Show Day Special
For Brisbane it is, anyway
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
Anatomy of a rugby league story
In the PVL era, most massive changes to the sport’s fabric go through a familiar trial by media:
“THIS MASTHEAD can exclusively reveal an idea NRL HQ is considering.”
“[Stakeholder] was very enthusiastic about the idea, saying ‘It’s a slam dunk.’”
“When asked about the idea, V’landys was quoted as saying, ‘We’re doing our due diligence right now. We’re looking at all the options. We’re doing good governance and that’s what that is, keeping our options open in the best interests of the game and our stakeholders.’”
“THIS MASTHEAD can reveal the idea is a DONE DEAL.”
“V’landys dropped a HUGE BOMBSHELL on the chests of the idea’s proponents, saying the idea was far from certain and there were ‘plenty of numbers that still need sorting out’ because the deal was ‘very bad for us, disrespectful even’ and that he ‘personally hated everyone associated with the idea.’”
Formal announcement of the idea to a tepid reception from the fanbase, who is by now sick of endless hyperbole, instead of being given an honest accounting.
Some ideas never make it past step one, like the idea of the NRL getting its own plane:
V’landys’ visit to Western Australia in recent days for the unveiling of the Perth Bears jersey rammed home why the NRL wants to secure a plane for long-haul personal charter flights.
The NRL will lease - not buy - a plane and plans to monetise the flights by offering seats to supporters, who will pay for the privilege of sitting beside their NRL stars.
This story is doomed to be revived every six to 12 months to fill the void created by bringing back the Bears actually happening.
The expansion options are somewhere between step two and four. NZ2 is simltaneously at steps three and five (and not quite step four):
A second New Zealand team is the front-runner, but the NRL’s hardline stance on a virtual licence fee could open the door for a fifth franchise in Queensland.
V’landys defended the NRL’s plan to withhold $20 million in annual grants to the 20th club for five years. That means a prospective franchise must fund itself to the tune of $100 million before receiving NRL grants in their sixth season.
“We’re not paying for the first five years, so whoever comes in is up for $100 million. It’s simple as that,” V’landys said.
“We currently give every club $20 million a year to operate. That (20th) club, we won’t be giving it to them.
While SEQ4 is stuck on step two:
Peter V’landys has been urged to abandon the NZ Orcas and deliver Brisbane a third NRL team before the AFL capitalises on its $1 billion northern invasion with a new Queensland club.
Jets NRL bid boss Steve Johnson believes the AFL is planning to launch a fresh expansion assault on Queensland with the introduction of a Brisbane rival for the Lions in the thriving western corridor.
The AFL will welcome a new Tasmanian expansion team from 2028 to create a 19-team competition and has made no secret of its desire to tackle rugby league heartland in Queensland.
Global round is at step four:
Now the NRL is headed for Hong Kong, Japan and England for a historic Global Round festival as rugby league turns the screws on the AFL as Australia’s pre-eminent winter code.
The NRL was hoping to implement Global Round next year.
V’landys hasn’t ruled out a 2027 launch, but that is now at long odds following months of intense negotiations to finalise the broadcast deal.
Super League investment seems to be at step five:
But V’landys says the Super League deal could hit a deadend.
That would be a potentially fatal blow for an ailing English game which is drowning in debt. Super League giants St Helens lost $6.5m alone last year.
“Look, we’re trying to make the figures work at the moment, but unless the figures work, we won’t do it,” he said.
“We’re having trouble making the figures work, that’s the truth of it.
“I don’t know what will happen. I find it very tough (to proceed with a purchase).
“We need to talk further with Super League. We haven’t put a proposal into them yet.
I am not holding my breath that this will not just turn out to be The Alliance - a pointless PR exercise from three college conferences in 2021 that ultimately ended up with one member of the tripartite being ripped apart by the others - but for rugby league.
Does any of this matter? Who can tell anymore?
Global round will happen in some shape or form but I don’t find the details all that interesting. It is not that hard to believe the NRL comes out ahead commercially on Vegas and sees similar opportunities to bilk governments and fans out of money by bringing the circus elsewhere, with fan-tourists in tow. This is a part of the revenue model of many professional sports around the world. I don’t have to go to these games and I won’t be, so it makes very little difference to me where the games are shot from. If you need the Raiders or Sharks to go to Tokyo to experience Japanese culture, you do you.
NZ2 was a locked-in slam dunk to prevent $100 million in broadcast value from evaporating but also won’t be getting any central funding for five years in a “virtual licence fee”. I assume this is the part where the NRL invests in the Super League but adopts their financial culture for some reason. As he showed when the Bears were at step five, V’landys does not understand what a licence fee is or how they are supposed to work. Presumably this is a negotiating tactic and/or the existing clubs don’t want to share their windfall with the Orcas.
Usually, I like to track these kinds of stories because it used to tell us something about where the sport is and where it is going. These days, there’s so many of them that follow this exact arc that tracking them is a waste of time. Wake me up when any of them get announced.
That said, this is pretty dumb:
The NRL is exploring the idea of turning grand final week into a festival of football with an additional three matches, including a third-place play-off pitting the losers of the preliminary finals against each other ahead of the decider…
The concept was inspired by the recent soccer World Cup, which featured a thrilling third-place play-off between England and France. That match, won 6-4 by England, was a better spectacle than the dull final between Spain and Argentina.
Great stuff, very good understanding of sport! As if the World Cup didn’t peak here.
It piqued the interest of the NRL. The proposal was put forward by Bulldogs boss Aaron Warburton at the NRL chief executives meeting on Wednesday and is being championed by Peter V’landys.
Last year’s losing preliminary finalists were the Sharks and Panthers. It would have been interesting to see how they would have backed up for a third-place play-off given the physical and emotional toll of shattering defeats.
No it wouldn’t have, because no one gives a shit about coming third in the NRL or the World Cup or anything else that doesn’t award an actual bronze medal.
At the CEOs meeting, Warriors boss Cameron George also proposed the annual All Stars match between the Maori and Indigenous teams be shifted to grand final week. That could prove difficult as the annual Koori Knockout is scheduled over four days from October 2. The NRL grand final is on October 4. But the concept is being strongly considered from next year onwards. There is also the possibility of a representative under-21 match between NSW and Queensland on the Thursday before the decider.
V’landys is keen to give fans and broadcasters more content in a week when on-field action is limited.
I can’t call this the worst idea the NRL has ever had, because, well, all of the above and also the set restart, but it’s patently Not Good.
It is an interesting insight into the way the NRL comes up with ideas: dipshit CEOs on a teleconference just throw it out there and PVL sees what grabs him. This is basically The Apprentice. The parallels are too on the nose.
What the fans of bad teams, especially preliminary final losers want, is the sweet release of not having to watch their crappy team anymore. Peter V’landys, who has never watched a game of rugby league in his life, thinks fans are clamouring for more, more, more.
As I have suggested for a while, if you want another major event in grand final week, then move the women’s final to Friday night. Crazy that didn’t come up!
A banner week for coverage of the Pacific’s #1 sport
I don’t have a good theory for why this all came out at once. Perhaps Peter the Great the Short granted the journalists ten minutes of his time, so he may dictate to them the future of the sport off the top of his head. These stories are always written in the worst passive voice imaginable, as if these things just emerge from the ether, instead of being specific ideas from individuals who could be identified, and therefore criticised for their dogshit conception of rugby league.
Anyway, if you prefer your rugby league news distilled into something sensible, with a patina of acerbic humour laid over the top, and delivered weekly to your inbox, The Maroon Observer is for you.
Around the grounds
The first double Broncos loss in just over two years. There could be another this weekend!
Cowboys 30 defeated Titans 8 (M). Freaky Friday approach to jersey colour schemes aside, the defensive performance on display seemed disrespectful to the very concept of Indigenous round. No more Thursday night games on the Gold Coast until they can prove they are up to it, please.
Warriors 28 defeated Panthers 12. I probably won't believe in the Warriors or count out the Panthers until they've won and been killed, respectively, but as comprehensive as this victory was (barring 10 of the last 15 minutes), I think we can all agree Dylan Edwards would have made all the difference. Let's hear from the fans:
The try celebrations gave off a certain Patrick Bateman-esque vibe that, if TWL’s DMs are any indication, will ensure [Metcalf] remains a polarising figure…
Roosters 20 defeated Bulldogs 18 (M). If the last game was the 2025 NFC Championship (Seahawsk 31 d Rams 27), then this was the 2025 AFC Championship (Patriots 10 d Broncos 7). The Seahawks were up 29-7 until very late in the Super Bowl.
Bulldogs 28 defeated Cowboys 26 (W). Almost but not quite enough. The Cowboys are starting to come together. It's not going to be enough to change the direction of their season but there's a bit of resilience there. North Queensland also don't seem to be very fit. Essay Banu’s try assist for the last try was super clever.
Titans 28 defeated Sharks 10 (W). While everyone hand wrings about the NRLW, no one is asking the obvious: what's up with Cronulla this year? The same faces that have been good in the past but they can't seem to put it together this year. My hypothesis is that this speaks to a huge leap forward in the NRLW: it’s not enough to just have good players, you have to put together a good team. Some homework there for Tony Herman, perhaps. The Titans took their time and got there in the end. Jaime Chapman in space is about as fine a blend of grace and violence as this sport offers.
Dolphins 42 defeated Broncos 30. The midwit Broncos fan is extremely upset by Brisbane coughing up a 24 point lead, the equal fourth worst comeback in the history of the NRL (see Stats Pop). The low IQ and high IQ footy fan enjoyed the points. The former because they are easily entertained and the latter knew the Broncos were never defending that lead and this was always going to be the outcome after the 22nd minute. More:
Raiders 28 defeated Broncos 4 (W). “Waaaaah, there's not enough parity in the NRLW. Waaaaah, Brisbane get all the good players. Waaaaah, I want a points cap that doesn’t work. Waaahh, waah,” lament those who clearly do not know ball. Turns out all it took to end the Broncos winning streak was some rain, Ali Brigginshaw being suspended for a tackle that wouldn’t have been out of place in the WWE, Jada Ferguson being concussed by Grace Kemp's knees, and a bit of bloody application. The rest of the league could take a lesson here. Easy to see Brisbane losing the next one, maybe two, and then where will the cry babies be? Let’s hear from the fans:
Underwriting all of this was the running battle between Julia Robinson and Izzy Waterman. Frequently they battled one on one, Waterman fending Robinson off during one run, Robinson bringing her down in another. While it ended prematurely with Robinson going off injured it was a fascinating contest between the rangy Raider and the boisterous Bronco.
Intermission
Christopher Woodbridge. You’re hearing it more and more.
Normally, we associate Nazi fans with the Dragons!
If anyone needed reminding, Nazis are bad. We fought a whole war about it.
Upcoming slate
Broncos vs Roosters, NRLW, Saturday 5.15pm, Suncorp
Given last weekend’s performance, the Broncos will be lucky if the NRL doesn’t retroactively award the 2025 premiership to the Roosters after they effortlessly clean up Brisbane, probably by 60. Some disgusting pervert ref is getting a hard-on at the thought of overturning that Mele Hufanga try nearly a year later. All Brisbane can do is put ‘em up and hope this doesn’t lead directly to the Roosters’ coronation as our forever lords and masters, causing the demise of the NRLW.
Jets vs Magpies, QDub, Sunday 12.05pm, Goodna
I will cop to taking my eye off the QDub this year. Souths Logan are 4-4, with losses to the three top teams and Mackay, sitting on the bubble of the finals places. The Jets’ claim to fame is that they eked out a draw with Burleigh on the way to 5-2-1. With only a few weeks of the regular season left, there’s still plenty at stake here, even if the winner is getting a ticket to be turned into paste by Norths in the semis.
Wynnum vs Falcons, QCup, Sunday 3pm, Kougari
First versus seventh doesn’t sound that appealing until you consider the slate of games being served up by so-called first grade. Layer on that a struggling Falcons team, 3-3 over their last six but who still lead the minor premiership race by only three points, coming up against a resurgent Seagulls, who have put up 50+ in three of their last four games, and are hugely incentivised to keep winning to survive the finals cut, and you’ve got something worth watching while three NRLM teams perfunctorily complete their 2026 contractual obligations.
This is pretty typical of this newsletter
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Stats pop
Are big comebacks becoming more common? Once upon a time, a 20 point lead was 95% of the way to victory. That feels a lot less certain these days.
Yes. Which is interesting, although I am not sure if the apparent increase is an artefact of the record collecting by (presumably) one industrious Wikipedia editor or the total history of this stat. We can’t blame all of this on Peter V’landys, or Justin Holbrook for that matter, but like the highest losing score record, weirder things will happen as the sample size increases. More reading:
Read this
Eye Test - The most and least penalised teams in the NRL (and who is awarding them) (“Hopefully you’ve managed to take something out of this that will suit whatever agenda you want to use it for.” lol)
Campo - After years of faith, rugby league in WA is ready for its close-up ahead of Perth Bears arrival
Rugby League Writers - Dragons Adjust On The Run, Cowboys In Defence & A Set After Points
The Sportress - Six, Again: Bad Decisions
Storm Machine - Game 762 – S29E23 Review
One Percenters - A League of One’s Own (WARNING: AFLW content but useful as a mark of comparison for the NRLW)
Notes
‘Doesn’t make sense’: NRL graph detail blows minds as James Maloney calls for major change. Credit to Eye Test for getting a shoutout on news dot com dot au and the author for attempting to explain expected points to a news dot com dot au audience. Not clear on what James Maloney is talking about or how its relevant but whatever.
The Perth Bears jersey looks fine. At least we won’t have to listen to people complain about it over the offseason before they see it in real. The Bears also got some concessions, admittedly too little (PVL: “They will be given a 20 per cent dispensation for any player above a million dollars. If the player is worth $1.5 million, they can pay another 20 per cent from a sponsor and that won’t be counted in the salary cap” - so a TPA exemption?) and too late (the Bears roster is almost full for 2027, as you would expect in August 2026).
The Chiefs signed Brian To’o. This is going to be very funny and, unfortunately, burnish the legacies of both Clearys. It may prove enough push Nathan into unanimous first ballot Immortality.
Meet three breakout Queensland Cup wingers battling for a lucrative NRL contract. That’s Philitonga at Pride, Dotoi at Blackhawks and Ngutlik at Cutters. Close readers would have noticed these names raised over the last two years, including in the most recent Bovine Bulletin or in the Guy 100. Philitonga is Guy #2, Ngutlik is Guy #16 and Dotoi is looking at back-to-back Guy #1s.
Broncos Secure Origin Fullback Mino-Sinapati on Two-Year Deal. Feels like an odd signing given how the backline has been (mostly successfully) reshaped this season but if no one can offer much better than the Broncos, then that’s where she’s going to end up. Raise the cap already.
Alcohol and gambling advertising ‘deeply embedded’ in NRL and AFL, report shows. Funnily enough, I thought about doing something similar last year but just didn’t think it was that interesting. My pet peeve at the moment, which will continue to go unregulated by a federal government unconcerned about doing anything meaningful, is putting on a replay on Kayo and the first thing in the stream is an ad for a bookmaker. It is presented as if you come in mid-ad break but, guys, come the fuck on.
Also, shut the fuck up. Putting aside the harm caused by gambling, gambling advertising is uniformly terrible. Just the worst. Huge L for society.
The only thing stupider is the media cop story. I'm refusing to engage with it. If it comes to pass, it will help provide plenty of fodder for this newsletter on the genre of ‘look at these cowards.’
Similarly, I don't have the energy for 2028 grand final venue speculation. Just do whatever, man.
Cowboys’ FNQ connection grows stronger with new performance centre and leagues club (brief update on the Cairns adventure) while the Cowboys seem to also be setting up a club in… Logan?
Gold Coast light rail stage 3 opens but public transport pain is not over
Typhoon Dolphin: more than a million people evacuated in China as record rainfall dumped on Shanghai. I thought Typhoon Dolphin was what they called Valynce Te Whare.
Geelong faces a ‘please explain’ over Jake Kolodjashnij concussion contract. It’s worse than you think!
Octopus Energy urges millions of households to use less electricity during solar eclipse. Now, while this is a funny headline, the salient point is “The heatwaves have forced nuclear and coal plants to lower their output or shut down entirely across Europe because of reduced river water levels needed for cooling.” Anyone who tells you nuclear is a solution for climate change, or talks about baseload, is at best, horribly out of date and at worst, a moron.
For fans of the teams in the bottom half of the league, if you need some time filling recommendations, here’s what I’m 📖 Reading: The Rentier Black Hole / 📺 Watching: The Gentlemen (season 1)
Nickelware
The Broncos and Cowboys are done for the year. If the Titans can roll the Dolphins in the last round and the Dolphins and Cowboys end up playing in week 1, do we then award the pennant on the basis of the play-off game?
This has happened before. In 2014, the Broncos and Cowboys were both 2-2 and North Queensland prevailed in week 1 of the finals. The Cows also had a superior points difference, so the question was moot. A similar thing happened in 2016 but with a week 2 victory for the Cowboys (after the Broncos beat the Titans in week 1) but again, NQ were ahead on points difference.
There is not a great deal of time left to stop the Roosters from winning the Combined Minor Premiership for the second time, continuing a pattern of alternating with the Broncos in even and odd numbered years respectively.
The Bears have finally managed to track down Wynnum and draw level, with the senior women’s team doing a lot of the heavy lifting in closing the gap. Burleigh have won the first two Pyramid Premierships presented by [your company here - email me for sponsorship opportunities] and look set to win a third, while going back-to-back on the Seniors shield.