THE WEEKENDLY: A Black Hawk flown over Mogadishu in 1993
THE WEEKENDLY: A Black Hawk flown over Mogadishu in 1993
Previewing round 26 of the NRLM, round 6 of the NRLW and the first week of the Queensland Cup finals
NRLM Round 26
COWBOYS VS DOLPHINS: As recently as six weeks ago, you would have pencilled in a clean North Queensland win and not given it a second thought. Since then, the Cowboys have been on an almighty slide back into the abyss out of which they had already crawled. The Steel Greys atomised Wests, 74-0, had the bye, beat Manly and Parramatta, lost to the Titans and Broncos, had the bye again, and then got cleaned up by the Sharks. Losing to the Broncos? Sure, it stings but they’re good. Losing to the Sharks? I guess, if you have to. Losing to the Titans? That’s terminal. By contrast, the Dolphins are the perfect picture of steady competence, except they haven’t actually won a game since beating the Titans back in early July. The Cowboys might fancy themselves against a team on a five game losing streak but those are exactly the circumstances in which the Dolphins thrive but have recently failed to deliver.
Expressing the idea that this might be a compelling match-up is stretching various concepts to breaking point. There’s definitely a complementarity of styles that might make this game interesting. If we set aside the very real possibility that handling errors or bland tactics or general incompetence turn this into an eternity of a slog to simply endure, then I like the idea of seeing if the Cowboys can arrange themselves into a defensive line for long enough to keep the shell of Shellgrit that is actually on the pitch at bay for any length of time. Similarly, can North Queensland get out of their own way for long enough - looking at you, Chadley - to get through a replacement level but well coached goal line defence and score some points? 14 should be enough.
It’s a home game for the Dolphins and a derby, which they’ve won all of bar the two against the Broncos. The only derby the Cowboys won was at the start of the year, when we were wondering when or whether they might turn up in 2023, over a Titans side that had lost a few players during the match.
Expect the Dolphins to take a memorable win to cap off the season.
TITANS: Speaking of complementarity of styles, here comes the Storm and Titans game. Since that game in 2017, the only time the Storm lost at full strength to anyone that season, I’ve always had a hopeful eye on this pairing, which probably deserves a name in its own right. The Titans even managed to deliver on that promise in round 3, winning 38-34 in a similarly crazy boilover.
But the Titans are done for the year and Sami and Campbell are out while the Storm desperately need a few more tune-ups before launching into the finals series, especially if Papen-mania takes the field in Melbourne. There’s just a huge disparity in motivation, so the - let’s just call it The Chaos1 for now - just doesn’t quite have the juice it usually does. Expect the Clouds to deal with the Tans easily.
BRONCOS: To alleviate concerns that this newsletter will become unabashed Broncos cheerleading until their inevitable and disappointing preliminary final exit while the other Queensland clubs finalise their campaigns, I will recuse myself from preview proceedings this week. Instead, this week’s preview comes courtesy of our friends at The Sportress:
During the following NRL game I don't think I uttered a word. I didn't cheer any of the tries, I didn't curse any of the errors. I just sat there in a kind of stupor, occasionally tweeting some sort of witty repartee (oh and you better believe it was witty). In short, this Raiders team has emotionally ruined me in 2023.
It’s going well then. You can read the rest here.
Bonus highlight
Sua Faalogo, you’re hearing it more and more.
NRLW Round 6
COWBOYS: Gotta win. That’s all there is to it. You can’t be the team that gives up the first win to the currently winless Eels. The Cowboys have beaten the Knights and the Tigers and despite copping a couple of floggings, they are more than capable of beating Parramatta, even without Shaniah Power. Gotta do it. Gotta get it done. Might be the last chance to get a win in 2023. Expect the Cowboys to do just that.
TITANS: I didn’t have particularly high hopes for the Dragons this season and so far they’ve met those expectations. I’d feel significantly better about the Titans’ chances if they hadn’t lost Bass last week and Fuimaono hadn’t disappeared into the same mystery spot as Ozzie Smith. Jaime Chapman and Rilee Jorgensen recovering from head injuries are big ins to help shore things up. This is a good opportunity for Gold Coast to right their defence that had been solid up until last week’s capitulation. Expect the Tans to put it together and keep their finals chase alive.
BRONCOS: Let’s hear from our friends at The Sportress again:
Taufa is leading the Dally M votes, she is leading the player of the match polls on the podcasts, the internet forums, and my heart. Her engine is massive, her carries are flawless, her tackles don’t miss, and is the first person to put their hand up for the hard work. Anyone who watched the Broncos last weekend knows that this could also apply to Mariah Denman who lead the stats in tackles (28) and run metres (239m). Most of these carries went straight up the guts and sucked in enough defenders to create opportunities for the Broncos later in their sets. Expect big clashes this weekend.
Read the rest here. I can’t say I disagree.
Queensland Cup Finals Week 1
MAGPIES VS TIGERS: This should be a local derby, with the two clubs’ home grounds traditionally being located all of five kilometres apart. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your residence), the Magpies’ pivot to Logan means this will be held far from Davies and Langlands Parks and outside the bounds of the City of Brisbane. It’s no matter and we should be glad that the game is on during the day, so we’re not relying on the lights.
The Tigers beat the Magpies by just two points in their only meeting this year with Souths Logan just running out of time to complete a late comeback. The two sides match up well, filled with Broncos in black and white and Storm in black and gold. There’s two tough packs, some crafty fringe first graders in the playmaking positions - Tristan Sailor, Cory Paix and Jonah Pezet probably don’t need introductions - and some certified Cup Dudes in the likes of Solomona Faataape for the Tiges and Jack Campagnolo for the Mags. Expect the talent up and down the park to deliver a high quality, if not especially flashy, game but for Easts to prove too good.
BEARS VS CAPRAS: This was a week 2 final last year. After Burleigh were upset by eventual premiers, Norths, 20-19 in the first week, they took out their frustrations on the Capras and didn’t give them any oxygen on the way to a 32-16 win. A glance at the team sheets then and now and it’s clear both sides are a step down in quality this season, Edrick Lee excepted. Jack Madden and Guy Hamilton go head-to-head once more in the halfback stakes. If it’s hard to imagine the Capras beating the Bears, it’s because it’s only happened ten times previously, or in about 20% of their previous meetings, and the most recent was in 2017. Expect the form line to hold and Burleigh to strangle Central once again.
REDCLIFFE VS SUNSHINE COAST: I can’t find any odds for this game but I imagine the Dolphins start as favourites. While that makes logical sense, the Falcons have been in such hot form, especially Sua Faalogo, that I fully expect Sunshine Coast to be more than competitive. The Falcs did lose both games to the Phins this season, as well as picking up a bunch more embarrassing losses along the way, as well as signature wins over Burleigh (twice), Souths Logan and Easts. Sunny Coast clearly can do it on their day; the question is whether it is their day.
Redcliffe are also in fine form, especially with the return of club legend Cameron Cullen, doubly so that Cullen is fine form himself and looks as if he never left. Valynce Te Whare and Trai Fuller are both big ins for the Dolphins. Te Whare lines up on the unfortunate Kane Jackson, although I don’t envy Caleb Jackson having to square up against Justin Olam. The Falcons’ starting props and one half of the second row are Storm-contracted, although that doesn’t necessarily mean better than the Dolphins’ counterparts. In an ideal world, both of these teams would in week 2 instead of serving up cannon fodder from the other elimination final. Want the Falcs to stage an upset but expect the Dolphins to win.
WYNNUM-MANLY VS NORTHERN: We all had a good laugh at the Blackhawks’ expense, taking all the Cowboys NRL-contracted players and having about as much success as a Black Hawk flown over Mogadishu in 1993, while their erstwhile stablemates, the Northern Pride, managed to make it into the finals with a horrific points difference. That comes to an end now. Despite a wobbly final few weeks of the regular season, Wynnum are more than capable of milling the Pride into a fine dust.
With Adam Reynolds out, that elevates Jock Madden to the Broncos’ starting line up and leaves the Seagulls’ own Brendan O’Hagan in the halves with Josh Rodgers. Against any other team, the Seagulls would probably prefer to have Madden than not but his presence is probably not required here. Deine Mariner has been looking every bit the first grader since his return from The Show and will easily carve out points, never mind the eternally capable Delouise Hoeter on the other side. It’s going to take a lot, and I mean a lot, for the Pride to be competitive. Expect a comfortable Wynnum Manly victory.
Proprietary vibes-based tips
NRLM: Dolphins small win, Titans big loss, Broncos small win
NRLW: Cowboys small win, Titans small win, Broncos small loss
QCup: Tigers, Bears, Dolphins and Seagulls for wins
Watch Guide
Limited in time? Here’s what’s good in Queensland rugby league this weekend.
As if it needed saying, you should make time to watch the Queensland Cup finals. Only the Northern Pride are really letting down what is a quality slate of games. The NRL matchups, both M and W, are far less compelling, although Broncos-Raiders might be fun in the NRLW if there are hijinks afoot and the last Queensland derby of the year - already, somehow - is in prime time Friday night footy.
Quality (Q) is rated by the average of the team’s Elo ratings - the higher the average, the higher the quality of the match. Competitiveness (C) is rated by the difference of the team’s Elo ratings - the smaller the gap, the more competitive the match. Matches are rated in each category from very high down to very low and given a star rating from one to five accordingly. Bonus stars available for Queensland derby in the NRL (+1), statewide feature game (+1), PNG home game (+0.5) or the involvement of the Dragons (-0.5).
Notes
Analysis from friend of the newsletter, Rugby League Eye Test: The Dolphins’ Debut Year Has Been a Tale of Two Seasons.
Coverage of the last round of Colts, including the bizarre finish between the Cutters and Magpies for the final finals place, and the finals of Schoolboys and Schoolgirls championships:
If you did not like this week’s “I don’t like this Broncos NRLW team” commentary, then you might prefer Rugby League Writers’ Oscar’s perfectly reasonably breakdown of their play. Jason also looked at the effectiveness of the Titans’ attack and Sua Faalogo.
Titans extend Tanah Boyd to ‘25. Not a part of the ‘26 Gang. Interesting.
Corey Thompson is officially retiring from all footy.
Justin Holbrook has been appointed coach of PNG. “A massive coup”, although that has a different meaning there.
The Dolphins will play in an alternate strip this weekend, which is black and has 2024’s sponsors, Anglo American, on the back. Great to see Redcliffe innnovate in the field of trying to extract more cash from their fans for merch.
The Dolphins annual lunch will feature Wayne Bennett talking to noted scholar Ben “Dobbo” Dobbin and “world class magician”, Raymond Crowe. It’s $240 a head.
Given the talk of defamatory content from fans, I would like to issue a pre-emptive but very sincere apology to anyone who has ever worked for or is working for or will work for or has played for or is playing for or will play for or has had or has or will have an ongoing relationship with the Brisbane Broncos, North Queensland Cowboys, Gold Coast Titans, Dolphins (NRL), National Rugby League, Australian Rugby League Commission, Queensland Rugby League, the 15 QRL statewide clubs, the other 13 NRL clubs, Brodie Croft and any former club that played in the BRL, NSWRL or ARL or Australian Super League or in any other rugby league competition that has ever existed or will exist in perpetuity throughout the universe2, for any and all commentary, opinions and analysis in relation to performance, intellect, administrative capability, body odour, status as a loser or an irrelevance or other qualities of the people in question. I withdraw those comments and apologise for any imputations, hurt or embarrassment that these may have caused.
Not Queensland: The Super League TV deal landed and it’s… down… a little bit. I think in a non-inflationary environment, chopping a mil off to get all six games produced each week (up from two or three, currently) is a worthwhile exchange and offers Super League an opportunity to properly monetise the other games, instead of letting the clubs do it. Unfortunately, we do live in an inflationary environment, so you’d need to mentally slice another 10 to 15% off the deal to account for the economic changes of the last two years, which is a less compelling outcome. Cranks like me, and really anyone with eyes, have been warning that rugby league in England is in real trouble financially and yet the clubs and the RFL have continued to sleepwalk to this outcome. IMG may have come too late to turn things around.
Not rugby league: I briefly remembered the existence of the AFLW while procrastinating at work. Turns out the season has been moved to later in the year, running September to December, with the AFLW players doing a similar double duty to the NRLW players in calendar year 2022 to facilitate the switch. While it’s not precisely what the NRL does (the AFLW grand final is in December and not shared with the AFLM grand final), I think that’s a pretty clear sign that the idyll of summer footy is not what it seems commercially and that talk about moving the NRLW to the start of the calendar year should end. I think what we’re seeing is that if the audience will make time for the men’s version, because it is big and important, then organisers are preferring to use that runway to lead in to the truncated women’s version and piggyback on the viewing habits formed around the men’s comp. The Tour de France does this. The NRL does this. The AFL now does this. Of course, it would be preferable if the women’s version was not a truncated version of the men’s but we are a while off that in rugby league. When you consider the weather in November through March, and that it is likely to get much worse long before it starts to get better, then the idea of semi-professional athletes playing football to produce broadcast inventory in the middle of summer starts to become less compelling from a safety and quality perspective, unless every game is going to be played at night and even then, not in Queensland.
Speaking of The Sportress, what is going on in Canberra?
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The Titanomachy? War in Heaven? The Olympian Cup?
But not the New South Wales Rugby League