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All the finals scenarios
With a Roosters win, the Broncos defeating the Dolphins and a Manly loss, the NRLM finals picture came into sharp focus over the weekend. Barring some catastrophic disaster, there are now nine teams competing for eight spots. The Dolphins trail with 10 wins, one win adrift of their nearest rivals, the Roosters, who have 11. The price of admission in 2025 looks likely to land on 13.
The Roosters can beat the Eels and the Rabbitohs but have to face down the Storm. The Dolphins can beat Manly and Gold Coast but, if Melbourne do beat City, then that would set up a win-and-in game at Redcliffe against the Raiders. If results go as expected and the Dolphins don’t roll over earlier, whether the probable minor premiers rest players in the last week will then have a huge bearing on whether this season is a success or failure for the Red Fish. This is commonly known as not controlling your own destiny.
In the women’s competition, the Roosters and Broncos have all but sown up finals places with four weeks left to go. The Tigers and Raiders both secured their first wins of the season, which should hopefully retire this year’s round of hand wringing about the competitiveness of the NRLW, but could only mathematically go as high as 5-6, which is not going to be enough. It seems likely that the Knights, Cowboys and Sharks can all add at least one, if not two, wins to their tallies to wrap up five of the six spots.
That leaves the door open for the Eels and the Titans for the last finals place. Parramatta face the Roosters this week to complete the hard part of the schedule, and then get potentially decisive encounters with the Titans and Bulldogs and an easy two points (trap game?) to put away the Tigers. Gold Coast have an easier time of it - Dragons, Eels, Knights and Raiders - and if they can’t turn that into at least three wins, then they don’t deserve to play finals anyway. I have little faith that the Warriors can deliver on whatever promise they were assigned pre-season (they just lost to the Raiders) and the Dragons (they just lost to the Tigers) and Bulldogs are a bit too far off the pace to expect them to realistically close the gap.
The Queensland Cup only has two weeks left to run. Tweed, Mackay, Central, Western and Northern are all done for the year and the Pride will be wondering what the hell happened to finish second last. Norths, Townsville, Wynnum, Burleigh and Sunshine Coast have all done enough to make the finals, each with 11 or more wins. That leaves Ipswich, PNG, Redcliffe (!), Easts and Souths Logan chasing three berths.
The Magpies have a bye this weekend, so can only rise to nine wins and for that to translate into a finals place would require both the Tigers and Dolphins to lose both of their remaining games. Easts play the Clydesdales and Redcliffe play the Cutters, so the odds of both of those games going the Mags’ way is practically nil. Eighth place then comes down to whether you think the Tigers can beat Wynnum and Redcliffe lose to the Blackhawks, which is not a hugely controversial scenario. The Hunters and Jets could also stuff up their last two games and leave a slot but both have fixtures against already eliminated teams.
Finally, the women’s premiership has three weeks remaining. I would be astonished if the grand final is not the Tigers versus the Magpies but we have to play the games anyway. Burleigh have five wins and probably only need one more from the Cutters, Wynnum and Falcons. That leaves five teams on four wins going into three places with the Devils, Clydesdales, Jets, Falcons and Pride in the mix. The Pride and Devils would expect to get in but it feels very much like it will come down to points difference, especially for sixth place.
No one cares about the NSW Cup.
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Around the grounds
Storm 22 defeated Panthers 18. The Panthers really are a Chris Froome-ass team but they got theirs in the funniest finish to a rugby league game I’ve seen in a while. Games like this (also Bulldogs at Cowboys, but for different reasons) are how you tell the broadcasters are still piping in fake crowd noise. That and people arguing about the Leota penalty and not admiring the size of the plate of shit the Panthers’ just ate, tells you all you need to know about the average NRL fan.
Roosters 32 defeated Bulldogs 12 (M). A typically gutless performance from the Bulldogs, who are setting themselves up to yield their almost certain top four finish to the Panthers. The Roosters feel like they’ll steal the Dolphins’ place in the finals and hit a brick wall in week one. Sam Walker’s beard is overcompensation for his never completing puberty. People keep trying to talk up Lil Spenny Lenny but he never delivers. I still couldn’t tell you who Lachlan Galvin is on the field.
Tigers 30 defeated Devils 16 (W). If the NRL is going to serve up a Friday slate of Dragons/Roosters/Bulldogs, then the QRL would be well advised to take advantage of that by scheduling more games on Friday prime time. Naturally, I forgot this was on until shortly after full time but I started watching at half time of the previous game and then finished it off when it was clear the Roosters were going to win the game.
Easts started the game strongly, had all the ball, scored repeatedly and led by 20 points late into the first half. The Tigers played with flawless ease, being handed field position and moving the ball at will. Norths were forced to tackle themselves into a hole. While the Devils righted the ship through the middle third of the game, they never got close enough to threaten before conceding more points. Tianah Teo is not related to Ben (as far as I could tell) but is ex-AFLW. The easiest call in the world is that we’ll be seeing more of this Tigers team in the NRLW in the near future.
Sharks 12 defeated Titans 8 (W). Most of the 70 minutes was an arm wrestle and if this is the standard of the NRLW moving forward, then we’re in good hands. This still felt strange but perhaps that is because we don’t often see two well matched teams exchanging blows for such long periods in the Dub? Chantay Kiria-Ratu might be underrated and I think the Titans will really regret letting her go and not Fuimaono. Not that it particularly mattered to the final result but the final phase of play where Georgia Hale is pinged for “pressure on kicker” while Penitani’s high shot on Lailani Montgomery goes completely unpunished because it technically happened out of play is so, so stupid.
Sharks 54 defeated Titans 22 (M).
Broncos 38 defeated Eels 4 (W). It took the Broncos quite a lot longer than you’d expect based purely on the score to really break the Eels down and start putting on points. Julia Robinson was put into a seam in the Eels’ goal line defence and exploded it and the game. After that, the Eels got absolutely steamrolled. There was too little ball and too few opportunities in good field position with it for Parramatta to put up the appearance of relevance to the outcome of the game.
Broncos 38 defeated Dolphins 28. I am normally Dolphins-sympathetic but lol, get wrecked. Kotoni owns you. It’s 5-1 now. You’re a lot closer to the Titans than anyone should be.
Hunters 52 defeated Magpies 32. Sometimes, the guys just don’t get off the plane in Port Moresby. Souths showed no interest in gaining yards, preventing PNG from having field position and looked largely like a side that has had enough of 2025. The Magpies scored three tries in the last ten minutes to make this well not respectable but feel less shame.
Cowboys 38 defeated Knights 4 (M).
Cowboys 22 defeated Bulldogs 6 (W). Hard to say if the Cowboys made this look easier than it was or if the margin should have been wider due to several blown tries on the left side getting swept up by poor decision making (although I admire the instinct to back yourself down the sideline) and Andie Robinson’s cover tackles. North Queensland were very much never in danger and seem to be going from strength to strength. Alisha Foord looked like she was in hour four of a marathon jogging back onside as the Bulldogs scored - conditions might have been a bit tough out there.
Ranking the stupidest rule changes in the PVL era
Remember Bluesky? We’re still over there.
That sounds like a challenge. I didn’t include every single rule variation and interpretation, or any of the CRACKDOWNS, but these are the most prominent during PVL’s tenure as chairman.
9. Two point field goals (2021)
I still don’t particularly care for this rule change, probably because the Broncos always seem to be on the wrong end of it, but other people seem to like it.
8. Over officiating scrums to eliminate teams breaking early (2021)
The nanny state has gone mad here. Rather than allowing smart teams to trap the ball in the scrum and take advantage of the stupidity of their opposition, the REFEREES had to get involved. Oh what? The other team can’t tell when the ball comes out without mummy referee getting involved? Pathetic.
7. Play the balls in lieu of scrums (2021)
In the same article that claims “The ARL Commission determined scrums as part of the game’s DNA”, there’s a bunch of changes to the rules to eliminate scrums as a means of restarting play. Brilliant. That said, I don’t think I’d know what was a play the ball or what was a scrum beforehand and probably don’t really know now.
6. Bunker auto review of scoring plays (2021)
This has had an insidious effect on refereeing standards, where total crap is sent up as a try because the referee hasn’t got the balls to apply basic physics and then we have to wait for the Bunker to fuck up the decision.
5. Dropping the second referee (2020)
This has had a blatant impact on refereeing standards, but because morons like Buzz and Ritchie have shut up about refereeing crises, so the average gas leak NRL fan thinks refereeing is fine now. And to what? Save a few bucks?
4. Drop outs failing to go ten metres are no longer penalised (2024)
I recall reading something about the NRL making this change because they wanted more aerial contests. Why? We have a code of football for that. We call it soccer. While this supposedly didn’t increase the number of short dropouts - that was already happening for some reason - it does prevent teams from building pressure in the old fashioned way that rugby league used to be ground out.
3. Limiting the set restart area (2022)
But why would you need to do this for such a self-evidently good idea? Huh, Peter? Huh?!
2. Set restart for ruck infringement (2020)
The original bad idea that spawned a lot of hits for the handful of amateurs willing to call out Peter V’Landys as a power-mad dictator and not the shrewd operator we’d been promised by the traditional media. That anyone involved in this or who supported it in the media got to keep their jobs is astonishing.
1. Set restart for inside 10 metres (2021)
The rule change that blew up the 2021 season. This was like pouring petrol on a fire. What a complete waste of time. The psychological tortue of half the country being locked down did a lot of heavy lifting to cover this up.
There were no rule changes proposed for 2023 or 2025, which the NRL felt the need to reassure people in writing instead of it being the default position of the governing body.
Good recent rule changes - choosing where to pack the scrum, captain’s challenge - were pioneered under our indecisive friend, Todd Greenberg. “Ah but your headline said there were ten stupid rule changes”. Well, actually, it’s 11. Some of the stupidest changes - the ban on tackling aerial players (which would rank around 2 or 3) and the 20/4 (probably around 6 or 7) - were also Greenberg’s handiwork, so allow me a brief apology for sticking those on Vlando but you’ll understand the error.
Here’s the other rule changes since the Bunker came in:
2016: The Bunker introduced, elimination of walls to prevent chargedowns, introduction of shot clocks
2019: Shot clock reductions, you gotta run off the field when binned
It’s shocking to look back on what happened.
Intermission
Ahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. This publication proudly advocates Queenslanders giving Cleary the St Helens treatment, even if it's for the Storm (who I don't usually mind when they're not kicking the shit out of the Broncos).
Dylan Edwards, who gave up two critical errors at the end of the game, takes off early and realises he's made a huge mistake before he's hit the 10 metre line. Hahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Oh but there's more:
Post match quotes
“Getting penalties helps you win, so it’s just the way it is at the moment. It comes down to just wanting to win the game, and those things help.”
Oh sorry, that was Nathan Cleary before, this is now:
“I thought the blocking rule was brought in so then people wouldn’t stand next to the play the ball. Essentially Harry played for it because he knew he was going to get the penalty.”
Losers.
Here’s what a real winner looks like (Billy goddamn Walters):
PNG McPNGFace
Speaking of frankly insane decisions, there’s going to be a NRL team in PNG in 2028. The board wants your help to name it:
With excitement growing for Papua New Guinea's entry into the NRL in 2028, the time has come to give the new team a name…
The announcement marked the start of a nationwide campaign encouraging all Papua New Guineans to submit their ideas for the team name at www.yourteamnamehere.co…
The competition has been organised by the PNG NRL Franchise Board, in collaboration with key partners and stakeholders, to ensure that the team’s identity reflects the pride, unity, and aspirations of the nation.
The Post Courier reported that PNG PM, James Marape, was the first to submit a suggestion:
The Prime Minister emphasised that he kept his name a secret to avoid influencing the public’s opinion, stating, “I don’t want to influence the mindset of the country.”
We can only imagine the discussions taking place in the background, resolving to ignore every other submission.
The very official looking website has some default suggestions:
Boars has its appeal. Chiefs is a bit meh/Kansas City but perfectly in line with expansion team naming conventions (Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, etc). Dunno what a Thunderhawk is or why it would be Coastal? Would that set us up for a second Highland Boars franchise later on? There’d be no love lost there.
I’m still open to the Buccaneers brand getting a look-in after the NRL failed to utilise it for a Moreton Bay team. I’d hate anything along the lines of Fuzzy Wuzzy Angels or PNG United. PNG Football Club or PNG Wantok might be ok. Think they should have a name in Tok Pisin though.
Dunshea’s optimism was reflected by former PNG Kumul and current Pacific Program Coordinator at the NRL, Mark Mom, who believes that the future of the game in Papua New Guinea is bright despite the hurdles facing the PNGRFL.
“We’re facing a lot of what I would call healthy challenges. The NRL franchise requires a lot of infrastructure to be built, especially regarding junior sport, and pathways for elite players,” Mom said.
“We need our staff here in PNG to be trained further. Currently, we don’t have the numbers or expertise when it comes to our people – and that takes time to develop. So, the human resources and the structured pathways are required to support the game here long-term.”
“The connection between the two bodies is massively important. Having the PNG Hunters competing in the Hostplus Cup allows for good synergy between QRL and the PNGRFL, and it provides a model to successfully operate and administer the sport,” explains Mom.
Hotseat
Someone get fired already.
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Notes
'Determined' Johnston-Green cleared for special return. Breaking the informal rule about not posting NSW news because this is pretty amazing stuff.
Schneider to join Dolphins for 2026. They really don’t trust Kodi do they? Or are they preparing for the inevitable (and welcome) departure of Sean O’Sullivan?
Salford Red Devils have promised to investigate allegations that the former COO (who resigned last week) had been asked to sleep with an individual from the RFL by the club's owners. What an absolute shit show. Fold the club. Then fold Super League. Then fold England. Well, at least step 1 is nearly complete: Salford v Wakefield cancelled over welfare concerns
Rugby league told £16m government funding will be stopped unless questions answered. It’s going well then.
Here in its entirety is the update of the Strategic Review, chaired by Nigel Wood, that was presented to clubs at the RFL Council meeting in July. Oh, it’s really not. This is pathetic, even by rugby league standards.
Gold Coast teen Nikau Hepi signs historic NCAA division one deal with powerhouse Auburn. “Powerhouse” is a bit strong. The Tigers were 2-6 in conference play last season and its been five years since they had a winning record in the SEC. The kid would’ve been 3 when Auburn won their last title.
Forgot to mention this in last week’s statewide split screening but QDub Cutters prop and former Eel Tafao Asaua is 189 centimetres tall. She, uh, stands out on the field.
Selling out or selling up? The battle for Santos takes a twist
Queensland chief health officer recruitment ongoing after appointment scrapped. Read on to infer how its connected to Vic Park. Good to see that after Fitzgerald and Newman that the LNP have structurally learned nothing about corruption or dealing with criticism. Very embarrassing for Labor to have lost to these clowns.
Nickelware
The Broncos win the Queensland pennant for the 26th time in the men’s competition. Provided the Dolphins beat the Titans and/or the Cowboys lose to the Broncos, Redcliffe will secure their third consecutive runner-up spot. The Broncos’ sweep and Titans’ sweptedness would be the first in both cases since 2022.
The Burleigh Bears are very likely to go back-to-back in the Pyramid Premiership. After winning last year’s with 33 wins, the Bears have already accumulated 34.5 wins with five games left to play between the Cup and the Dub.
Last year’s runners-up, the Dolphins, are 11th this year without having broken 20 wins. Last year’s total? 30. As I semi-jokingly said earlier in the year, Redcliffe are a spent force in statewide competitions. Too much focus and resources are sent to the NRL club at the expense of the rest of the program.
New nickelware! The premise of the Combined Minor Premiership (brought to you by ___[your consumer-facing company here - pay me]______) is very simple. I add the regular season wins for the NRLM and the NRLW together and sort the table accordingly. Last year’s winner was the Roosters (23 wins) and the year before, the Broncos (24 wins).