The Brisbane Greater Capital City Statistical Area NRL Injury Crisis
Including a citation of Adamson v News South Wales Rugby League Ltd
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While the Broncos were being comprehensively bodied by the Storm, Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam were injured in the space of several seconds. At the time, it didn’t seem like a big deal. Reynolds pulls up lame all the time and the recovery period can range from a few minutes to a week’s turnaround. Mam’s injury history is a little more checkered but there was nothing, at the time, to suggest how severe it might or might not be.
The next day, after I published the Pony Picayune, the severity was less than ideal:
Adam Reynolds suffered a hamstring injury in last night’s game against the Storm and will not return to play for a period of four weeks.
Scans have confirmed Ezra Mam and Selwyn Cobbo each suffered more significant hamstring injuries during the Storm game and are not likely to return to play for a period in excess of six weeks.
Selwyn Cobbo also suffered a temporally unrelated but similar injury. Given the Broncos seemed poised to make do without Cobbo until his departure from Red Hill to Redcliffe, that seemed less imposing on the team’s finals prospects.
Further north, Kippa Ring has been dealing with this all year and snorts derisively at the alleged tribulations of the Broncos. Flegler, Gilbert, Bostock, Saifiti and Plath are all out for the year, Farnworth may return in time to mount a last ditch effort to win a 12th game and that’s not counting the innumerable two to three week injury spells that have plagued the Dolphins all year. The Titans and Cowboys, as woebegone as their seasons are, are positively radiating health by comparison. Sort of.
The Brisbane Greater Capital City Statistical Area NRL Injury Crisis is the primary lens through which the buildup to this game will be viewed. The Broncos’ once renowned hooking stocks have been depleted by the need to fill the hole in the halves. With Reynolds and Mam confirmed as ex-parrots, Jock Madden declared persona non grata on his way to Concorde (played a full 80 for Wynnum and is named for the Seagulls in Rockhampton again this weekend), Josh Rogers finally deemed a bust (played a full 80 for Burleigh and was outplayed by Guy Hamilton) and Coby Black presumably not ready (played a full 80 for Souths Logan and is off to Port Moresby with Anthony Milford), Hunt and Walters it is.
That opens the way for Paix to return to the starting role of overplaying his hand and slowing down the offence, and Smoothy to fill in at utility, backup hooker or middle forward, depending on how Michael Maguire is feeling and how the tarot cards are drawn. While those four players in that exact configuration is not exactly the configuration that inspires confidence, I am more curious than despondent about how much of a drop there is from an inconsistent and hobbled Ezra Mam and a sometimes ineffective and rapidly aging Adam Reynolds to the backing group.
The Dolphins’ problems are up front. The starting pairing of Mark Nicholls and Aublix Tawha is even more discouraging. This is what’s left after Felise Kaufusi, Frank “The Killer” Molo (both suspended), Flegler, Gilbert, Saifiti (all shoulder injuries) and Plath (knee) have been whittled away. An entire forward pack that could hold its own in State of Origin is unavailable to the Phins.
Fortunately, the back row of Finefeuaiki, Keeley (a guy who has delivered on the promise shown in QCup last year) and former Capra, Kurt Donoghue (I find that one less explicable) is close to full strength, if not quite ideal, and the bench has been there or thereabouts all year. Still, with the loss of talismanic centre Herbie Farnworth, the edges are begging to be picked at, as the Roosters comprehensively demonstrated. The bill for too many shuffles and changes in the line finally came due in highly visible and embarrassing fashion.
The secondary lens is that this may be the single most important edition of the Meanjin Matchup since the first one. Both teams need a finals berth to secure a pass mark for the season. The Dolphins need to deliver to reaffirm that their place in the NRL is not going to be a rerun of the Titans (we wait with bated breath). The Broncos under Maguire need to show that the change of coach was justified and that season fade-outs in 2022 and 2024 were not down to the flimsy mentality of the playing group. Unfortunately, or perhaps fortunately for the stakes of this match, it may be that only the winner of this game makes it to the top eight.
The third is that the NRL North pennant is up for grabs.
Granted, the Broncos will still need to play the Cowboys before North Queensland checks out for the season. The Dolphins will face a punchy Titans on the same weekend in the Brawl on the Beach. Those results are not as certain as they seemed two weeks ago.
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Around the grounds
Storm 22 defeated Broncos 2. Let's hear from the fans:
My expectations for this match were that Melbourne were vulnerable, but that dissipated with the visitors halves went down with hamstring injuries. Melbourne coasted somewhat in the second half, so this one just ended up in that weird realm of Melbourne doing what they always do by beating the Broncos.
The ol’
has gone pretty easy on us, both on the pitch and in review. I didn’t expect anything but an L out of this game and taking the two early was a complete confirmation of that view.Roosters 64 defeated Dolphins 12. This would have been less infuriating if the Roosters weren’t such smug assholes.
Roosters 24 defeated Titans 8 (W).
Broncos 44 defeated Raiders 28 (W). That was entirely too close, as close as I was to ripping my TV off the wall. It is something the Roosters would never have let happen. Let’s hear from the fans:
There’s possibility there. Canberra got the score to 26-22 and looked the team with the running. And then after the Raiders had a chance to go ahead it all came back. The pivotal point was the set after Simaima Taufa was snotted by her opposing number, a tackle that would normally have given the Raiders a numerical advantage. The Milk failed to score, made an error on exit at the other end and then the Broncos scored. They never looked back. Canberra made errors again, their defence fell apart. It was as if they spirit got broken just one time too many.
Rabbitohs 20 defeated Titans 18. As very annoyed as I was about the outcome (Latrell’s aggression when he gets beaten is very tiresome - have some dignity, dude), it is very difficult for me to pin the blame on anyone but the Titans. If Jayden Campbell plays with a little bit of game awareness, he doesn’t get the ball slapped out of his hands, scores a try and Gold Coast win, with or without a late penalty that should have been given. The Titans have played like they deserved the spoon all year and now it is finally within reach.
Eels 19 defeated Cowboys 18 (M).
Cowboys 14 defeated Eels 10 (W). I only caught the second half of this game but saw the Eels had an excess of possession at half time. I figured that would swing back and sure enough it did, back into the Cowboys’ favour, and that was probably the difference in an otherwise tightly contested match. There were more than enough errors to go around - unable to determine if fatigue or pressure or both. Can’t say I particularly noticed the presence of Kirra Dibb but the fact that the ball still runs through Tahlulah Tillett is a huge feather in her cap, showing the leaps forward she’s made over the last two years.
Random women’s statewide split screening. I had way too many games going to really pay deep attention to anything, which is why they all get mushed together. Tuned into the Capras game and they were already down 10. Came back later and they were down 20 and I tuned out again. In a weekend of chalky results (Pride defeating Devils, 20-12, perhaps aside), the Jets’ jersey stood out as particularly horrible and I had written them off by half time. Imagine my surprise.
Random men’s statewide split screening. Adam Christensen (Burleigh) caught the eye, especially as a feeder for a club who needs second rowers. The Dolphins weren’t as psychotically violent as they were under Ben Te’o but managed to play tough enough to hang with the Bears through most of their match. The Phins let themselves down at the end, after the broadcast had cut out. The Capras hung tough against the Falcons but couldn’t contain Nelson Asofa-Solomona. Wonder how that would have gone without Big NAS? There’s still a bit of life in Central Queensland. The Blackhawks blew Wynnum off the park early and easily. The Magpies’ and Hunters’ wins over the Cutters and Clydesdales respectively were close at half time but got out of control in the second half - not a terribly surprising outcome for two of the worst teams in the competition. Tweed showed a surprising amount of ticker in the first game of Penna’s lame duck tenure to concede a field goal to the Tigers’ Ryley Jacks (73’) and find a way to win nonetheless, after swapping the lead all game.
For a chance of pace, a women’s draft
The magic of the NRL is that any team can beat any team on the day. The danger for the NRLW is if the top teams continue to hoard talent, the game risks becoming too predictable. Here’s how to fix it.
Other than the need to fill column inches with - and I use the word in its lamest sense - provocative ideas, what is the deal with journalists’ collective fetish for a draft?
Drafting workers is a restraint of trade (Adamson v News South Wales Rugby League Ltd) because Australia believes that the plantation mentality that governs US sports is not legally tenable and morally repulsive. This is a fact rugby league, the working class game, should be proud of and yet seems to have no conception. I, for one, can’t imagine what philosophical issues the Murdoch-owned newspaper would have with that.
The law does allow leagues to implement rules that could function as restraints of trade provided the rules are reasonable and serve a higher purpose of keeping those players employed. Player fines and the salary cap scoot in under this provision, i.e. punishing players with fines improves the overall value of the product by not offending mums at home, and keeping the clubs from financially immolating is in players’ best interests so they can continue to have jobs. Feel free to debate the merits of these arguments at your leisure.
The draft could be taken to court again to test its reasonableness but the AFL has negated the need to do this by including the draft in its collective bargaining agreement. This seems like the route the NRL would have to go and given how the last round of negotiations went (completely stalled until PVL caved), the only way a draft is coming in is if the players want it, which I’m going to guess they are at best apathetic. You can file away any concerns about the transfer system similarly.
That aside, the effectiveness of the free-ish market for labour should not be in dispute. The very recent history of the NRLM demonstrates this clearly. The Panthers ran their junior system with ruthless excellence, have won four premierships in a row and they’ve been picked apart by the market with fat offers from other clubs. As a result, Penrith have come back to the pack. The market, in this case, works.
The NRLW’s specific situation has been exacerbated by the NRL. If parity was the goal, the NRL completely mistimed their changes to the structure of the league. By introducing multi-year contracts in 2023, while doubling the number of teams from six in 2022 to 12 now, the existing teams were in pole position to lock up as much talent as they liked before the Tigers, Raiders, et al had a chance.
This is common to all expansions. American sports get around this a little bit by having expansion drafts. Putting aside the legality once again, the money in the NRLW isn’t sufficient to accommodate that. If your life is in Townsville, being drafted to Sydney is a death sentence for your NRLW career. You can’t necessarily pack up and move your life for five months’ pay.
That’s the real difference in the NRLW. If Canberra offers you $60k and Brisbane offers $55k with a much better team and you don’t have to move house, what’s the $5k really worth? You’d lose that in relocation costs.
What is the Raiders’ or Tigers’ ability to overpay to attract talent? It is necessarily limited by the low cap or, perhaps, the narrow gap between the cap and floor. If the floor were lowered, the overall quality would likely drop as cheap-skate clubs save on playing talent. If the cap were raised, clubs would complain about the cost of women’s football, as the Warriors, Roosters and Dragons used to do under Greenberg. There’s no winning there.
Still, it doesn’t take a lot of insight to see that the NRL is incapable of developing a system that would do much better. They can barely regulate the game they’re in charge of and they presumably have some institutional knowledge to rely on. Now you want them to devise a labour market contest on top of that, because some clubs can’t manage their rosters? And the best anyone can come up with is resume points? Please.
Giving bad clubs a hand out to promote fake parity (and likely cause noticeable second order issues) is exactly the kind of thing that undermines the legitimacy of sports. Let the teething issues work themselves out then let the clubs sink or swim, like we do with the men.
Intermission
Heads would have exploded over this kind of thing a mere 15 years ago in the NRL and now the standard of play is so high, its just another highlight in QCup.
Can't decide if kick is assy or classy.
Sunshine State-wide
The NRLQ, the hastily arranged four team, six week competition for under 20s signed to NRLM clubs, is complete. The league leaders were the Dolphins, finishing with a 6-0 clean sweep of their Queensland rivals. The Red Fish were the only team of the four to finish with a positive points difference (+138 or 23 points per game), ahead of the Broncos (3-3, -12), Cowboys (2-4, -32) and Titans (1-5, -94), the latter managing at least to get off the mark. There are no finals but Redcliffe were clearly the best team in the league.
Having watched less than a minute of play across the length of competition, I can’t tell you anything about the teams or players, other than the Broncos blew their huge 22-10 half time lead against the Dolphins in round 6. I also can’t say that the competition has captured the imagination of anyone in my extremely limited sphere but the NRL clubs at least supported the concept and a few highlight reels were compiled.
The series returns next year “as Queensland Rugby League aims to create pathway parity with the New South Wales NRL clubs.” That suggests that a national youth comp won’t be making a return in 2026, which always seemed too soon. Thinking NRLQ would be a one-off, I didn’t give it much creedence but I’ll endeavour to pay more attention next year, especially if its not organised a week in advance of play commencing.
Whether the competition will expand in length remains to be seen. The calibre of player in the NRLQ already has Mal Meninga Cup and schoolboy obligations or is on the fringes of Queensland Cup, so adding a lengthy NRLQ to the workload may be counterproductive. On the other hand, a four team, six week competition is hardly parity with Jersey Flegg.
The Queensland Cup is entering its endgame, with teams only having two or three games left to play on the schedule. Norths, Townsville and Burleigh have formed up as the clear leaders of the competition. They’ve cleared a small gap to Wynnum, who have lost their last two games (against the Devils and Blackhawks) and are showing signs of strain. The Broncos’ injury crisis will absolutely not help.
The race for fifth through tenth is close, separated by two wins across six teams. The Tigers and Magpies are outside, looking-in and only have two games in hand while their rivals all have three opportunities. I haven’t been particularly impressed with any of those teams but they should provide entertaining fodder for the first two weeks of finals before we get down to business in the preliminaries.
In the QDub, the Tigers and Magpies are the two standouts. Between them, they have one loss which was inflicted on the Magpies by the Tigers. After seven games, there’s already a two win gap to the next best teams on 4-3: the Devils, Bears, Falcons, Pride and Jets. The Clydesdales aren’t out of it but two of those teams will fall by the wayside. I would’ve said the Jets might be it but they clawed back an early 18-0 deficit to beat the Bears, 24-22, a huge result. The competition is tighter than it looks and with the relatively lower standard of play, it is much easier to catch a good team on an off day, so I think this is more open than it looks; last year’s Cutters were the first minor premiers to actually win the title.
Upcoming Slate
Devils versus Tigers (W), Friday 7pm, Bishop Park
Primetime Friday night game for first versus third! What a treat, especially given neither of the NRLM games are that compelling (the Roosters suck, come on). Grace Griffin is a big out for the Devils and given the pace the Tigers have been operating at, that could be an uphill struggle for the home team. Tip: Tigers
Broncos versus Dolphins, Saturday 5.30pm, The Cauldron
Yeah, you, a subscriber to this newsletter, should probably watch the biggest game of the week featuring two Queensland teams in a national competition. Tip: Broncos
Hunters versus Magpies, Sunday 3pm, Fort Moresby
We have been given a mini-round of QCup (with no games in Brisbane!) and it’s not clear if there’s a feature game this weekend. If not, we’re skipping over the slightly more highly rated Falcons/Dolphins to tune into the PNG broadcast. The Hunters and Magpies are both best described as ‘inconsistent’, and perhaps ‘erratic’, both capable of high levels of footballing prowess and both capable of throwing it all away on a whim. If we break out the Punnett square, I estimate about a one-in-four chance of this being an absolute banger and about the same for total crap. Tip: Hunters
(Tips 33.5 / 64 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Notes
Tahnee Norris steps down as Maroons Origin coach. A little bit surprising but maybe not? There hasn’t been any news on who will fill the vacancy but any of the assistant crew - Meg Ward, Greg Inglis and Dave Elliott - could make a decent case. Ward coached Norths to a grand final loss last year and always seems to be around. Inglis has been working with the (Wests) Tigers women’s program. Elliott got shafted from Norths for the return of Rohan Smith but had won the ‘24 QCup with the Devils.
Dolphins prop Tom Flegler gets green light for NRL return, sets sights on round 1 of 2026 season. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Melbourne elder lashes Storm as battle with board intensified ahead of Indigenous round. The Storm is not beating the one of your owners is racist as shit charges.
'Friendly competition' emerges to determine PNG's NRL home ground
Englander explains exit. The Englander in question is a director of Salford, who was sick of being abused by fans for being an accountant. Who needs that? It’s fantastic that fans will chase away anyone with better things to do with their time and only end up with people who have nothing better to do in positions of power.
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Panthers breakthrough for first win after Today Show surprise
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