The cash burning, footy spewing machine
Unlike every other Victorian, the Storm are leaving the sunny confines
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
À bientôt, Melbourne
NRL powerhouse Melbourne is pulling out of Queensland – the rugby league heartland that delivered Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk to the Storm.
In a development bombshell by the Storm, the club’s successful 27-year association with Queensland is over, with Melbourne set to sever ties with feeder teams Brisbane Tigers and Sunshine Coast.
Instead, the Storm plan to field their own reserve grade team in the NSW Cup next season in a historic move for Melbourne…
It’s understood Melbourne see the merit in keeping their second-string players in Storm colours, which builds the continuity that many of their Sydney-based rivals enjoy with their NSW Cup teams.
From the feedback I’ve received over the years, people come to this publication to get an interpretation of extremely esoteric events like this. In terms of predictive accuracy, this is like getting a tarot reading, if we’re being perfectly honest, but we nonetheless seek meaning in the random tumult of the National Rugby League.
The important context for the 99% of readers who don’t click links is that this was quoted from a Courier Mail column that is a half step above rumour mongering on Whatsapp. What’s actually happening isn’t exactly confirmed by the Storm’s very vague statement and neither Coorparoo nor Bokarina appear to have commented.
Taking this at face value, this move fits in with what the Storm have been doing. The Storm pulled the Thunderbolts from the QRL youth competitions and put them into the NSW system in 2019. After picking up a feeder deal with North Sydney for 2024, that seemed like opening the door to be more blue-oriented than maroon. The Storm made a big deal of extending their relationships with the Falcons and Tigers in 2021 to 2024, and then throttled back the number of fringe first graders being sent to Easts and Sunshine Coast over the last 18 months to practically zero. With the Bears now aligning with Perth for 2027 onwards, this is the final step in an apparent multi-year process to disengage the Storm from the QRL structure.
Arguing about prospects staying in “Storm colours” seems at-odds with our current conception of the clinical Melbourne machine. The logo on the jersey has to be about the least important part of anyone’s professional development. I wouldn’t be better at my day job if I stayed at the one place my entire career and, with some exceptions, it’s unlikely that you would either. One only has to bear witness to the Galvin saga, the most recent and highly visible revision of a thousand similar situations revolving around MAH JOONYAHS, to see the value of loyalty in the zero-margin, any-means-necessary world of developing elite athletes.
Given the current post-covid productivity of the Queensland pathways system - Lachlan Hubner and Tristan Hope aren’t exactly Tino, Drinkwater, Fogarty, Hynes, Grant and so forth - I can’t say I particularly blame the Storm. The supposition then is that Melbourne think they can do it better in-house and no longer need to defray development and reserve grade costs at Norths, Easts or Sunshine Coast because of V’Landys’ largesse and prevailing in-vogue ideas. For most clubs, I would find that a laughable attempt to mimic the Panthers’ magic of the early 20s and be tossing around Dunning-Kruger (looking at you, Cowboys) but Melbourne do have a point and a track record.
The risk for the Storm exists in the longer term. Commercially, the club really thrives because of a large portion of its fanbase lodged in Queensland. The Storm would likely still be in the NRL with an exclusive focus on Victoria but what makes Melbourne big (and certainly bigger than Sydney-based scribes give credence) is that they can pull 40,000+ to Suncorp to play the Broncos along with the equivalent TV ratings. Few of the moribund Sydney clubs that clog up the sport can offer anything similar.
That fanbase exists because of the golden generation of ‘83ers, whose names I don’t need to recite, supported by a cast of lesser but still heroic Maroons that provided both this state and that club with its long term success. Suppressing that connection to Queensland will see that portion of the fanbase wither over time, as people lose interest or age out of this existence, and those that would otherwise have replaced them, go elsewhere. C’est la vie. Maybe more Victorians will invest emotionally in the Storm, as the NRL finally goes national, and make up the difference.1
For Queensland Cup, in the short term, we’ll dissolve the Duchy of Upper Melbourne and move the Falcons and Tigers over the Free States from next season, moving into a niche occupied by the largely failed splicings of recent weird one-way quasi-feeder relationships2 - Blackhawks/Rabbitohs, Clydesdales/Bulldogs, Jets/Roosters - that never seem to deliver anything tangible for the Queensland club.
Sunshine Coast might end up with the Democratic People’s Republic of the Dolphins but that would saddle Redcliffe with four feeders, an unwieldy arrangement but not unprecedented. More radically, Redcliffe could cut the Capras loose and just focus on being the team of the Near North Coast, from the (Pine to Noosa) rivers to the sea.
The Broncos could shore up their south side support with the Tigers but that would be just as unwieldy with the Bears, Magpies and Wynnum already on the books, unless Burleigh goes back to the Titans. We’ve seen these dominoes fall in a similar pattern when Norths left for DPR Dolphins, Burleigh to the HBE and Ipswich to The Titanate but it’s all about as meaningful as a random round of Risk.
Whether the Falcons and Tigers end up in a different confederation at all will probably tell us more about the medium-to-long term future of the Queensland Cup. A mutually beneficial NRL affiliation might indicate a future. Permanent assignment to the Free States might presage the rest of the comp eventually joining them.
In 2021, PVL was insistent we’d get a national reserve grade and all three grades on game day. This vertical integration was pushed by the ever honourable Phil Gould. A similar hubris from Jeff Reibel and Micheal Luck led to (what I am hereafter going to refer to as) the Kyle Laybutt scandal in 2023 that we are still feeling the reverberations of now, as Kirra Dibb works out if she wants to live in Cairns. That push fell in a heap because there were other priorities and the money wasn’t quite there.
The money seems to be there now, as every club totes its profitability and covid recedes into the memory, which has to be removing some of the last hurdles from agreeing implementation on a second NRL. Based on the Laybutt scandal, it’s clear that the Cowboys and Titans would prefer their own teams if they could swing it politically. The Hunters are going to end up working for the new PNG team from 2028. That really only leaves the Broncos and Dolphins to go to bat for QCup and it’s not clear how enthusiastic they are for that fight. The Broncos are owned by Newscorp - not exactly the most sentimental of operations - and the Dolphins might be happy running the Redcliffe Dolphins in NRL2, just as the Tigers run the Western Suburbs Magpies in NSW Cup. Since settling the funding lawsuit, the QRL has taken a much more conciliatory tone towards the NRL and cut the guts out of their content team. Is that enough circumstance to draw a conclusion about the future?3
A world where the NRL clubs employ enough players to cover rosters for two senior men’s teams, at least one women’s and an under 21 team looks a lot like the structure of the sport through the 90s, although the ‘no chicks allowed’ sign has thankfully been taken down. Under the direction of the tinpots at Phillip Street, it was a structure that sent the first Perth team broke. In that world, what does the Queensland Cup look like or what purpose does it serve? Will there still be a NSW Cup or will it be down to to the Sydney Shield? What happens to the Ipswich Jets or the Newtown Jets?
The answers are simple, which is probably “no one knows” and more troublingly, “no one cares”. There’s a lot of rugby league’s heritage at risk and few in the past have shown the stewardship required to keep it intact and meaningful, preferring to shovel as much as possible, other than a protected and sanctified few, into the dustbin of history as quickly as possible. What might be preserved is whatever can be crudely constructed into a liferaft pointed towards the safe haven of the NRL - c.f. the Jets/Jets bid or the Tigers’ now defunct Firehawks - and the rest will be all at sea.
This is a fear expressed previously but worth reiterating. With the boundaries of football drawn around the NRL clubs, with the ladder pulled up behind them, and with anyone over 19 worth a damn plying their trade in the 20 team, double-decker NRLM (or in a revitalised European comp), there seems little resources left for a healthy ecosystem of semi-professional clubs to continue to exist, let alone thrive.
The Devils, Magpies, Seagulls, et al might wind up re-joining Valleys and Wests in the BRL as rich and dominating clubs operating on match payments, outgrown their suburban origins but with nowhere else to go. We might get really lucky and have a cross-border, NRL-independent minor rugby league for clubs too big for district footy but not big enough for a licence but the likely best case scenario is those clubs will have to contend in regional leagues. You might be able to put together a half decent Southeast Queensland Cup, I guess, but the regional brands might only make an appearance for a few weeks of rep footy. The Queensland rugby league (sub-NRL division) of the future might have more common with the turbulent Winfield State League than the stability of the post-2008 Queensland Cup.
Whether that provides a meaningful enough product for 1200 people to attend a sunny Sunday arvo at Bishop Park or pay $50 a year for Qplus or if it will all be sacrificed for the ghost audience silently clamouring for NRL2, remains to be seen. Any allegiances formed between the former statewide franchises with NRL clubs in this milieu will be token and exploitative, only serving the cash burning, footy spewing machine V’Landys, Abdo, Gould and co have built.
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Around the grounds
Storm 28 defeated Titans 16. I only had half an eye on this and you can read better analysis at Storm Machine but I thought this was funny: Key three: Origin trio inspirational as Storm surges on Coast. Key 2 was, “Debate enrages over crucial denied try.” Enrages. Enrages. Wonderful stuff. Key 3 suggested Jojo Fifita might be in the Maroons frame (he broke his hand, so probably not) by quoting his stat line of “xx runs for xx metres, xx try assist, xx linebreak and xx tackles (with only 1 miss).” Great performance.
Cowboys 32 defeated Tigers 28. Turns out that North Queensland very susceptible to anyone playing with pace and determination for 15 minutes if they think they have the game in the bag, which sounds like a familiar refrain. Fool me once, etc, etc. Deeply unserious team, yadda yadda. More to come in the next Bovine Bulletin.
Seagles 36 defeated Broncos 6. The Manly fans were hypocritical to boo Mam. This is the club of Matt Lodge and latterly of Addin Fonua-Blake, among others, and let’s not forget the pride jersey fiasco. Still, fans were right to be aggrieved by the shit show served up by the Broncos. They paid good money to attend and this what they get. If I could boo my Kayo sub, I would too. More to come in the next Pony Picayune.
Jets 42 defeated Clydesdales 12. This was 24-0 at the half so the final scoreline flatters. That’s roughly when I checked out as Western could not hold on to the ball. It’s one thing to be bad and outclassed, it’s another not to do the basic stuff right. Allan Fitzgibbon looked like he was having fun on the wing.
Hunters 20 defeated Pride 16. We’re zeroing in on why the Pride are 2-8 with a -6 points difference. It’s either that they’re not fit, so can’t compete for 80 minutes, or too slow, and have to wait ages for the game to come to them. The Pride also suffer from North Queensland Syndrome: lots of talent but can’t put any of it together consistently. Northern had a few nice moments over a ten minute span but were getting beaten through the middle and the left side of Roltinga and Wane had a lot of fun at the expense of Tupou and former Clydesdale, Esom Ioka. Isaac Lumelume wasn’t much better on his side. The Hunters are a fun team, even if they literally dropped the ball through the middle third of the game for a sub-70% completion rate. The Pride’s fullback was Shamish O'Quinn Orangi Harland, making his third Cup appearance.
Blergh
Game 1 for the men was about as listless and uninspiring a performance as could be hoped for. The Blues lacked the killer instinct to really go for the jugular, playing boring and conservatively, as if this was the Panthers choking the life out of the sport circa 2022. Plainly, it’s a pathetic attitude to have. This is why they don't get Origin.
Another reason they don't get Origin is the bandwagon fans. Either half the population of Sydney has relocated to SEQ during covid, which is plausible, or they've all come out of the woodwork for a sure thing. They've all brought with them chips on their shoulders, although it’s completely unclear exactly what adversity they have or are overcoming. Not pissing their pants at playing at Suncorp with a much better team? Bravo. That's almost as courageous as last year's 12 man effort. So brave. Stunningly brave, even.
Getting Origin is about getting the struggle to overcome the oppressors, even if the oppression is a minor case of history, culture and economics and not political; snobbishness rather than, you know, slavery. Being the oppressors and taunting the oppressed isn't anything. It also has a shelf life: go ask the concept of hereditary nobility, and many of those nobles, how that went for them.
The Maroons played sideways, one part a lack of forward power, one part lack of back yardage and a third part cowardice from the entire spine. Fixing some of those problems requires rolling the dice because Slater’s process, such as it is, isn’t working. BuT wHo ElSe Is ThErE? I sorted all the Queensland eligible players (there’s 103 in the league plus Jake Turpin) by Z score, ignored Harry Grant and his ilk and got this line up:
Walsh
Coates
Purdue
Howarth (less sure of this choice after the weekend)
Taulagi
Mam
Cherry-Evans
Carrigan
Walters (Billy or Kev, your choice)
Horsburgh
Fermor
Nanai
Fa'asuamaleaui
Mann
Bullemor
Kerr
Plath
Tabuai-Fidow
With Fogarty, Arthars and Loiero on the extended bench.
Firstly, an apology to Corey Horsburgh. You may be a crying cad but you'd offer more than Fotuaika. Secondly, the drop from some guys who got turned into paste and their next best replacement is simply too far to contemplate, so Carrigan, Cherry-Evans and Nanai get to keep their jobs. Thirdly, Walsh, Taulagi and Plath were injured so Slater gets some slack for that.
But it’s not hard to turn over almost an entire Origin team (and not waste time with 17 minutes of Fermor and 27 of Dearden) and still get something that may get beaten just as badly. The Maroons have lost two games in Perth by approximately a thousand points but at least it wouldn’t reward the absolute mediocrity served up to Suncorp last Wednesday. If nothing else, there’s a lot of match payment and bonuses on the line here.
Game 3 for the women had a different moral. No matter how crap the ball handling, no matter the total lack of mobility, no matter the complete absence of playmaking ideas, the fear of the sweep is almost always greater than the motivation to inflict the sweep. We haven’t had one since 2010. Not even the watery 2021 Maroons, down 76-6 after two games, managed to get washed. It’s been 15 years and there’s two multi-game series to consider now. So congratulations, ladies, you managed not to put up the worst performance of any Origin team in recent memory.
The greater, and more serious, lesson is that the gap is never as wide as it seems. It’s always bridgeable. The Maroons were down 14-6 with 20 to go in game 3 and 16-6 with 30 to game in game 2. Those similar starting points had very different endpoints but the path wasn’t as divergent as you’d assume. But in game 2 (or men’s game 1 down just 12-6 for most of the second half) you’d have thought you were asking them to go to Neptune. That’s not something we should ever see.
Intermission
Heh, man fall down.
This is what it looks like when the AFL takes over western Brisbane.
Sunshine State-wide
The first round of NRLQ was played and if you missed it, you’d want to kill yourself, such was the high intensity of football being played. I mean, I forgot all about it after last week’s newsletter went out, until I saw the Dolphins beat the Titans on Monday. The North Queensland Cowboys apparently played the Washington Generals, which does not bode well for some of the issues to be highlighted in a forthcoming edition of the Pony Picayune.
Then again, who are these guys?
Cam Bukowski also fronted up for Wynnum in Cup. If two of the more hotly touted 19-year-old Broncos contracted players are being played in Cup, presumably because its better experience, the NRLQ may just be sweeping up Mal Meninga Cup guys who aren’t in a schoolboy system and aren’t active in a senior comp. What exactly are we expecting the under 21s comp to achieve that a good run in Cup can’t?
Hotseat
(this is not what you would call a scientific endeavour)
Adam O’Brien 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Des Hasler 🔥🔥🔥
Michael Maguire 🔥🔥
Todd Payten 🔥
Benji Marshall 🔥
Anthony Seibold 🔥
Upcoming Slate of Sludge
Knights versus Sea Eagles, Thursday 5.20pm, Newcastle
Five. Twenty. PM. On a Thursday. For NSW Cup. How does all three grades fit in with the Thursday night game (or the early Friday slot for that matter)? It doesn’t! 11th plays 12th, which goes a long way to explaining the scheduling. Like eating an ortolan, you have to hide your face and watching it will be as pleasant as eating a drowned bird whole. Tip: the winner will be everyone who doesn’t watch or participate
Clydesdales versus Bears, Saturday 3pm, Toowoomba
Oh sure, you could enjoy an absolute barnburner between Townsville and Wynnum Manly in the week’s feature game or you could get a Qplus subscription to watch one of the consistenly better teams in the league destroy the worst team in the top two flights of rugby league, this side of Salford. Can’t wait for the BMD to start so I can drop this bit. Tip: Bears
Bulldogs versus Eels, Monday 4pm, Sydney
Why is there footy on a Monday? Don’t you people work? Where’s Queensland’s public holiday footy?4 Tip: Bulldogs
(Tips 17 / 37 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Read this
The Sportress: Six, again: Stuck in the Middle and again, Six, again: Action Oriented. Good stuff coming out of The Sportress if you can also handle an ungodly amount of Raiders content.
Beyond the Goalpost: A wooden gate against a rolling stone
Dan Walsh: NSW have been ‘de-Pantherised’. And that’s all they ever needed
Rugby League Writers: Jargon, A Cleary Masterclass & The Danger Of Midfield Bombs. The jargon explanation is particularly good.
League Eye Test: Mid season advanced statistic leaders for 2025
Titans dot com dot au (?): 'Rugby league was a leveller': How Morgan changed Australian sport
Notes
The Dolphins will play a home game in Darwin each year from 2026 to 2028 at TIO Stadium, building on their highly successful Top End debut in 2024 where they defeated the Parramatta Eels 44–16. The Territory Dolphins! They have to take the Eels there to complete the humiliation. Please.
Olympics: Three proposals, three locations for Victoria Park stadium
Titans: Keano Kini signs up for 2030. I heard this was for rather a lot of money which… why? The Titans just cannot get out of their own way and construct a normal roster. This, while cute, seems faked somehow.
Not rugby league: Record high gold prices prompt revival of outback Queensland mines
Nickelware
The Storm share some ownership with the Melbourne Aces, who just pulled out of the ABL, so who really knows what kind of strategic decision making is going on there.
We call type D (like a diode), to distinguish from type F, true two-way feeders, and type R, reserve grade teams.
*draws Queen of Cups* huh… what the hell does that mean?
Once again requesting an all-Queensland double header on the August show day.