Welcome to the Phin Review
This is a regular, but not necessarily frequent, newsletter about the Dolphins of Redcliffe. The Phin Review will be the same format as the Pony Picayune and Bovine Bulletin as one of the few (only?) dedicated, written things about the Dolphins that isn’t occasional slop turned out by the major newspapers. Subscribers will receive a copy of The Phin every six weeks, rotating between the other club newsletters. I hope you enjoy it or, at least, find it informative.
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If nothing else than your own sake and sanity, what you don’t want to do is start the first new NRL club in 16 years and end up just like the last new NRL club. That leaves the Dolphins with a singular goal for 2026: make the finals.
Let’s pop over to The Almanac and consult the all-time NRL luck table.
In three seasons, the Dolphins have underperformed their Pythagorean expectation by a total of four wins. If they had played to anywhere near the level of talent suggested by their ability to score points, the Dolphins would have been in the running for a finals spot in 2024 and would have replaced the Roosters in the post-season of 2025. In fact, the miss in 2025 is in the top decile of biggest misses in NRL history.
It is time to right that.
As a club, the Dolphins are past the cliched honeymoon phase. Queensland has the dual defending premiers in the most populous corner and a massive northern swathe occupied by the most parochial and offline fanbase. The Dolphins find themselves squeezed in-between, on the northern suburban edge of Brisbane and, notionally at least, up through Capricornia. They can choose to be overwhelmed or they can choose to plant a flag.
It is not that a failure would pose an existential crisis. The Dolphins will return next year and the year after that and the year after that again. It does become difficult to convince fans to not just remain loyal but grow in number without some glimmer to offer them. Showing those fans you’re not the Northern Titans or the Far Northern Knights - and once applied, shaking those tags will take decades - starts with delivering on the promises of the performances of the last two years.
Putting aside consistently atrocious performances against wobbegongs like Newcastle, the Dolphins have had three problems. The first is that they always seem a forward short of rolling over the top of their opposition. Matches that are potentially close become blowouts as the Phins are unable to control the endgame. The return of Tom Flegler, and another pre-season into Tom Gilbert, should right that, provided the rotten injury luck (or, perhaps, strength and conditioning incompetence) that has afflicted the club since mid-2023 does not return.
The second is that they have been consistently underdelivered defensively. The Dolphins have never finished in the top half of the league in points conceded. I do not have solutions for this, other than they have to get better. Every try conceded by the Dolphins seems to be accompanied by confused Jamayne Isaako face or exasperated Kodi Nikorima face. Something is not clicking. Giving up 20 points a game instead of 24 dramatically alters the winning percentages.
The third is that while the Dolphins have generally had a high octane offence, which has helped conceal the defensive lapses, it took five weeks and an opposed session against the Titans to get that offence moving last year. In part, I attribute this to Katoa’s idiosyncratic tempo of play. While it fools opposition players consistently, those who can’t get into a groove played at 11:9 and are used to a more pedestrian 4:4 time, it also has a similar effect on unfamiliar teammates. Once that’s bedded down, they can all play hot ass jazz.
The Phins’ strengths are underreported. They have a very good, possibly excellent, backline. Katoa went from concerns about the pace of his development to being compared to Cam Smith in about eight weeks. Kodi Nikorima remains serviceable and has Brad Schneider as first drop. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, something of a bespoke fullback for this offence, won an Origin series at the position. Jack Bostock will return from injury and join Jamayne Isaako in scoring tries. Selwyn Cobbo comes in, looking ready to deliver some astonishing highlights in between some exasperating lowlights for six weeks, after which there will be notable absenteeism. Herbie Farnworth needs to learn to pass but otherwise, should be excellent again. Mercurial but talismanic Jake Averillo was going to Super League but hasn't? Good, I didn’t think they should be shipping him out if the alternative is Max Feagai or Tevita Naufahu (the latter may prove useful down the track). The Phins also get back Trai Fuller, probably the best backup fullback in the league.
The fowards have been a weakness. While trial try scoring Tom Flegler bolsters that, the importance of no longer relying directly on geriatric Bromwiches and effort merchants like Ray Stone and Mark Nicholls cannot be overstated. One hopes there will also be less reliance on starting Felise Kaufusi and one shudders to think about the hairstyle that will be debuted in round 1. Molo, Saifiti, Lemuelu, Finefeuiaki, Plath, Flegler and Gilbert is enough of a rotation to put the opposition on their ass. Even after losing Aublix Tawha to the Broncos and losing Oryn Keeley to the Storm next year, Morgan Knowles has an extremely tall order getting in to the team. Provided, that is, they can all stay healthy.
In a league full of half-cooked teams, the Dolphins have a good 1-17. Their coach doesn’t seem to be brain dead. They attract relatively little attention but command huge commercial potential. The Phins are used to adversity and coping with injury crises. Luck has not been on their side, so it is due to turn. The Dolphins just need to put it altogether.
If the Phins can get over the Knights, they’ll make finals.
If the Phins get over the Broncos, look out.
The Dolphins are full of potential…
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Notes
Does this mean there'll be a Titans newsletter soon? Ha, no. There'd be (way) more interest in a Chiefs newsletter and I can’t think of a snappy name for it anyway.
Arrivals: Morgan Knowles
Unclear: George Williams?
Extensions: Herbert Farnsworth (end of 27), Connelly Lemuelu (end of 27)
Departures: Oryn Keeley (terrible decision)
Injuries: JMK out until round 6, Bostock in round 10
Would love to see Phins make the finals, you are right they’ve had some horrible luck with injuries. As you noted though is that a function of strength and conditioning, there are some clubs that always seem to have pandemics of injuries every season, I often wonder whether this is related to training methods and whether previously “unlucky” clubs change their luck when changing strength and conditioning staff/methods? For now though I’m happy for the Phins to learn how to dominate the Knights, but as a Pony’s supporter first I’m happy for them to play little brother to Brisbane for many, many years yet.
As for a Chiefs news letter, if one could find enough news it could be interesting especially through the establishment phase of the club, how about “Overlord’s Chronicle”.
Titan’s newsletter I think remains a hard no for me, I think I’d need to see 5+ years of competence from that club first, and an actual supporter base that doesn’t just default back to supporting Brisbane once it’s clear, usually by round 3-4, that the Titans are just making up the numbers again.