PREVIEW: 2025 Gold Coast Titans
[very long, exasperated sigh]
At some point in 2025, talking about the Gold Coast Titans will become a total waste of time. I find that prospect extremely despressing, even now when there is theoretical hope.
The Titans did win the coveted Queensland pennant against the odds, a fact that they are ready to remind you of, while running to 8-16 (8-10 if you ignore the incredibly slow start) with the third worst points difference in the league. Still, where were you when you found out the Titans beat the Warriors, 66-6? I remember my jaw almost literally hitting the floor when looking at the score on my phone and then again watching the match in full later. It is astonishing that Andrew Webster wasn’t fired on the spot.
Despite the flashes - the Broncos beltings that are becoming increasingly common, the Warriors flogging - this is the Titans. It will always be the Titans. We must resign ourselves to their fate.
Until that time comes, somewhere circa round 12 to 14, there are some frankly baffling signings to decipher. The Titans’ main issue has been a lack of playmaking. Gold Coast have had more than enough firepower at fullback, some might say too much, and superstar forwards mixing with mediocre pack fodder, but the halves and hooking position have been a mess.
The Titans’ solution to that conundrum was to sign, in order, Carter Gordon from rugby union (position: unknown, probably centre, subject to return from hospitalisation with MYSTERY INJURY) and Reagan Campbell-Gillard from Parramatta (position: prop, maybe bench). End of list. I might have been inclined to write that this was some sort of avant garde art project, rejecting society’s norms and insisting on a new paradigm, but frankly, I don’t have the energy. It’s too grim.
I have spent a bit of time talking about the Titans’ Project 2026 (not to be confused with Project 2025). At the time of writing, only six players are signed with the Titans beyond next year: the newly signed RCG, Mo Fotuaika, Klese Haas, Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, AJ Brimson and, for some reason, Chris Randall. The Broncos have eight and the Dolphins, ten. So when, never mind how, do these obvious positional deficiencies get fixed? Jayden Campbell, who is stunningly not on the lost of long term prospects, isn’t going to do it by himself.
Ben Hunt was on the market in the off-season and the Titans are a team who absolutely could have used that skillset at a number of spots. It was dead quiet from Parkwood. Who are they even targetting? Say it quietly but did they run out of cap chasing Tino and Fifita? If so, it is hard to overstate just how utterly screwed they are.
In their 2021 road map, the Titans’ stated goal was two men’s premierships by 2030. It’s 2025 and it’s not going to be this year. That does not leave a lot of time. It might have helped if the road map had more detail than the kind of wishy washy corporate wank I expect from a multi-national consultancy. If (when) this doesn’t come off, heads have to roll, and sooner would be better than later. One of the handful of details included in the road map is the importance of accountability. Act like it.
While we can attribute some of the middling results from last season to injury, Gold Coast’s prospects are about as dim as they’ve been at any point in this decade. Hasler doesn’t seem to have offered much but at least they’ve stopped giving up almost unassailable leads. The Titans still have too many fullbacks and five-eighths and a dire lack of halfbacks and hookers. They have piss poor depth and yet sit atop the most productive conveyor belts of junior talent in the country, except they lose schools to the Rabbitohs and clubs to the Broncos. Unlike Canberra, people want to live on the Gold Coast. It just can’t be this hard.
I ask a variation of these questions every year but you and I both know the answers.
Forget it, Jake. It’s Titanstown.
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Deep Dive
The traditional Deep Dive into the 202X NRL season has been split up a little this year. Each of the Q4 will get theirs embedded in the longer season preview and then I’ll cover the rest of the league in a Stats Drop.
Explainers for metrics:
More about sims/PRVRS here.
The executive summary for the Titans:
None of the team metrics tell a particularly pretty story about last season. The backline WARG and net tackle busts were the most promising, ranking the Titans eighth in the league on both counts.
To the point about playmaking, that platoon ranked third worst in the league in 2024 by WARG.
To the point about depth, the bench was worse and only the Raiders got less out of their interchange players.
David Fifita had an average Z score of 172, slightly down on his career average, in 2024 across 20 appearances. More astonishing is that he had a floor of 102, meaning that in 80% of his games, he plays at least at the level of a league average second rower. Compare those digits to Nanai’s when they come out next week.
The Titans’ current class Elo rating is the same as it was this time last year. Considering how low that is, Hasler returning a -25 Thox so far is not encouraging.
According to the PRVRS ratings and the draw, the Titans have a 13% chance of making the finals.
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Notes
NRLM signatures: Cooper Bai, Alick-Wiencke, Jai Bilish
NRLW signaures: Pelite, Brown, Jasmine Fogavini (think the Broncos missed a trick here), Georgia Grey and Lailani Montgomery, Pauline Piliae-Rasabale (good one). Don’t think the women are going to struggle quite as much as the men on the way to 2030.
Farewell to Tanah Boyd. I never thought you were much, you overstayed your welcome in the NRL and I cannot believe the Warriors gave you multiple years.
Farewell to Isaac Liu. Enjoy Leigh and their sick jerseys.
Farewell to Keenan Palasia. I still don’t think I’d recognise you walking down the street.
Foran set for Titans switch to Benji-style utility role. Sure.
I made a note “see if aj Brimson melb cup bet is anything” and it was not anything, other than extremely lame.