The monkey's paw curls for thee

Rugby league doesn’t exist to make you happy

Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.

Raiders reality

The chaos of Sunday’s finale could have been avoided by Zac Hosking not running through Reece Walsh’s leg. He could have hit Walsh in the body, or charged down the ball or avoided him altogether and there would not have been a penalty. Instead of offering a textbook example of what running through the legs looks like, this would have been a simple and elegant solution to win in regular time, avoid any sort of self-reflection and set Canberra up for a much more embarrassing and devastating loss in a later game. Losing 28-26 would have been fine, considering how the game unfolded, and I had already plotted the Broncos’ route through weeks 2 and 3.

But the Raiders heroically, emphatically and repeatedly tripped over their own shoelaces. They conceded a shitload of points in not very much time. They couldn’t even do simple things like not knocking on the ball in an aerial contest with the worst aerial team in the league, or set for a field goal against the dumbest himbos in the competition; Jamal Fogarty offered another convenient offramp from disaster that was not taken. The Broncos practically begged the Raiders to win, offered opportunity after opportunity, and the Raiders couldn’t get in done in 93 minutes, eight of which the Raiders had a man-advantage, with a 16 point lead.

The wash-up has been waves upon waves of despair from a fanbase who can’t hack the cut and thrust world of The Big Game. The reaction is as if they had been relegated from the NRL and not lost a qualifying final by Ben Hunt’s wobbly second career field goal in highly visible fashion.

It seems some don't like being on the wrong end of an instant “classic” match. Boohoo. Brisbane has warehouses full of those games. One is dedicated just to Storm victories and another to the Cowboys’. Raiders fans complain that they never get paid enough attention. Welcome to the show, enjoy the spotlight. The monkey's paw curls for thee.

Maybe it’s just losing finals. I’ve seen Payne Haas’ team get blown up 58-0 in a final and cough up the largest ever comeback in a grand final. Conceding 16 points in 20 minutes: imagine that. Those games were four years apart. You haven’t even been eliminated yet and the garments are rent.

What about the head butt? Lol, if only a precedent hadn’t been set! No one got upset about that because it happened to the triple-spoon Tigers but offend the blue bloods at Canberra and you have to answer to The Hague. If it pleases your honour, I submit that if you get a light bump from Walsh’s forehead and then proceed to let him single-handedly dismantle your defence for 15 minutes, then winning isn’t for you. Indeed, where was Hudson Young on the afternoon of Sunday afternoon while this was happening? I move a motion to dismiss.

Part, perhaps most, of this reaction is the Raiders fanbase grimly clinging on to its manufactured identity as a bunch of plucky upstarts enterprising and efforting their way into the big kid club against all the odds. It is time for a reality check. Putting aside that this is the team from the home of Australia’s national palace of power and corruption, since the start of 2019 to the end of the 2025 regular season, the Raiders have 102 wins. The other clubs with more than 100 wins are the Panthers (133), the Storm (132) and the Roosters (110), i.e. the three clubs that have won all the titles in that time. The Broncos have 79.5. The Tigers have 49.

It might be time to start pondering why Canberra also didn't win a title. It has nothing to do with good and evil, pluck and determination, or any of that other bullshit that the fans try to sell you on why the Raiders are special. It is competence and that starts and ends with the guys on the field. No amount of Rickypilling is going to change that.

I’ll grant you some degree of NRL-Roosters conspiracy¹ in the 2019 grand final but blowing the 2020 prelim before I’d sat down at Suncorp, beating Melbourne only to choke on Parramatta in 2022, losing in 2023 to the same coach that took the Knights to a spoon and this? The Canberra Raiders, and no one else, are the lowest common denominator in those events. You can make all the excuses you want: injuries, refs, ran out of gas, the way the wind blows, ne’er-do-wells, blah blah blah. You’re still in the void.

The taste of their own medicine was a further shock. The usual Raiders gameplan requires complicity from the refs to ignore or overlook the Raiders’ penchant for niggle. It is a hand here, a tussle there, positioning that’s annoyingly in the way but not enough for the cowards to blow the whistle. It all adds up over 80 minutes. That blew up in their face and without the complicity that normally underpins their tactics, the endeavour looks a lot shakier in its absence. Hint hint, NRL. This is what happens in the big moments in big games: the refs can shatter into a trillion pieces too.

The Raiders also rely on weird things happening. Three Broncos kicks doinked off the posts at different points of the game. Sometimes it goes in. Sometimes it doesn’t. It cuts both ways. You are not and were never God’s chosen people to have a special run of flukey bullshit. You are just like everyone else, subject to the highest laws we know: probability.

There is no winning a game three times. You win it once or not at all and shit will happen along the way. If the slightest trace of this mentality reaches the players, then you all may as well give up and go home. This isn’t the place for you. Rugby league doesn’t exist to make you happy.

If you want to sit with the adults, put your big kid pants on. You lost a game by one point. The premiership is still there to be won.

Related reading: Dear Long-Suffering Fans: Keep It To Yourself

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Around the grounds

What a weekend of football. I would normally consider watching this much rugby league live to be a waste of a weekend, which are preciously short as it is, but I leaned in to the buffet of finals footy on offer or at least, as best as I could with most of these games on during daylight hours when I have supposed parental responsibilities.

Storm 26 defeated Bulldogs 18. The first half of this game was atrocious, unbefitting any finals game, let alone a top four matchup. The second half improved to a more appropriate level. As suspected/known, the Storm have weaknesses but the Bulldogs really lack the guts when it matters. It will never not be funny that they sacrificed any entirely winnable premiership for Lachlan Galvin. This week’s assignment is Lisati: good? Hear from the fans.

Bears 44 defeated Devils 6 (W). It wasn’t even really this close. The Bears were briefly, maybe, possibly, sort of, in jeopardy before the half when it looked like the Devils might start cutting into the lead but that didn’t last long. Deleni Paitai is a name to remember, which is ironic because her sister, Memory, also plays for the Bears at five-eighth. Between them, they scored three tries. Paitai!

Broncos 50 defeated Cowboys 4 (W).

Titans 17 defeated Raiders 16 (W). I hadn’t planned to watch this but after the Eels won their game and temporarily rose to sixth place, I thought it would at least be worth checking the scores. As of halftime of Phins-Hawks, the Titans were on the precipice of being the Titans but pulled off a worthy fightback in the end. In golden point, there is no one in the women’s game you’d trust with the game winning goal than Lauren Brown. The Titans were more organised than either the men’s Broncos or Raiders. The Titans wrap up a finals spot in thrilling scenes/way more difficult circumstances than necessary.

Dolphins 22 defeated Blackhawks 16. Townsville were always at risk of losing this game and they got out-enthused and out-worked by the Dolphins in a shoot-out. A bit weird for the once-high flying Blackhawks to finish on four straight losses, bookended by Dolphins wins, but there’s usually a top four team that falls flat on their faces. This might even be the Blackhawks’ primary trait as a club. Redcliffe looked better than I had given them credit for, coming into form at exactly the right time, but I think they will hit the Burleigh wall pretty hard.

Panthers 24 defeated Warriors 8. The first 25 minutes of the Warriors teased me into thinking that they might end the Penrith streak here and now, under the leadership of Tanah Boyd, which would be the funniest possible combination of events. It wasn’t to be and the New Zealand team wasted their opportunities, such as they were, while they let Nathan Cleary and Co run riot over the field. These are not world conquering Panthers but they can still cause plenty of damage. Neither of these are novel observations.

Sharks 20 defeated Roosters 10 (M). A contest in which its a shame that both teams couldn’t lose and be eliminated. After a hot streak of offence, without being asked much on defence, the Roosters finally ran out of runway. The real Cronulla, the beefy one that competes in the middle that we’ve been waiting to turn up, finally did and gave City plenty of grief. In the end, the final result felt almost inevitable. With two good performances against decent teams, the difficulty level ramps right up for the Sharks.

Pride 30 defeated Jets 12 (W). I don’t think it means anything that the Jets fielded a completely white girl-free team but it is interesting, and suggests the construction of the roster has a certain connection to a specific part of the community (as tangentially indicated in this bizarrely targeted but timely Instagram post from the ABS). Either way, the Pride had them covered for the full 70 minutes and had significantly more pace and muscle. It was always going to be a big ask but the Jets earned their place here by beating Souths Logan but were on empty well before the end of the game.

Wynnum 34 defeated Jets 12 (M). Ipswich played undisciplined, committing dumb penalties and errors right when they least needed them. The Jets unleashed a few hot plays and sort of had themselves in the mix but Jock Madden wanted it more and the Jets made life less trying than the Bears the week before. Ipswich had a fine year considering where they were in 2023 but still room for improvement. I’ve decided Ronald Philitoga doesn’t offer much that Del Hoeter or Josiah Karapani doesn’t, so I look forward to the Storm signing him and turning him into the next Xavier Coates.

Lae Tigers 36 defeated Mendi Muruks 12. I tried following PNG NRL during the 2020 season, when I would pick up the highlights but had never managed to source a full game. With the PNG NRL team coming in, the increasing cooperation between the countries and the lead up to the 50th anniversary of independence, I guess it’s less of a surprise for the PNG grand final to get a broadcast into Australia. Frankly, there should be more of it. The game itself was over fairly quickly with the Tigers taking advantage of the Muruks’ costly blunders and building a big lead early, leading 24-zip after 25’ and then getting swamped by the Broncos game. The pageantry before the game was interesting. Here’s a taste:

Broncos 29 defeated Raiders 28 (M). Well, then. That game was a microcosm of the Broncos’ season: hot start, flail about for a bit with an unexpected Walsh absence, get him back, fire on all cylinders, find a way to win. That’s this team and they can do it against anyone but they might also not. Given the lack of explanations for consistency, we are then left to consider juju: will they mentally collapse against the Panthers? Will the Storm storm all over them? Will the result against the Raiders flip in a re-match? Does buying tickets invite bad luck? Will lineup changes affect the heretofore successful gameplan? “Yes, probably” to all of the above but also “maybe not”. We are beyond the realm of the rational and just have to take it as it comes.

The trub with the Dub

This season sucked. It is very difficult to get around that. I haven't watched the Broncos for a few weeks because I knew they were going to win. The Titans have been fun wild cards though and even with the chalkiness of result, the season should still set up compelling elimination finals, lopsided preliminaries and an all-mighty grand final.

But the 2021 men’s season also sucked, and in much worse, more publicised, self-inflicted ways. Not only did we not do this level of existential hand wringing about the outlook for the game, things got significantly better after it.

This isn’t a single datum, as the NRLW has (anecdotally) trended about 25% of the NRLM ratings since as far back as 2022 and has done in the examples I’ve been able to find for this year, as provided by friend of the newsletter, Sports Industry. That might sound like a lack of growth but a) the NRL’s ratings have been growing and b) we’re doing order of magnitude analysis with some error margins. Here’s some more datapoints.

The recent strategy, which I think has proven a winner, is to not ask for any money in the current cycle, get Nine/Fox to produce the games and put them all on the air to draw in fans. Scheduling has been and remains something of a mess, especially during covid. Introducing multi year contracts and rapidly expanding the league at the same time undermined any chance of parity but the concerns over the lack of parity are always overblown. The NRL is more popular than ever during the Panthers’ multi-year premiership run. People like winners.

With the next TV deal on the horizon, there remain numerous questions about the women’s game. There is no doubt in my mind that the NRLW is here to stay. Even if the only valuable part was the three 1 million viewer Origin games, you would need the Dub to provide a competition that Origin could draw on. The questions are:

• how quickly will the NRL want to get to 17/18/19 teams?

• where are the players going to come from to support that expansion?

• how much do the women want to get paid?

• how much many do broadcasters want to part with?

Note that concerns over quality of the product, growing the game, whether the Dub should precede or follow the Big M, etc are not included. Even if you could measure those things, no who matters cares anyway. As the NRLM consistently shows, if you put the right logos on slop, people will eat it up.

The AFLW has changed seasons, still doesn’t seem satisfied and remains unable to see that the women’s competition’s best purpose - as currently constituted - is to be an attention gap-filler in, around and sometimes over the men’s comp, so that people are never not thinking about the NRL.

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Intermission

Team PNG: Pacific Police.

Watch for the shoe throw. The referee deemed it “not in the spirit of the game.”

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Hotseat

The Walker Brothers are back:

Western Clydesdales are thrilled to announce Ben and Shane Walker as the head coaches for the club’s 2026 Hostplus Cup season.

Before you jump to conclusions, the only thing that really grinds me about this is that the news dropped two minutes before last week’s newsletter was sent out, which included my declaration that the carousel closed. Stupid. I even thought to myself, “What about the Clydesdales?” but assumed they’d stick their current course. I guess we will re-open the carousel and wonder about the tenure of the Cutters’ Adam Cuthbertson while we’re here.

The advantages of employing the Walker Brothers in this specific job seem good:

1. Gets more coverage for the club

2. Might make recruiting players a bit easier

3. Might actually know what they're doing

4. Track record of building clubs up from spoon level to premiership winners

5. Would be great if the bottom end of QCup was more competitive

As for the cons, it’s going to be annoying hearing Walker Brothers PR machine for the first few weeks - we have had two mentions during the QCup coverage on the weekend - then the novelty will die down. This isn’t Belichick at UNC or Deion at Colorado, after all. The Clydesdales aren’t going to get 6+ million audiences.

Upcoming Slate

That is one super-looking Saturday.

Tigers vs Pride (W), Saturday 12.05pm, Langlands

The Tigers have won every game this season by an average of 16+ points. These two met in the first round and the score of 26-16 makes it look closer than it was. One garbage time try to the Pride after being stuck in their own half lends respectability I suppose. Expecting Easts to have a very easy ride if their pack keeps everyone else in check.

Winner through to grand final. Tip: Tigers

Bears vs Dolphins, Saturday, 2.10pm, Pizzey Park

This year’s Burleigh have resembled the Bears of old (i.e. the late 2010s), with a physically dominant presence in the middle and capable playmaking to good but not great backs. A classic structure. The Dolphins have been all over the shop, finishing sixth and 11-9. After losing to Burleigh (30-12) and then Sunshine Coast (32-0), they’ve strung together four wins, a run of late season form that seems suspiciously tied to the presence of Josh James at half. I can’t really go past the minor premiers and I’m not sure it will be close.

Winner through to grand final. Tip: Bears

Knights vs Titans (W), Saturday 2.30pm, Newcastle

The two best halves go head-to-head, yet again. We saw this match just two weeks ago and the Titans absolutely blew any chance of winning in the last 90 seconds. Hard to imagine Newcastle will let them get that close again but Gold Coast have put together two strong finishes and they only lost to the Roosters by 16, the equal fourth narrowest margin of the year (4, 12 and 14) which seems less impressive now that I’ve written it out, but I think shows there’s something there. I don’t think the Titans should be favoured but they will at least make the Knights work for it.

Winner faces Broncos in prelim. Tip: Knights

Cowboys vs Sharks (W), Saturday 4.15pm, QCB Stadium

The Cowboys won this match in the regular season, which was surprising to some. I’ve thought too much was made of the Sharks’ finish to 2024 and the Cowboys looked super cohesive early in the season, so I was not surprised. Still, it was a tough and weird encounter, played as a lengthy game of force ‘em back. Cronulla are not winning their games by much, lost to the Bulldogs recently and can blame both on a low output offence. North Queensland have beaten everyone they were supposed to (except the Warriors - blame the rain) by a good margin but also lost to the Knights, Roosters and Broncos without landing a blow. If you can unlock the Cows’ defence, then its your game but the Sharks’ attack is not that.

Winner faces Roosters in prelim. Tip: Cowboys

Raiders vs Sharks (M), Saturday, 7.50pm, Canberra

Well, well, well. I would normally think that Canberra would waltz in to victory here, probably by double-doinking in a three point field goal that they invented just for this game somehow. The most immediate results show a defiant, even commanding, capacity for straightforward play from the Sharks and a potentially devastating loss that will end the season and derail the entire club for years to come for the Raiders. Whether this very young Canberra team can recover and refocus is mostly up to Ricky Stuart. The Sharks will play it straight down the line and force the Raiders to find a way to win. Will gladly accept being wrong if the Raiders can make Ronaldo Mulitalo cry, or at least shut up.

Winner faces Storm in prelim. Tip: Sharks

Magpies vs Bears (W), Sunday 12.05pm, Davies Park

This might be the most compelling women’s match in a bit. The Magpies have the biggest, rowdiest pack and have taken scalps all year (except the Tigers). Souths Logan won this game convincingly in round 2 so I may be being sold on Burleigh’s crushing win against the Devils too much because the Bears’ in-season record doesn’t really stand up to the Magpies’. Interestingly, both teams lost to Ipswich. Burleigh have much more big game experience, I’m still not over the Magpies’ 2023 botch job against Wynnum and it is the Bears’ turn to win after a NQ team claimed last year’s trophy so gotta assume they win here. Paitai!

Winner through to grand final. Tip: Bears

Devils vs Seagulls (M), Sunday 2.10pm, Bishop Park

Jock Madden versus Sean O’Sullivan. Can you find a more compelling set of talents? You can? A few paragraphs higher? Oh. Well, this is a long newsletter. This rematch of the 2021 grand final is interesting to see just how much both teams have changed. There are a half dozen players that were there for that and will be there for this. If Selwyn Cobbo gets on for Wynnum (a veteran of 2021 himself), that might create a few highlights but the Devils should have the measure of the Seagulls across the park. It might be low scoring but I’d be surprised if Norths find themselves in trouble.

Winner through to grand final. Tip: Devils

Bulldogs vs Panthers, Sunday 4.05pm, Pootown NSW

A bunch of former Panthers take on their former club in this western Sydney derby that, unlike most western Sydney derbies, might be potentially interesting, even if the styles are similar and boring. Reed Mahoney is in the 17, Matt Burton is in the centres to make room for future Catalan Dragon, Toby “Sex Machine” Sexton and Bronson Xerri shows up in the other centre with Crichton likely injured. The Panthers run it back with the same lineup that beat the Warriors. Expecting this one to have lingering notes of emotion but will be primarily driven by a) Nathan Cleary’s ability to carry his team, b) the Panthers’ pack’s commitment and c) Dylan Edwards’ dropsies, with the Bulldogs sort of passively stumbling into whatever result the Panthers allow.

Winner faces Broncos in prelim. Tip: Panthers

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Read this

• Rugby League Writers: The Bottom 9

• Campo: How [Beaudesert’s own] Jamal Fogarty learned to be the hero Canberra needed for its premiership charge

• Paige Schouw: 'Makes us believe': Hoepper inspiring future stars for NRLW chance she missed

• Nick Tedeschi: The greatest game of all? Broncos v Raiders NRL classic might just be the best of all time

• Jacob Grams: Clutch moments just a walk in the Pizzey Park for Brown

Notes

• Crazy that “Billy Walters, ACL damage” is big news but he’s done good this year. The injury news is all over the place at the moment, so we’ll reserve judgement on what changes get made until next week’s newsletter.

• Looks like one of the few regularly good writers on The Roar has established a website dedicated to the history of the BRL. Interesting to poke around. Looking forward to someone completing the history of all results.

• GIICA have opened expressions of interest for principal architects for the Brisbane Stadium and National Aquatic Centre

• Lachlan Murdoch seizes control of Broncos, associated business interests

• Latrell leaves Brisbane for South Sydney, Gosewieski and Paix extend

• “Blackhawks coach Terry Campese says wing sensation Dudley Dotoi should be playing in the NRL and have recruiters rushing to sign him as the club embarks on a do-or-die finals expedition on home soil.” Yes, sign him, someone for the love of god.

• Q&A: Darren Lockyer (London Broncos owner-elect)

• Top broadcaster and writer Andrew Webster quits SEN over homophobic inaction

• It’d be appreciated if the Roosters could stop hurting Tarryn Aiken so she has a chance to play meaningful football for Queensland.

• State pride goes on the line in National Schools finals

• Ezra Howe, former Gold Coast Titans recruitment manager, was meant to head to the Bears before he was discovered to be building a list of Titans player to tamper with (the list is very funny, as if you needed big brains to figure it out Tino would be good to ahve). That may have fallen through as the Bears now appear to be poaching Dane Campbell, formerly of the Cowboys and recently (last four months) of the Broncos, to head up recruitment.

• Spain’s PM calls for Israel to be barred from international sport over Gaza

• Man charged with giving Nazi salute at Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns AFL game at the Gabba. Hmmmm.

Nickelware

With the men’s and women’s Queensland pennants, the Affiliates Premiership and now the Combined Minor Premiership wrapped up, the Broncos have swept all available nickelware in 2025. Now to win a real trophy!

Some content

Someone - it may have been former Senator Andrew Bartlett but I may be getting my last few minutes on Twitter confused - asked me a couple years ago about the Caxton Party House - dating back to this very early post. I didn’t have any answers but an actual person went and spoke to the resident and here are the answers:

9newsqueensland

A post shared by @9newsqueensland

1. For the record, I had written this prior to Dan’s email being issued. I think we nicely got around “great minds think alike, fools seldom differ” idiom here.