Tell it to the Chinese, Pete
Always be tinkering
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
The lack of ball knowing will continue until ratings drop
From our overlords:
The Australian Rugby League Commission (ARLC) today announced the modernisation of State of Origin international eligibility rules to reflect the continued growth and global strength of Rugby League.
Under the updated rules, any player who meets the existing State of Origin eligibility criteria will be able to play State of Origin, regardless of the nation they represent in international fixtures.
The change is that players who represent New Zealand and England are still Origin eligible, provided they meet the existing eligibility framework (born in one of the states, resided in a state since 13 or dad played Origin). I suppose the “modernisation” claimed by the Controlling Body is finally severing the link between Kangaroos selection, which is now an exclusively end of year event, and State of Origin selection, which is played mid-season.
On the face of it, and contrary to the initial understanding of most of the rugby league elite, the change makes little difference. Mulitalo and Farnworth are no more eligible for Queensland than they were last week. There are a handful of players - Kalyn Ponga, AJ Brimson, Victor Radley - who might be impacted by this. Brimson is a marginal Maroons figure, likely only called up during a significant injury crisis. It is not clear to me that Ponga is necessarily a better fit for the Kiwis than Kini. Radley is stuck behind at least two or three Blues and rapidly running out of career runway. Adding Fonua-Blake to the Blues lineup just gives a new face a chance to piss their pants in front of the nation.
Rationally, this change in isolation is relatively unimportant (although it does raise the important question of “why bother?”). Along with the 2027 Origin game to be held in Auckland, State of Origin may be the NRL’s vanguard for a conquest of New Zealand, in line with last week’s discussion of V’Lando-Leninist Thought.
While watching the All-Stars games in Hamilton, I was struck that New Zealand has the same population as Queensland and, to an order of magnitude, approximately the same level of interest in rugby when combined across league and union. If Queensland can support four or five NRL franchises, once the ghosts of rugby union have been cleared from Aotearoa by the spear tip of Origin, the brute commercial force of the NRL and the coup de grace of meaningful international representation (pending WIP), then NZ2 is setting one’s sights too low and perhaps we should be thinking, in the longer term, about NZ3, NZ4 and even NZ5.
I recognise most of this for what it is: fantasy. Imagine a Commission that could strategise! In the meantime, this means quite a lot but only in irrational ways. Crucially, we’ve now set a precedent where the catastrophic lack of ball knowing of Peter V’Landys is the basis of tinkering with eligibility for Origin, the NRL’s golden goose. I am not confident that will go well but since when does that matter?
To briefly commune with my inner boomer, I also say that attitude matters. Rueben Cotter has it, David Fifita might not and irrespective of what I think about the relative merits of those players, Billy Slater has earned the right to do whatever he likes for the next couple of series. If he decides it matters, then it does and so if your reason for not previously playing for Queensland is that you wanted to play for New Zealand or England, I think that speaks to a deeper attitude that is at odds with being a Maroon.
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Often, it is an acerbic, irony drenched, moderately cynical perspective from a middle aged white collar man, which the internet has plenty of I suppose, but it is still different enough from the fellatory house voice at the Courier Mail that subscribing is worth your time. Even with the typos.
Around the grounds
I managed to keep up with Super League in 2024 but didn’t so well in 2025. I doubt I will watch many full games in 2026 - so temper expectations for analysis accordingly - but will try keep an eye on highlights (which are less than ideal, PVL should be pressuring Kayo to do Minis for every game) to see how the French clubs go, to see which derelict west Yorkshire club is going to get relegated for Lockyer’s Broncos and to see if Bevan French and Jai Field are still considered the bar, as we run into the World Cup. With that in mind:
Super League round 1. Big week of remembering some guys and also upsets, with St Helens and Leeds looking particularly underdone. Newly promoted York surprised defending champions, Hull KR, with a single point win in the opening game of the season. The match equalizing try for the Knights was scored by former Seagull/Falcon, Scott Galleano, who the commentators clearly did not recognise, and the decisive field goal slotted by former Cutter, Ata Hingano. Former Tiger, Sol Faataape, is part of a host of former QCup guys at Catalans and scored on debut. César Rougé put three kicks onto the woodwork and missed a fourth for Olympique (no sighting of former Falcon and Italian stallion, Luke Polselli), making their win over Wakefield - greeted by a deafening silence at Belle Vue - much closer on the scoreboard than perhaps it should have been. Forgot Kyle Feldt was at Saints.
Indigenous 20 defeated Maori 14 (W). It took a little while to get going and the unidirectional wind had a heavy hand in making this a game of two halves. Defence was optional, getting close enough to the line meant that players could barge over through the wing/centre defenders, especially on the left side of the offence. Some nice moments of attacking skill on display; refer Intermission. We won’t see any of these players again until Origin in another 10 weeks.
Indigenous 16 drew Maori 16 (M). The first quarter suggested a points-fest but then the struggle devolved into a wrestling match. Not grit and grind, just back and forth with no one getting inside the 10. As was the case in the other game, getting close to the line meant scoring but getting there was challenging. Not the best or worst version of these games we’ve seen and I thought the skill level was pretty good considering it's T-2 weeks to season start. The drawn result is somewhat of an anti-climax, largely brought about by either side’s inability to set for a field goal. The QCup ass-looking Indigenous team held up well.
JESTERMAXXING Peter V'Landys BRUTALLY FRAMEMOGS Rugby Australia, causing Phil Waugh a NEAR FATAL CORTISOL SPIKE
The Controlling Body’s annual report is just around the corner, which means we are treated to a series of self-congratulatory articles in advance, touting the headline numbers so that no one bothers with the detail later:
Code Sports understands the NRL’s surplus will rise from $62.3 million last year to around $65m this year.
Revenue will increase from $744m to north of $800m, up from preliminary forecasts in October of around $770m.
In another financial coup, the NRL’s net assets have boomed to more than $390m, up from $322.3m, with V’landys outlining the ARLC’s plan to beef-up their property portfolio.
“We have recorded another record profit. This is the fifth year in a row we have recorded a surplus, which is a brilliant result for the game,” he said.
“It’s a record profit, but more importantly … in 2019, players were getting $318 million (in payments), currently they are getting $560 million.
We’ll probably have more to go on next week but any praise will be delivered through gritted teeth. Line does indeed keep going up.
Jestermaxxer-in-chief, Peter V’Landys, also dropped one of his trademark zingers:
The ARLC boss also blasted suggestions Rugby Australia is an increasing threat to the NRL, quipping: “I look forward to Wayne Bennett playing for the Wallabies at the World Cup … and Elvis Presley passing the ball to him.”
It was so funny that Badel repeated the quip later in the same article. In a separate piece about the return of AFL Origin, which I will not linking to because its written by that huge loser, The Mole, coming via Reddit:
“They followed our lead during COVID and played two weeks after us,” [PVL] told Wide World of Sports after the AFL clash.
“This was months earlier than they planned.
“They copied Magic Round, now State of Origin. I’m surprised they are not in Vegas yet.
“No matter what they do rugby league is the greatest game of all.”
Tell it to the Chinese, Pete. Wait until Peter the Great the Short learns who came up with State of Origin. He’s going to ruin his oversized, cheaply made pants.
For what it’s worth, AFL Origin between Victoria and WA averaged 843k on TV, which is the kind of numbers the NRL would kill every single person reading this for the All-Stars to put up. To that point, this weekend’s men’s All-stars match rated 389k. The huge demand from southern state governments to host and have their state take part should ensure its survival and conceptually beats the hell out of AFLX.
Does that mean PVL changed the Origin eligibility rules to keep the spotlight on the NRL? If so, we’re in great hands.
Intermission
Clydesdales secure their existing home
Sorry, missed this:
The club has played all its home games at Toowoomba Sports Ground under a lease deal with the state government.
The new deal would see the Clydesdales move their offices and staff to TSG as well as training for juniors and seniors.
Looks like the Clydesdales made an offer to the Queensland government to effectively buy Clive Berghofer? The reporting is not clear on the nature of the deal, just that the Clydesdales would use their current home ground as a more official base for the club, taking over offices and moving junior and senior training to TSG. Good for them.
As always, this is an opportunity to read the last paragraph of the Wikipedia article on Clive Berghofer Stadium and embrace some local history.
Stats pop
For the sickos, I have added Disappointment tables to each of the competition pages on The Almanac. This charts the gap between pre-season expectations (as determined by class Elo rating) and actual wins.
A reminder that if you would like some cheap publicity for your company, you can easily buy the naming rights to some Nickelware. Prices start at, what, like $20? $10? Make me an offer. If you’re a brewery, then the price is one (1) 24-can case delivered to my home.
Notes
Rugby League Eye Test: What happens before a try?
Once again, I have not been paying any attention to the Witzer Pre-Season Challenge™. Apologies if you wanted analysis of these nobodies playing for nothing.
The World Club Challenge, featuring your defending premiers, the Brisbane Broncos, is on this Friday morning in Hull. The Broncos are hoping to undo the huge amount of reputational damage caused by the Panthers turning up once in their four year run and then losing the world championship.
You have to wonder why I decided on “The Almanac” when it is simply not possible for me to spell it correctly.
Titans: Titans sign Fynn Laffranchi, son of foundation player Anthony Laffranchi, to record deal as part of junior pathways revival. Rather than drawing comparisons to Kalyn Ponga, some might rightly identify this as nepotism.
Payne Haas officially gone. I was just waiting to make sure there were no more last minute hijinks. Read the Pony Picayune this Friday.
The Questionable Science Behind the Odd-Looking Football Helmets. Guardian caps do about as much for concussion prevention as headgear.
“Using a Supreme Court writ in response to independent media asking uncomfortable questions is a clear failure of governance. It is textbook ‘chilling effect’ – the exact behaviour the NSW parliament formally cautioned Mr V’landys against only months ago.” Lol, another PVL incoming.
Multiple people stabbed outside Coorparoo’s Easts Leagues Club. I guess talks with Manase Fainu didn’t go well.
I don’t really go for Betoota as a general rule but every now and again they hit: Bad News For NSW As Origin Criteria Expanded To Include The Other 50% Of Logan That Were Previously Ineligible
Former NRL star Matt Utai victim of alleged drive-by shooting. Wut?
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Beer corner
BrewDog, owner of a large brewery/bar at Murrarie (built with state government assistance) and another large bar in the Valley, is looking decidedly sick. The Scottish brewer, who also has the naming rights to St Helens’ stadium in England (taking over from vape purveyors, Totally Wicked), is effectively in administration. Consecutive years of big losses will do that.
Despite having been to the bars in Brisbane, Brussells and somewhere else I’m forgetting, and BrewDog playing a background role in how I met my wife, I don’t have a great deal of fondness for them. BrewDog’s beers were never that interesting and the company’s marketing has always rubbed people the wrong way. They took on private equity as early as 2009, created a behemoth, and it ended as all of these investment trajectories seem to, with people losing their jobs.
One aspect I had forgotten was the Equity for Punks scheme, which was basically a glorified customer loyalty program with some wildly overpriced equity built-in. I wrote about how it smelled like a scam in 2013, nearly 210,000 investors ago. It seems it did become possible to trade the shares, and perhaps some people made money that way, but most will lose their money entirely if things continue along this path.
Superficial amateur political analysis
When I found out Annastacia Palaszczuk had resigned as Labor leader, and so was no longer Premier of Queensland, three months after the fact, I realised doing a reasonable job of this newsletter would unfortunately require a working knowledge of Queensland and Australian politics. Palasczuk didn’t strike me as a huge sports person but at least understood the fundamental appeal of rugby league in her state, moreso and perhaps more authentically than someone like Scott Morrison. Hypothetically, if Steven Miles had hated rugby league (this does not appear to be the case or is it?) and was in any way electable, would there still be a Magic Round?
Close readers with good memories may remember an essay after the federal election that has held up well enough. I gave you some confused spluttering when the Coalition did their first split in May last year and in July, we also took a look at which rugby league seats in England might flip to Reform contrasted with the RFL coup that was taking place at the time, and seems to have been mostly successful. These events have small degrees of influence on the two main priorities of this newsletter - Queensland, rugby league - but you never know when you’ll need to know this stuff to understand what’s going on.
Case in point. Over the last five to ten years, it has struck me as strange that Australia could have the character and history it has while simultaneously rejecting the extreme right wing politics that seemed to be infecting every other democracy. One part of that might be that Australia was patient zero and just didn’t notice. For example, our mandatory detention policy and attempts to outsource it seem to be increasingly popular ideas in Europe. However, the other, much larger, part is that we were just late to the party.
The most recent Coalition split has almost fatally undermined the Nationals’ credibility. Their voters’ politics don’t seem to be changing but they have decided that they can no longer expect the National Party to represent their views and are defecting in polling to One Nation. This follows the pattern we spoke about in July where the base of the useless Tories seems to be migrating to Reform. Unlike the UK, which has a first past the post voting system that loudly amplifies small changes in sentiment, this does not mean that One Nation are at any risk of forming government as Reform may well do in the next British general election, but One Nation may win lower house seats at the expense of the Nationals. Antony Green lists 12 of the 25 most at-risk seats as being in Queensland, as we seem to be the only state left in Australia that thought the LNP were worth voting for.
My inference is that the LNP’s coalition of crackpots, farmers, historical-farmers-turned-suburbanites, urbanites that think the LNP is a totem for sensible governance and people who hate the poor is falling apart. This has been a long time coming. The latter groups are going to Labor or independents. The former are going to ONP. The farmers aren’t enough of a constituency by themselves in 2026 to support a political party without significant gerrymandering in their favour but probably won’t have much issue going to ONP either.
Whether One Nation has the juice remains to be seen. The party was an irrelevance without Pauline Hanson and, I hesitate to use the word, a “charismatic” leader seems to be a common and necessary feature of these right wing insurgencies. The problem is that Hanson’s existence is offensive to a majority of Australia and I also refuse to believe that Barnaby Joyce has any broad appeal. They’re not much with her and even less without.
The dumping of lame duck Sussan Ley this week signals the Libs and Nats attempting to make a move to win back voters flirting with ONP before it becomes too late. Surely opposition to net zero, a concept a large part of the voting public has a firm grasp on, is where the voters are. The sarcasm is warranted because we haven’t seen this strategy work overseas, as once voters are turned off the incumbent conservative options, they like to see where the more radical options take them (disaster), but maybe this time, it’ll work for them.
Does any of this matter or is it all bad political theatre? I think mostly the latter. This is not a conservative newsletter, so I don’t care if that side of politics destroys itself in internicene warfare and re-emerges even more virulently racist and incompetent than before. You just don’t vote for them. However, the potential for more three-way contests in marginal seats will throw up less expected political outcomes, which has the same tone and tenor as political instability, even if it is democracy functioning as expected.
Some content
No comment. Fine, ok, sorry I posted that. Apropos of the earlier sub-headline: