of luck, they might even approach 2022’s 17-7 season. Irrespective of how the Cowboys arrive in September, it will likely be carrying more wins than losses.
All teams have strengths and weaknesses in their gameday lineups. According to the advanced stats, the Cowboys’ back five is one of the most productive in the league. Of the crop of young backs that's come through in the last few years, Tom Chester was not the one I expected to make the step up to solid first grader but he has. This has the added bonus of providing some cover for Jaxon Purdue’s sophomore slump. Purdue has only posted one Z above 30 since round 7 while Chester has consistenly batted over 100.
In fact, every Cowboys platoon is above league average by Wins Above Reserve Grade, and combine for the NRL’s best total, but the eye test suggests there is room for improvement. It is far too late in the season to consider this but the gap between where they are now and a premiership is probably one more good forward. Tom Mikaele has been playing that role and long may it continue, with support from Jason Taumalolo, and Heilum Luki is coming along, but one more mean bastard could put this side over the top. Maybe there’s something to consider if Payten would like to put together back-to-back good seasons.
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