Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
The Sky Blues Are No More
NSWRL has been forced to drop the name Sky Blues for their women’s State of Origin side after threats of legal action were made by A-League’s most successful club Sydney FC, who go by the same nickname.
Ahead of Thursday night’s series opener at Suncorp Stadium, the former moniker ‘Sky Blues’ has been dropped from all official NSWRL communications as well as the team’s social media channels.
But:
However, the changes weren’t made in time to make cut off dates for new kits for this year’s series, which were submitted back in November.
The NSW game day jerseys and training kits for staff and players still have the former logo including the words ‘Sky Blues’ in the crest, which will be worn on Thursday night.
Getting bullied by the A League is one thing but not simply buying them out to shut them up is another. The “giant” Sydney FC would have accepted $15 and a sandwich for their intellectual property and probably offered a few ALW signings as a sweetner. Remember when the Blues didn’t offer equal pay for Origin? Another example of the Phillip Street not spending money on women? What’s the word for that?
The Sky Blue brand should never have been introduced in the first place and certainly not without a search on IP Australia. If you represent Queensland, you are a Maroon. If you play for North Queensland, you are a Cowboy. If you play for Souths Logan, you are a Magpie. There are no gender distinctions made because by pulling on that jersey, men and women become peers in the same endeavour.
You might be inclined to point out that the Jillaroos, Matildas, etc have separate brands. That’s because these teams originate from a time when women were not automatically considered peers of their male counterparts by virtue of being good enough to represent their country. The amount of work the pre-NRLW Jillaroos had to go through to play in World Cups and the complete lack of interest from the governing bodies as recently as two decades ago is shocking, although hardly unsurprising if you remember any time prior to 2009.
That history has value that is worth maintaining, even if the struggle dervies from combatting patriarchal norms, rather than traditional sporting adversaries, but if the Jillaroos were dreamed up today, they’d be the women’s Kangaroos. Given no one* cared about women’s sport until it was invented by the AFL in 2017 and interstate women’s football until 2018 - yes, including me - the Blues should have taken the more modern tack and avoided being embroiled in this nonsense with an association football team.
While trademark disputes are unlikely to be the basis of much trash talk, we could hardly ask for a better story of the Blues not getting Origin, again, than this as we head into the first game of women’s State of Origin.
Looking through the Maroons squad, I don’t know much about Rory Owen or Tavarna Papalii. Owen played nine games at centre for the Eels last year putting up a Z score of 99 and accumulating 0.3 WARG, which is good for a 19 year old rookie. Papalii played five-eighth for Samoa last year and was born in Wollongong, continuing a fantastic Queensland lineage of NSW-born players coming to their senses.
I am mostly relieved Emma Paki won’t be doing a baby deer on ice impression anytime she gets near the sideline, with the All-star and Cowboy Jasmine Peters coming into the side at winger. The rest of the squad is pretty much what you would have expected, although I find Tahnee Norris’ mild antipathy to Chelsea Lenarduzzi a bit strange: she’s almost always going to come up with a big play.
With no prior game time, there’s no form guide for judging players, so incumbency is going to be the main selection factor until the NRLW season finally expands to be long enough to have a few rounds before launching into the biggest match of the season. Even on a stats-based assessment, both sides are even in both average Z score and 2024 Wins Above Reserve Grade. The Blues are marginally more experienced on career WARG (28.6 vs 22.7) but I don’t think that’s going to make a substantive difference.
The Maroons’ spine is a class above the Blues’ (Abbi Church at fullback is going to be interesting) so if Queensland can avoid getting beaten up in the middle, then that will lay more than enough of a platform for Brown, Aiken and Upton to go to work. The game is not yet a claimed sell-out but I would expect a better than the 25k crowd for last year and that should be more than enough to put Queensland over the top.
Tip: Queensland 13+
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Around the grounds
Broncos 42 defeated Bulldogs 18. Stephen Crichton joins Joe Tapine in the Only Becomes a Hard Man While Down a Million Points category. At least Spencer Leniu has the grace to be a complete prick while winning. While I predicted the Bulldogs hitting a brick wall, I did not anticipate it being a mighty maroon and gold one. This is largely what mean regression looks like, albeit at an extremely accelerated pace. Connor Tracey sucks and the Bulldogs defensive prowess come from playing shit teams, which it turns out is the entire comp so that will be fun to see how that plays out. Xerri getting Blues chat and not Staggs is example number 4 billion of NSW not getting Origin. The commentators had almost as much of a nightmare of a game as the Dogs. Overall, hilarious stuff, 5/5, would recommend. More to come in the next Pony Picayune.
Devils 34 defeated Clydesdales 12. Western got hopelessly outclassed. Norths held the ball for the first 20, put on 16 points and then played with their food after the 25th minute. Too slow, not strong enough, missing some skill. A classic slow slog on the sodden turf at Bishop Park, complete with scrums taking a good minute or two to form and get the ball in play. Clydesdales got a few consolation points by continuing to try against a very languid Devils defence.
Anzac Day. Went to our local march in the morning. Dragons suck. Knights suck. The Storm “bounceback” was less searing destruction and more staid competence. Any credit the refs get for Latrell Mitchell’s completely correct sin binning is totally offset by whatever byzantine review process decided on Papenhuyzen’s binning. Melbourne running up 70 on the PNG team every Anzac Day from 2028 onwards is going to be depressing. Fox’s success at identifying a heavily qualified crowd record almost sounds like a head office directive, in contrast to their complete incompetence in dealing with Anzac Day itself. “The most inspirational day of the year.” The fuck you on about?
Jets 22 defeated Wynnum 6. Not only have Ipswich put some high quality guys together, they’re playing with an enthusiasm we haven’t seen since the peak Walker Brothers era. A lot of that seems to be down to ex-Pride and ex-Devil Julian Christian, who has come across this season at fullback. He’s doing a lot of the directing, the talking and hype man work to keep this team going. The Jets probably need one more Cory Paix-clone in the spine to put them over the top though. Wynnum played well but never got themselves into a position to threaten as consistently as Ipswich did. The Jets had 56% possession and an extra 250 metres to play with. The Seagulls were evidently getting frustrated with their inability to break through. Josh Patston put Jock Madden on his ass towards the end of the game, which was funny.
Cutters 26 defeated Tweed 22. Tweed ran out of bench players with about 20 minutes remaining in the game. At that point, they had a 12 point lead but the Cutters were able to chip away at that, eventually pulling ahead in the last ten. For a Mackay side that featured 7 or 8 Cowboys contracted players, they had a difficult time putting away a Seagulls side that play with commitment but fell short once again. In fact, it was five tries a piece with the Cutters only going ahead on goal kicking. Raydan Burns scored two tries, which might offset the tries that he conceded while Seagulls were running in open field. Lindon McGrady still has it.
Cowboys 50 defeated Titans 18. We're starting to see some cracks in the Titans. I can't recall a game where there were multiple instances of players getting pissed off with each other since that 2021 final game. I don't know if that means anything or if it was just hot in Townsville and everyone was a bit cranky. Fermor and Tino had ok games but the rest are playing like guys we won't remember. Tom Weaver might make a classic Titans first grader, which is to say he wouldn't make the cut in a 15 team league but might have a long career in a 20 team league but only at Gold Coast. When the Titans conceded during the Clifford binning, it was over. Their own bins were just salt in the wound. Rob Derby announced himself with a performance we've all been waiting for. The Cowboys' spine was very good, the forwards do a job and that was more than enough. More to come in the next Bovine Bulletin.
Raiders 40 defeated Dolphins 28. It’s very tempting to contrast the two halves and wonder where the momentum went, or how the Dolphins can look so good but only for part of the full 80, really this was just a game of possession. The Dolphins had all the ball in the first half. The Raiders had all the ball in the second. Canberra are the better team, athletically if nothing else, so they scored more points in their half and won the game. That the Dolphins scored as many points as they did with starting hooker Ray Stone is a miracle unto itself. Sean O’Sullivan certainly did not help matters. Nikorima and Katoa both look good. Tabuai-Fidow seems to have found some form. Boy, they really need some better forwards to go with the big boys.
Magpies 32 defeated Capras 12. A little surprised to see the Magpies run riot in the first half for only their second win of the season against a Capras team that I expected to see a little more out of. Then again, if Nixon Putt is starting at centre, then things aren’t going great. Israel Leota had fun on the wing, making long breaks at will, as did Anthony Milford, who seems content to walk along and rifle passes out of the ruck to the edge. Marty Taupau was even ball playing.
They're coming for him
Following on from Media Watch’s coverage of our weenie overlord’s influence on the media, Mark di Stefano ran a long column, Inside the plot to ‘get rid’ of Peter V’landys, in the AFR last week. Unfortunately, at over 10,000 words, there’s simply too much to quote extensively but undoubtedly, bits will leak into future newsletters.
“They’re coming for him” is one reading, although I thought it was pretty balanced on the whole, giving V’Landys a right of reply. Most of the column was about V’Landys’ antics in Racing NSW and had less to do with his antics at the ARLC, much of which will already be known or suspected by readers of this newsletter.
I, frankly, learned far too much about the mechanics of horse racing. Most of the opposition is built on resistance to change because it threatens the status quo of how a bunch of people in the horse racing “industry” make their money. That horse racing consistently positions itself as an industry, i.e. something that produces a useful economic output and not just animal misery, gambling addiction and onanism for the wealthy, tells you something about their own self-perception. So my main concern now is being pitched as being on the same side as Mark Latham and Alan Jones and a bunch of millionaire race horse owners. I don't care for this at all.
Rosehill probably should be sold off for housing land. That seems like a net social benefit, irrespective of what Racing NSW does to replace it and that the profits will accrue to almost certainly crooked developers. I don’t know that housing horses - not even endangered species, horses - should take priority over people. Similarly, I can believe the NRL should take over Super League while also believing Peter V'Landys is probably going to end up in jail (for his dress sense and taste in food if nothing else).
My guess is that if something more serious emerges from a Rosehill inquiry or good old fashioned whistle-blowing, then di Stefano is laying the ground work to either break that story or at least build on what he’s already written. If not, then di Stefano I guess is risking being put against the wall when PVL becomes El Dictador next decade.
Supplementary reading: How Peter V’landys built a property empire
Intermission
Semi Valemei from the opposite side of the field with a smashing try saver.
All too easy for Christian x Fitzgibbon.
I am also posting very silly videos of QCup scuffles to Instagram that are receiving upwards of several likes.
I guess?
We’re so back. DONE DEAL. It’s a fait accompli. On to Ipswich!
There’s no way that there’s another sting in the tail of this story. Once the ARLC board, voting members, RLPA, North Sydney Bears and the WA government sign-off, we’ll have the Perth Bears. It’s practically a foregone conclusion. Look at the certainty of this headline:
Cook perplexed by NRL ‘done deal’ reports but confirms new offer was made
Cook is so excited by the LOCKED IN BEARS that he’s temporarily forgotten how many home games they’ll play. The guy who owns the Perth Bears trademark was contacted by the NRL this week about using it, according to a screenshot I saw of what I guess was a Facebook story or something. It’s all happening and for real life this time.
In summary, I don’t know. I tend to not think anything is actually real until it appears on NRL dot com or one of the club websites (e.g. where’s our U21s comp?). I do know the media and NRL are doing themselves absolutely no favours with this one and the official announcement is going to be flat as a tack because of it but they wasted all that time putting together lists of signing targets and aspirational lineups, so they may as well drop it now before someone changes their mind.
Melbourne Storm? More like Melbourne Stormfront
People playing closer attention than me noted that the Storm cancelled their Welcome to Country ahead of their Anzac Day fixture against the Rabbitohs at very short notice.
A statement from Djirri Djirri and Aunty Joy was posted on Reddit, indicating what I would call a resigned disappointment in the whole thing. The Welcome to Country had been booed at a dawn service in Melbourne - and perhaps one day we will crawl into the pathos created by Howard’s Anzac Day venerations and its inherent Conservatism, although based on our national track record, not any time soon - and it wouldn’t be a good look to put that on TV should fans at AAMI Park perpetuate that.
SBS references a statement released by chairman Matt Tripp, which is not on the club website, that claims the incident arises from their ignorance and a simple misunderstanding. I have a different inkling. From Storm director funds hate group “Advance”:
Investigations show Ralph — who has been a director of Melbourne Storm since 2021, and who co-owns 20% of the team — has given Advance at least $275,000 since the disinformation group was founded in 2018.
As previously revealed, on April 16 Advance sent a mass email, titled “Sick of hearing Welcome to Country?” — and declared the Indigenous ceremony was a “direct attack on Australian values”.
“It’s about delegitimising your place in the country, your family’s history, the sacrifice and blood, sweat and tears that went into building Australia,” wrote Advance executive director Matthew Sheahan.
Ralph is one of just four board members of the Melbourne Storm, including its chairman, Matthew Tripp.
This was apparently highlighted by Briggs during last year’s Voice referendum and so, in learning about this for the first time, that’s a big ol’ yikes from me. The Broncos are still owned by News Corp (and Ralph holds <0.1% of the Broncos’ shares) so this only moves the Storm up to, at best, second in the worst ownership standings in the NRL.
I’d be surprised if much more heat was applied to either the Storm or Ralph by the mainstream media and this will blow over pretty quickly as a result, but this is absolutely the kind of thing I can see myself returning to.
Hotseat
Paid subscribers might have already seen this chart in the most recent Stats Drop:
That blotch on the right is Newcastle’s wooden spoon prospects.
Even if a one-in-three chance to finish last is not a particularly solid number - it has an error margin and is subject to change - rounding that down to, say, a one-in-five shot is not much better and places the Knights down in the dumps with the Eels, Titans and Panthers (!).
The Knights currently have the lowest form Elo rating in the NRLM at 1379, which is two points worse than the Titans. For a team that started the season at 1513, Newcastle have gone backwards at a rate of knots in just eight games.
Scoring a little over ten points a game, by far the worst in the league, is not a recipe for long term success. Even with their relatively staunch defence, Newcastle’s Pythagorean expectation is just .206, or on track for less than five wins.
You’ll be shocked to learn this is also the least efficient offence in the competition. The Knights give up a lot of ball but aren’t terrible on the metres and actually dominate their opposition on line breaks and tackle busts. They nonetheless struggle to turn line breaks and running metres into points (as per Stats Drop metrics) and struggle to turn field position into points (as per League Eye Test).
One of the many problems the Horseymen face is that their coach is running dead last in Baxes per appearance. O’Brien has a career +1.9 and put up +2.7 last year but is currently sitting on -1.2 this year. Jason Ryles, whose initiation to the NRL has been less than successful, is on -0.9. This is a significant underperformance of what we expected given this roster.
There’s time to fix Newcastle, and some of it will happen by mean regression, but it has to happen now. A bottom four finish has almost certainly got to be the end of Adam O’Brien’s tenure at Newcastle.
Upcoming Slate
I’m not going to do the usual format for two reasons. The first is that it’s Magic Round and the men’s Q4 haven’t put together a grand slam - golden or otherwise - since the golden grand slam at Magic Round in 2023. As someone who writes a newsletter about these teams for a hobby, I want to see some dubs, dammit.
Naturally, I am expecting the Titans to fall over against the Bulldogs, although these are exactly the kind of conditions - something like a home crowd, highly touted opponent, no one expects them to do anything, sans David Fifita - for a classic Titans upset. The Cowboys will have their work cut out for them in the shape of the Warriors but like all teams this season, the Kiwis are gettable if North Queensland toughens up and plays direct. Roosters and Dolphins was supposed to become a marquee fixture of sorts, with the Artie Legacy Medal up for grabs, but its been parked in Magic Round for some reason. Who will join the illustrious list of Felise Kaufusi, Billy Smith and Sam Walker? The Broncos should clean up the incredibly broken Panthers but you can never underestimate Brisbane’s capacity for self-sabotage and the opposition’s capacity to turn up specifically for the Broncos. Throw in the uncertainty of a counter-crackdown from the NRL and the chaos of 50,000 drunk people who are a bit too tired, hot and bored, and you have a great weekend of TV.
(I’m not going - have fun if you are)
Note the Saturday game on Nine is the early 3pm kick because of the federal election so consider this your reminder to vote, preferably not for the bad guys.
The second is that the QCup slate this week is pretty hot, so selecting one game proves difficult. The QRL have done well to clear the metropolitan area for Magic Round, at least as best as possible when half the teams are located in the greater Brisbane footprint. Even the lowest rated match between the Seagulls and Clydesdales has the potential for a hilarious, possibly career ending, upset if Western can just put a few sets together. If you are staying home, get on Qplus because at least three of those games should have commentators and the Capras should start with a nice twilight visual in Rockhampton.
(Tips 10 / 24 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Rugby League Eye Test: Newcastle are their own worst enemy and Wahs on the up
Rugby League Writers: Preseason Predictions Check, Sin Bins & Olakau'atu On The Ball
Storm Machine: Game 721 – S28E08 Review (please read to the end)
The Sportress: Six, again: Expect the unexpected
Notes
The Broncos made an announcement to the ASX that they, and all the NRL clubs, will be receiving $4 million to warmly accept the PNG team to the NRL. That’s $68 million spent on buying ARLC votes to stop our biggest trading partner from investing in our nearest neighbours. Great stuff.
Parramatta Eels did not participate in a pre-game Anzac ceremony. Do the Eels hate the troops, as well as working class people with mesothelioma?
Is it time to panic about the turf for Magic Round despite Brisbane getting loads of rain in the lead up to the last couple of Magic Rounds and it being fine? They’re way ahead of you.
Crazy how the force to the head in a binning is always moderate. It's never high or low, always moderate. Rugby league players are just so skilled!
Buzz would have had a stroke if this many binnings occurred under Greenberg. The commentators can’t wait to gloss over it and make excuses under V’Landys. Curious. I was given to understand Phillip St does not influence editorial direction.
Cowboys allow themselves to be used as a campaigning prop by both sides. Looks like an upgraded facility for the Pride and the Cowboys W team is going to Cairns either way - more on the latter here. Quite the change in attitude in two years.
Richardson backs NRL Europe. I didn't listen to the podcast but this reads like something I would've cobbled together in a footnote of this newsletter. Shouldn't there be more to this, even if solely in high level justification? One remembers the Platinum League. Oh and apparently the Roosters are going to buy Salford and rebrand them as Manchester. I'm sure Politis already has received death threats.
Farewell to Ken Maumalo. I fondly remember your panic signing with Kruise Leeming in 2023. You were a sizeable dude in Cup. Weird that you never made it to the first grade side. Good luck.
Suncorp Stadium's double delight with Australian first. Mini Magic Round?
Dolphins: Saifiti ruled out with shoulder, Marshall-King, Kaufusi and Donoghoe to return
John Devine and Brad Tallon are going to call every Devils game on Qplus
Something for the Sickos this week - the shenanigans afoot with the Melbourne Aces and the ABL… wouldn’t surprise if the endgame is something like Brett Ralph wants to be a baseball Larry Kestelman.