Spiritless garbage
Goodbye Laurie Daley
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
The races for the finals
You can find these charts and plenty more in The Almanac.
NRLM
The top eight teams seem more or less locked in. The team at risk is Souths but none of the teams outside the top eight deserve a place at the expense of the Bunnies. The best team outside the eight (Bulldogs) has 9 wins and the worst non-Souths team inside the eight has 11. This means that 12 wins might be sufficient to punch a ticket, given the unlikelihood of the Dogs winning three from six (the Broncos and Dragons, sure, but the Storm or Roosters or Souths? Hmm). The order is still up for grabs, although I would be surprised if any of the current top four - Panthers, Sharks, Roosters and Warriors - fell out for a bottom half team.
(note that the premiership favourite has bounced from Penrith to the Phins to the Warriors to the Sharks over the last few weeks - this thing has no bloody idea)
NRLW
The best two teams remain the Broncos and Roosters. The Knights clearly have something and I think you could argue the Titans do as well. The Warriors will almost certainly fall backwards into their first ever NRLW finals appearance. If the Raiders can refind some form, they should pinch the last berth, ahead of surprisingly plucky Tigers and Bulldogs outfits and surprisingly disappointing Sharks. Cronulla do tend to finish strong, so let’s put a pin in that. Despite being only a third of the way through the season, the Dragons, Eels and Cowboys have no hope.
QCup
Out of the running are the Hunters (had their roster raided and had to rebuild on very short notice), Clydesdales (better than expected but still not very good), Devils (bill for the dynasty has come due) and Tweed (dunno, look like spiritless garbage). Country Week threw up its usual array of bizarre results, which leaves us with a field that you can throw a blanket over.
The Falcons are in pole position, with 30 competition points. In second is Redcliffe with 27 and then all of four points separate them from Ipswich in 11th, with 23 points. The two hottest teams at the moment, Wynnum and Townsville, both have 9.5 wins but the Seagulls are in third and the Blackhawks in eighth. There are four rounds remaining and no way to know what’s going to happen.
QDub
Your top three are the Bears, Devils and Tigers. Collectively, they have two losses. The Tigers’ loss was to the Devils and the Devils’ to the Bears. Burleigh are technically undefeated but sit in third after consecutive draws with Mackay and Ipswich. Anyone from fourth (Ipswich) to ninth (Western) could still make up the last three places and be the team that gets put into a woodchipper by one of the top three in the prelims. The Capras have played to their usual standard, Wynnum have been disappointing and after pulling themselves off the bottom of the ladder in ‘24 and ‘25, Tweed have reverted to playing winless seasons (they lost the spoon bowl two weeks ago).
NSW Cup
No one knows what the finals system is because no one cares.
Super League
Bearing in mind that I haven't watched a full game of Super League (except one blowout in person), Leeds are the team to beat for consistency. The Rhinos are a win clear of perennial contenders, Wigan, and surprise contenders, Wakefield Trinity, who are on a six game winning streak up the standings. Saints are outside looking-in, although well within striking distance of Leigh, Warrington and Hull KR. The whimpish Catalans and down are not relevant, even if the three expansion teams have had pretty good years and might not even finish in the bottom two.
NRLQ
I have been watching NRLQ for the paid parts of the club subletters. I don’t enjoy this because it is repetitive and none of these children can defend. A seemingly insurmountable lead disappears very quickly with a bit of possession. No one tell PVL about it. He might mistake it for good footy. I endure for my readers.
The Broncos are all but eliminated. Mimicking their senior counterparts, Brisbane are not a top three team but this competition only has four. The Dolphins are all but assured a grand final place, and their opposition will likely be decided in the final week when the Titans play the Cowboys. In their last meeting, North Queensland blew a 20 point half time lead to lose to Gold Coast by 10, so we’ll see what happens.
How do you enjoy The Maroon Observer?
On second thought, don’t tell me how many of you are sitting on the toilet while reading this. I can guess but I don’t need to know.
I would prefer to think that you are enjoying these damper than usual but otherwise sunny and cool days that are trademarks of winter in this state while perusing the latest news and updates from Queensland and the world of rugby league.
Around the grounds
Panthers 24 defeat Eels 18. How do you win this much and not also pick up a sense of grace - or at least panache, something - along the way? Tom Jenkins is as unlikeable as anyone else on this team, except for Freddy Lussick, who is in a category of his own thanks to his frequent flappy-armed appeals to the refs. The NRL should cut his arms off and then dock Penrith the two points for the two sin bins pour encourager les autres.
Titans 34 defeated Cowboys 6 (W). Of the four men’s NRL teams and three women’s in Queensland, the following are no longer guaranteed a place in Around the Grounds in 2026: men’s Broncos, men’s Titans and now the women’s Cowboys join this illustrious club. There is nothing there. Gold Coast should get very little credit for doing this but do get credit for being third on the ladder.
Speaking of credit, shout out the people of Townsville. This game had an announced crowd of 10,093. Even if overstated, you could hear that the crowd was much bigger than usual. The bloodlust can serve multiple purposes it seems.
Cowboys 18 defeated Broncos 10 (M). Did you feel the bloodlust awaken? Despite Todd Payten messing with forces he does not understand, and Bob Katter’s baffling comments, I didn’t feel anything. I think there’s a piece in revisiting the mid-2010s Cowboys-Broncos rivalry, maybe one for the off-season when I have time to go back to the games. Until then, it’s not hard to work out why the bloodlust is dormant. Recently, one of these teams absolutely stinks and this night, it was the Broncos.
Broncos 30 defeated Knights 12 (W). Connoisseurs of this newsletter may remember that in 2024, Tamika Upton convinced the Southwell sisters to do a QDub season with the Capras. It did not go well and the Capras finished 2-7 with the wooden spoon. You could sense the tension through the screen from Rockhampton. The first half of this game had a similar vibe, as if a long-simmering quarrel had been revived between the Broncos’ key playmakers (Brigginshaw is clearly enjoying just turning up and doing whatever in her retirement tour). Once that was put away, and the Broncs got the ball back, then it was game over.
The Knights are clearly one of the four best teams in the league and, if they can find another gear in a preliminary final, could stage an upset over at least one of the top two. Newcastle have conceded fewer points than the Roosters, while having played both Sydney and Brisbane. Credit to Ben Jeffries, who was given another two years this week?
Wynnum 58 defeated Tweed 8 (M). Everytime I looked up, Wynnum were scoring a try. It’s times like this that make me wonder what the future of the Tweed Seagulls is in this league. Somehow Tweed are in next week’s feature game as well. Can’t even blame the Titans stink.
Titans 38 defeated Dragons 18 (M). Because the Titans are at least taking care of business. The roster is not particularly high quality but we would not have been able to reliably expect previous iterations of Gold Coast to dismantle the worst team in the comp whose morale is in the toilet. These Titans can at least do that. I ask the Dragons fans booing their team: what did you expect?
Super League highlight sprint, week 20. Shocked no one has made a run at Jez Litten in the NRL yet, as Hull KR came from behind and ultimately smashed their cross-town rivals. Wigan did likewise, running through who else but Bévan Français. Trinity got on the board in less than a minute, had a player sent off in the first half and still managed to beat Cas, 52-14 (Jason Qareqare was of some assistance). Warrington put on some late points to make some scintillating attack from the Leopards a little more respectable. Olly Ashall-Bott - think Reece Walsh’s Toulousain understudy - went out early with a hamstring injury as Catalans worked their superior experience, luck and mastery of the wet conditions to edge out their rivals in the French derby, reversing the previous SACRE FUCKIN BLEU in direction, if not in magnitude.
Farewell, sweet prine
Laurie Daley has quit as NSW Origin coach amid a health scare…
The 56-year-old has battled health issues throughout this year’s series and that is a factor in Daley’s decision to walk away following two months of incessant criticism of the Origin and Test legend.
Although Daley has denied the health angle - incidentally, its great that all of this is playing out in uncaptioned video and talkback radio, super helpful for the literate newsletter compiler - he’s going and it is a smart move to get out now. You got 2014 and with 2026, you’ve restored some semblance of respect for everything that happened in between.
This isn’t The Blue Observer though (ugh, imagine, yuck) and Slater should be concerned. Getting Queenslanders to Queensland is one thing but Billy’s choices tend to, putting it politely, leave a lot of meat on the bones. Two Suncorp deciders lost in three years doesn’t sit well, even if he has won three series from five attempts. He won’t necessarily be allowed the space for questionable decision making if New South Wales is able to either sign up someone vaguely competent or convince Cleary to come on a year early. It won’t take much in the way of poor performances for the state roles to reverse and the Maroon chalice to become the poisoned one (c.f. 2021).
While we’re here, the “NSW doesn’t get Origin” stuff has to stop. It’s not that it’s not good gear but they’re using it now with all the incisiveness of a boomer doing Minions posting. It’s deader than when a corporation jumps on the latest meme. They killed it. Let’s workshop some ideas for a replacement, and for dealing with the recent Blue transplants to SEQ (labour camps? getting the QFCC involved?), and come back to it in April.
Intermission
It’s an unorthodox technique but I’m interested to see whether using your teammate’s face as a catching surface takes off.
You’ve got to have good governance
There were simply too many PVL quotes including an appeal to good governance to pick just one for ironic contrast. In any case, this is what it looks like:
Australian Rugby League Commission chairman Peter V’landys has recruited one of his most trusted confidants - former detective, Racing NSW investigator and Perth Bears director Jacqueline Johnstone - as his top lieutenant at the NRL…
She has been a senior figure at Racing NSW, where she led the investigations and surveillance department before taking over marketing. Johnstone was also last year installed as one of the inaugural board members of the Bears ahead of their entry to the NRL in 2027. She previously had a career with NSW Police, specialising in criminal investigations.
According to sources in rugby league, speaking on the condition of anonymity, Johnstone has been brought in as acting chief operating officer at the NRL…
It is unknown for how long she will occupy the role at the NRL, which she is performing as a contractor, and if she is stepping aside from her director duties with the Bears.
Great! I appreciate the clarity - including a no comment from HQ - around the appointment of various lackeys, especially ones who were cops. I love that for us. What’s a conflict of interest? Is that the war on boredom that our friends at [insert sponsoring bookmaker here] are fighting?
Matthew Johns: Titans whisperer
NRL legend Matty Johns has been inspired by the Penrith Panthers to help transform the Gold Coast Titans into a team full of local talent
Was that… necessary?
Johns said he wanted the Titans to develop a similar pathways system to give the Gold Coast team an identity.
“If you look at the teams who have sustained success, the majority of players are from their local catchment area,” he said.
“They have grown up around those postcodes and come through the same junior competitions. They are like-minded and had the same football education, so they form combinations easier.
“The best example is Penrith. The moment they got their junior structure in order, suddenly you’ve got a crop of young guys who have come through at the same time.
“They have been educated the same way and there’s been a production line. That is what you’re after, that’s the goal.”
What were the Titans doing that this is considered revelatory advice? No one noticed the subdivisions that have been built up and down the highway over the last 20 years? Footy players come from new suburbs. Look at your city:
I would have told you the same thing and not asked for any equity. Do the Frizelles need a Maroon Observer subscription? Then again, a glance at Nearmap would have had the same insight.
And it’s not even the stupidest thing in this newsletter
Surely this is Roy’s best work since V’landys is the Greek god Apollo:
NRL boss Peter V’landys thinks big. So, here is a radical, revolutionary suggestion for him to capitalise on his $5.3 billion broadcasting rights war chest and achieve his dream of “global domination” for the code: Allow one attacking kick, or a forward pass, to an offside receiver per set of six tackles…
Ask soccer supporters their problem with rugby league and they’ll say “passing backwards”. Ask NFL fans what they admire about rugby league and they’ll say, “playing without helmets and pads.” Allow one kick to a deep offside player per set of six, and the 13 aside game would appeal to Europeans and Americans.
If you asked soccer supporters what their problem with rugby league is, they’d ask you what the fuck you were talking about. Not a single NFL fan has ever admired rugby league and if they did, it wouldn’t be for playing without helmets and pads. That schtick was made up by rugby league marketers and is almost as old as Masters himself.
As plenty of people on Reddit have pointed out, it’s probably time for Roy to hand in his papers. The piece, and I read it in full, reads like he had three half ideas - there’s something about international franchises, the Barassi Line, Christchurch - and mushed it into one column. Normally, I’d encourage people to at least hear the elderly out but I got whiplash from being bounced between topics so rapidly.
You can just stop any time, Roy. If you find yourself with an itchy finger afterwards, start a newsletter. Anyone can do it.
Upcoming slate
Cowboys vs Roosters, NRLM, Thursday 7.50pm, QCB
North Queensland won this game at Magic Round. It was a win against type, showing some tenacity, and against the odds, with the Roosters considered then and now to be significantly better than the Cowboys. I don’t buy the Roosters hype, mostly out of latent disgust for the organisation, but also their offensive advanced metrics are not hot. Easts do boast the highest floor in the league and the fourth most efficient defence. Whether the Cowboys’ trio of Drinkwater, Purdue and Clifford can break that down is the primary theatre of this battle. That bovine bench is also lacking. This the Cowboys’ last difficult game on the schedule until finals, facing four teams currently 11th or worse. A loss here would not make much difference either way but a win would be very funny.
Dragons vs Dolphins, NRLM, Friday 6pm, Wollongong
When you remember that the games are scheduled way in advance and no one thought the Dragons would be quite this bad, this is an odd timeslot. The otherwise healthy-rating Dolphins will get another 6pm Friday game in two weeks and the following week will see the Broncos make their debut in the slot. Anyway, I have some reservations that the Dolphins will serve up a 66-0 style performance but this does seem unlikely and they should exterminate the Dragons. The question is what margin do we consider an acceptable result? 30? 40? 60? 150?
Warriors vs Titans, NRLW, Sunday 1.25pm, Wagga Wagga
It’s NRLW Magic Round in Wagga Wagga. Unlike last year, this year’s weather forecast is immaculate. Given that teams have warmed into the season and are starting to play some sparkling football, this bodes well for the on-field product. I am probably more interested in how many people actually take up the NRL’s offer of a regional Magic Round than any of the individual results but Warriors and Titans will be a useful yardstick game. Both sit in the second tier of clubs, with the Knights, and the Titans’ pack has yet to be really tested in a way that the Warriors starters and bench (doesn’t seem fair to have both Butler and Nuuausala riding the pine) will be able to do. Some good matchups: Hufanga vs Chapman, Bostock vs Waaka.
What does a Rooner initiation ceremony look like?
I’ll let you sort out the details but I’d ask you go easy on the hazing. Perhaps as demonstrated by the newest member of our Rooner crew, Matt (yes, another one), it is as simple as clicking this button and following the prompts.
Welcome aboard Matt. I think with a name as common as that in middle aged male footy circles, no anonymising nickname is necessary. I did briefly consider “Hutzpah” but enh. Let me know if there’s a better choice. I should probably start a list of this.
You, too, may want to consider an upgrade to a paid subscription. Paid subscribers get full access to the Pony Pic, Bov Bull and Phin Rev, The Almanac and The Dataset™, and commenting privileges. Your financial support keeps the lights on at The Maroon Observer.
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Stats pop
The QDub, the competition everyone is definitely excited about and remembers to watch regularly, has an advanced metrics page for paid subscribers. I’ll do likewise for the NRLW in a couple more weeks.
Read this
Rugby League Writers: Diamond Shape, The Best 40/20 Ever & A New NRLW Star
The Sportress: Six, again: Collapse
Eye Test: Run meters over expected (RMOE) update after Round 21
Storm Machine: Game 760 – S29E21 Review
Duncan Mackay: The crisis that nearly killed the Commonwealth Games forever
Notes
The Chiefs signed Zac Lomax. PNG continues to work towards an answer to “what would happen if took a NRL team and gave it the absolute worst vibes possible?” In other, equally exciting news, a Senate hearing this week confirmed that third party payments to Chiefs players are subject to income tax (h/t Rooner Ryan for watching the hearings, that's commitment to the bit)
The Bears sign Tyson Smoooooooothy. Trinity pick up Mason Teague to fill the void.
Brisbane 2032 Olympic aquatic centre seating could be slashed amid budget pressures
Lord Mayor reveals priority projects to transform Brisbane for the 2032 Olympics
Rugby’s landmark concussion case enters crucial week: the key questions answered
This thought comes courtesy of the comments section at Sports Industry’s Substack. Over 24/25 NRL regular seasons, there were very approximately 91 million average viewers for regular season NRLM games, 27 million for men’s and women’s Origin and 24 million for the men’s finals series. On a simple pro rata, of the $135 million per year Nine is going to spend in the next broadcast deal ($145m less a guaranteed $10m ad buy from the NRL), means Origin is worth about $25 million per year, the finals about $23m and the regular season would be about $86m with a rounding error left over for the NRLW and internationals (although this is more laziness on my part than a reflection of reality). You might pay a premium for the grand final and Origin as rare events that have outsized cut-through, but also pay a discount for anti-siphoning, but it puts into context how little value is driven by the clubs specifically, where each regular season game on FTA is worth about half a million, compared to the revenue generated by the NRL (~$1 million per non-grand final) and Origin (~$3.5 million per men’s Origin). Always think that’s worth highlighting when club figures start talking about the toll Origin puts on their season. Reminder: you wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for State of Origin.
AFL confirms State of Origin future with Victoria to miss 2027 match. Huh, interesting.
Hotseat: I would like to applaud the Wests Tigers’ commitment to the bit. I don’t even know which recent speculation/character assassination to link to but it sounds like Benji’s going down in the next 12 months.
This presents an opportunity for the NRL to have its cake and eat it too. NRL20 goes to NZ. Then, fold the Wests Tigers, relocate the licence to Queensland and create a new Tigers club “based” in Ipswich (home ground: Suncorp Stadium). Could be run by the Ipswich Jets or a JV between the Jets, Easts Tigers and/or North Ipswich Tigers, whatever the IP lawyers decide is easiest. You wouldn’t even have to change the name, although you definitely would. Get rid of all radioactive Magpies-based attachments. Existing Wests fans would be assigned new clubs from the expansion franchises by lottery. No need to redevelop Leichhardt Oval, saving NSW taxpayers millions. Problems solved. Get it done, Vlando.
Australia’s newest media outlet used to be the One Nation Supporters Network
I have nowhere else to put this thought but I think the Odyssey discourse proves a maxim I have for social media: none of these people know what the fuck they're talking about. In any direction. I haven't seen the movie, so dunno if it's good or not but I can't believe I used to think they were smart!
Anyway, for those whose seasons are over, of you need some time filling recommendations, here’s what I’m 📖 Reading: Cave Art / 📺 Watching: The League / 🎧 Listening: The Joy of Why
Nickelware
The fate of the Queensland pennant runs through the Titans, of all teams. The Phins have matches against the Broncos and the Titans left, while the Cowboys’ last derby is also against Gold Coast. Two from two will see Redcliffe win the NRL North for the first time while a loss puts them at risk of being caught by North Queensland.
Sidebar for this headline:
Noting that, at time of writing, the Broncos are ahead of half of the western Sydney teams.