Ultraviolet (this is very good)
It's a quant-heavy edition
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
Temp check
It’s that time of the year where the lack of news-news forces me to write about footy. Seeing as “vibe check” sounds so old fashioned now, let’s see how the Queensland NRL teams are faring in terms of the spectrum of black body radiation. Remember that bluer is hotter!
Broncos (M) - 2700K (fading incandescent bulb). The season has been over for weeks and anyone telling you otherwise is trying to sell you a Kayo subscription. Given this is not a team that plays for pride alone and that this is the end of an era for this roster, the results in the rest of this season are entirely meaningless (outside the race for the Queensland pennant). Should give that Reece Walsh the ball more.
Broncos (W) - Ultraviolet (this is very good). The only knock on the women’s Broncos so far is that they ain’t played nobody. They crushed the Cowboys and beat the Sharks and Tigers. Things will get more real when we can gauge against the Roosters, the Knights and the Titans. Upton and Southwell are superlative together. Brisbane should be premiership favourites based on what we’ve seen so far.
Cowboys (M) - 4000K (standard office lighting). Almost the definitionally median team in the NRL. What North Queensland have going for them is that the opposition must come correct. If they do not, they risk the Cowboys being plucky and hanging around and sneaking in a win. If a top eight team comes with a modicum of respect, then the Cows lose by 20. Unclear if this is good enough to be in the finals or what it says about Todd Payten’s tenure.
Cowboys (W) - Infrared (this is very bad). With a surprising Bulldogs victory and without a substantial change in course, the Cowboys are racing the Eels for the wooden spoon.
Dolphins - 5000K (cool white). This team is going to make the finals before being overwhelmed by the occassion and being driven off the park in the first 30 minutes of their first appearance. Even if they win their first finals game, the hedonic treadmill just shifts expectations to winning the first prelim, the first grand final, etc. Then it’s all trying to break droughts after that. It’s exhausting.
Titans (M) - 3000K (warm white). Given the Titans looked like a 3-21 team for most of the season, to finish something like 6-18 or 7-17 would be an improvement, albeit one that would see the Titans get the wooden spoon in a third of NRL seasons instead of nearly 100%. As they often do at this time of year for Titans fans, thoughts turn to the future. Gold Coast are not really losing anyone next year, and gain Hiroti from the Sharks, so who knows? Stranger things have happened.
Titans (W) - 6000K (daylight). The Titans should be able to get themselves into the bottom half of the top six, at the very least, but probably won’t get a lot of credit until late in the season when everyone else notices. While this is unlikely to be Gold Coast’s year - a preliminary final loss would be a good result, another grand final appearance would be exceptional - their young roster will benefit massively from the experience and be very threatening into 2027.
For the competition as a whole, I don’t see any standouts on the men’s side. You could make a case for any of at least five teams: Panthers, Roosters, Dolphins, Warriors and Sharks. I can’t stretch that to Knights or any further down the ladder to teams that will be lucky to even make finals. After all the blowouts and sludge, finals in the National Rugby League usually deliver, so having an open race into September (and a 3-in-8 chance of a new winner) might make up for what we had to sit through in March.
We remain ever the optimists.
Now it is our turn to study statistical mechanics
There aren't too many publications that combine the physics work of Ludwig Boltzman - he of the textbook introduction - with rugby league and yet here we are, our own little ultraviolet catastrophe.
Around the grounds
What a weekend for South Queensland.
Broncos 14 defeated Panthers 12. Some outlines of the team that won the premiership on show again, now that the team is nominally full strength, even if clearly still mangled. Interesting that the Panthers, when wearing NSW blue, can defeat Queensland but the Queensland clubs have beaten the Panthers three times in the last five weeks (one of the other weeks was a bye). It’s telling that it took beating a team of war criminals to break Ben Roberts-Smith’s curse.
Warriors 42 defeated Cowboys 4 (W). The difference this week is that the Cowboys backs got an opportunity to let the team down. Even if we overlook the frequent and very basic handling errors, I don’t know what was going on on the right edge of defence. They may as well not have been there. The embarrassing thing is that the Warriors took advantage of the other side, with Goldthorp and Peters, almost as easily. It got bad and then got worse.
Titans 50 defeated Eels 12 (W). This blew out early and never looked in doubt in intrigued by the shift of Isa’ako to second row. We've seen a little bit of this and the former-Pelite seems as well placed as anyone to make that transition thanks to her power, footwork and general capability. Paid a few dividends here.
Broncos 40 defeated Tigers 12 (W). The upside for the Tigers is that they're the best team in western Sydney and are likely to be the team that I thought the Eels were going to be. Tough day out but not a disaster. The Broncos are good.
Titans 38 defeated Seagles 32. Anthony Seibold is sitting at home, thinking well, well, well not so easy not to suck shit is it? On one hand, I thought that Hannay was making the Titans earn the right to play freewheeling football, putting them in a miserable grind in the first half of the season, and now having down that, has loosened the reins. On the other, his palpable disgust post-game makes it clear how much work he and the team have to do. I'd probably give the boys their due before worrying about conceding 30+ to a team that was allegedly headed for the top four.
Dolphins 36 defeated Cowboys 16. That did not start well for the Cetaceanoids - the Cowboys’ second try was sensational - but they found their groove and got over the top. There’s positives for both sides. The Phins arrested their downward slide out of the finals and just need two more wins in six games to get into the post-season. The Cowboys played out another plucky loss with a 20 point margin, in the vein of the Warriors game. It’s not that North Queensland are bad, it’s just that they’re not very good but at least force their superiors to come correct.
Intermission
Sunshine State-wide
The winner is: Jeff Reibel.
Reibel severed ties with the Cowboys at the end of last season after seven successful years and he will officially take charge of the QRL in November.
“It’s an incredible honour to join the Queensland Rugby League and contribute to an organisation that plays such an important role in the fabric of our state,” Reibel said.
“Rugby league in Queensland has a proud history and a vibrant future.
“I’m excited to work alongside our clubs, participants, volunteers, partners and communities to help strengthen the game at every level.”
Jones and Reibel were considered the major frontrunners for the post after being short-listed by the QRL a fortnight ago.
So many sensational bombshells for an anodyne appointment.
Given the Cowboys’ feeder club policy during Reibel’s tenure, we can infer some changes on the horizon. November will be too late to change anything for 2027 but after that, it’s anyone’s guess. Quper League? NRL2? An 18 team touch tournament? I suppose the upshot is that this newsletter won’t be wanting for content.
The Orcas
If you want to get into the paper, send Dean Ritchie a jersey:
These are the first exclusive images of the Southern Orcas’ playing strip.
The Christchurch-based NRL bid team has designed home and away kits that are predominantly black and white with red piping — red being a colour synonymous with the Canterbury district.
There is also a subtle ocean blue through the white areas of the jumper.
Releasing the jumper designs is another significant step for the Orcas, who are bidding to become the NRL’s 20th franchise in either 2029 or 2020.
Worth noting that the Orcas was a Wellington-based bid but I guess Chalmers and Lowe sensed the shifting wind.
I think the logo looks pretty good - strong NHL vibe - but the jerseys are plain. This is an improvement on the visceral reaction generated by the Dolphins’ inaugural jersey, which turned out to be fine in the end.
I take two points of interest. The first is that we’ve seen a logo for the Orcas before we’ve seen the Chiefs’ logo and a jersey before either the Bears (which seems to be coming on August 8) or the Chiefs. I guess its easier to do if the club in question doesn’t exist in any meaningful way, except the future tense.
The second is that while officially, the NRL is paying lip service to a possible SEQ4 for NRL20, the reality is that the way NZ2 is being reported suggests it is as locked in as the Dolphins, Bears and Chiefs were. The rest is detail to be sorted out. The early reports on the previous expansions have shown that PVL hasn’t walked back any of these in a way that matters. He’s gotten the deal done.
SEQ4’s best chance in the short term is if the Chiefs go belly up and need to relocate to Ipswich, a la this classic from 2017:
THE NRL’s bluff to relocate the Newcastle Knights to Brisbane has been received with indignation in Sydney, Newcastle and Brisbane.
The Daily Telegraph’s report that league administrators will look to move the Knights to Queensland if they are unable to offload the wooden-spooners to a private buyer was on Monday ridiculed by Knights legend Matthew Johns as well as Ipswich Jets chairman Steve Johnson.
According to reports, Ipswich, in Brisbane’s west, is the likely destination for a Newcastle relocation because of the demand for a fourth team in Queensland from rugby league broadcasters.
Johns said Newcastle fans would riot against the NRL if administrators went through with the move.
“It won’t happen,” Johns told Triple M’s The Grill Team.
“Knowing the community up there. They’d set NRL headquarters on fire first.”
I assume he meant Newcastle but it would also apply to Ipswich.
How times have changed.
Upcoming slate
While the QDub takes a two week break and the QCup also takes a break next week, I did want to briefly draw attention to the NSW Cup bravely playing curtain raisers at 3.30pm and 4.30pm on a Friday afternoon and the game between the reserve Sea Eagles and the Jets being rated a flat zero/radioactive. That sounds bad until you consider this weekend’s Raiders-Tigers rendezvous in the NRLM is similarly toxic and the widest gap in competitiveness on the slate actually belongs to the Rhinos against the Bulls, with an enormous 340 rating difference.
What a competition, what a sport.
Pride vs Magpies, QCup, Saturday 3.30pm, Innisfail
What do you think will happen when one team that has five draws from 15 games plays another team that has three draws from 16? Do you think the Innisfail Inning is likely to end in a draw? Do you?!
Cowboys vs Broncos, NRLM, Saturday 7.35pm, QCB
Undertaking ARCANE RITUALS to activate the DORMANT BLOODLUST of the QUEENSLAND DERBY.
The more I think about it, the more I think “dormant bloodlust” is the new “cellar door”.
Broncos vs Knights, NRLW, Sunday 1.45pm, Langlands
Is this the only serious game of the weekend? Cowboys-Titans is rated higher but that’s Elo not catching up with the on-field. The Raiders will either mince the Sharks and make themselves into contenders or hit a hugely embarrassing wall. That leaves the contender against the not-quite-contender in the Jesse Southwell Cup (it’s also the Romy Teitzel Cup but people forget these things). I have been guilty of underrating Newcastle so it would be wise if Brisbane did not do likewise. The Knights’ lineup can take it to the Broncos.
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Stats pop
Do lucky teams hit a wall in the finals? Please God, let there be comeuppance for teams taking the piss.
Ah, no, not really. So if ever there were proof that the divine is an illusion, here it is.
The most extreme examples of luck - here measured as the gap between a team’s actual winning percentage and their Pythagorean expectation, basically outperformance of points difference - tend to flame out but not in a way that is reliable. The 2003 Panthers were the last team to win the premiership with a rating over +1.5. As it stands, the Roosters are +1.8 on this metric, currently leading the NRLM with more wins than their points difference suggests, but that would not put them in e.g. Storm ‘06, Raiders ‘23 or Raiders ‘25 territory.
Read this
Eye Test - Measuring performance of players returning from syndesmosis and Lisfranc injuries (the main takeaway being that the Eye Test has given in to Datawrapper)
Rugby League Writers - Grubbers Through The Line, A Tap Start & Tough Titans
The Sportress - Six, Again: Chaos Merchants
Storm Machine - Game 759 – S29E20 Review
Defector - FIFA Got What It Came For
Notes
There are only five rounds left in the Maroon Observer QCup Tipping Sickoship. Shamrocker currently leads, three tips clear of me and foreatesevenate. At the bottom of the table, we have a three way tie that may come down to a countback on who missed fewer tipping rounds, which puts Dan from The Sportress in reverse pole position.
Curious to see if there’s any movement on the field size for the next couple of RL World Cups. The coming 2026 event was originally meant to be a) in 2025, b) in France (and the US before that) and c) host 16 teams. The various disasters that predicated the World Cup returning to Australia saw the lineup slimmed down to 10 men’s and 8 women’s teams, mostly to save money on running what should be the sport’s international marquee event. While there are domestic governance issues that have ruled out e.g. Ireland and Italy and competitive balance issues that make adding another 6/8 teams a challenge (as we saw in 2022), I wonder if anyone at the IRL will get itchy watching FIFA succesfully expand from 32 nations to 48, and then possibly to 64, and start thinking about how to engineer 16 decent teams out of the rugby league player base and then introduce pausas de hidratación. Likely we would need to see some selection of USA, Canada, Jamaica, Serbia, Wales, Ireland, Scotland, Greece, Italy and South Africa added on the men’s side and achieving that requires a divorce of the rep game from the domestic (of which I am somewhat in favour). That said, a small pre-tournament to qualfiy for a ticket to the main tournament, and otherwise quickly weed out of the minnowest minnows, would have little commercial return. Relatedly: The World Cup Got Worse On Purpose.
For the record, rugby union’s men’s World Cup has 24 teams and will be coming to Australia (????) next year.
Must admit I hadn’t paid a whole lot of attention to DAZN, other than their colossal fuck up of Ligue 1. Mike Meehall Wood wrote about them a bit this week in a rugby league context, here’s another piece looking at the business overall and I note that the parent company seems to be mulling an IPO. Would be a good opportunity for an ambitious upwardly-mobile guy who likes doing deals to get some equity (presuming the business plan shows some signs of profitability). Relatedly: NRL-Super League negotiations set to resume following record-breaking NRL deal.
Hot seat: the Dragons signed their interim up to be permanent and Seibold is off to Port Moresby. Good luck!
Shibasaki looks to be a Bear. Also, he’s signed for Perth.
Warning - extreme Gold Coast headline ahead: Parents ‘devastated’ after Gold Coast high school axes surfing program