The world’s longest groan

And the 2025 NRLQ Season Preview

May 27, 2025

Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.

Ugh, Origin

Let’s get this over with: Hayley Maddick is playing fullback on Thursday night. If you can imagine the world’s longest groan, double it in length and that’s close to my feelings. Maddick has skills but can barely hold her position - physically and professionally - in the NRLW, let alone Origin.

Then double the groan in length again as I read through the changes to the spine and pack to accommodate Keilee Joseph’s injury and absence. While Joseph isn’t exactly in red hot form and Brigginshaw to lock isn’t unprecedented, it has usually occured when the team she’s playing for already has a big advantage in platform laying, which the Maroons have not shown themselves not to have. I seem to be not the only person who’s forgotten about Emily Bass because she’s listed as 19th player, despite Queensland desparately needing someone who can run for yards in the back line.

The other pieces shuffled in and around are fine, and it is what it is, but the plan seems to be to take a team that’s 40 points in the hole over the first two games and weaken it further and hope that works. While a lot of this is unavoidable, I can’t see any way the Blues don’t walk all over the Maroons here. There is simply no path to victory. Backs. Against. The Wall.

For the men, by the time most of you read this, you’ll probably know the result but let’s look over the team again with some numbers.

That looks surprisingly even? The Maroons are at level pegging, or slightly better, in each platoon, other than the bench. If they can hold serve between pit stops, and assuming Slater does something normal with his rotations (what is Tom Dearden for?), the starters should at least be in the game.

There is a tendency to doom and gloom Slater’s selections - with good reason (what is Tom Dearden for?) - but there are holes in the Blues team too. Robert Toia, Mo Fotuaika and Rueben Cotter: gross. But also, Liam Martin, Spencer Leniu and Stephen Crichton aren’t looking much better. Those players have gears that the Maroons players haven’t shown themselves to have (mostly, yet), so we’re not quite so back, so much as it’s not quite over.

This feels a little like the start of 2022 when it felt like the Blues were considered unbackable favourites, after the crushing success of 2021, and sort of just crumpled in the games that mattered (I am aware of the score from Perth). The Maroons capped off a memorable series win by riding Dozer home.

Historically, playing at home is worth something like six to eight points to Queensland and under the old player rating systems, the Maroons used to reliably overcome a talent deficit worth about 5% in win probability. That’s the quantification of Queensland spirit right there. The Blues’ spirit is being led by a guy who lost to Kevin Walters, repeatedly.

Tip: Queensland 13+ (x2)

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NRLQ: Finally

It’s what we’ve all been waiting for. After being tantalised in the pre-season, the QRL has finally launched NRLQ, which is not a competing magazine with The Maroon Observer but rather a football competiton in which the women are replaced with Queensland:

This will be a home-and-away round robin competition contested between Under 20 teams from the Broncos, Dolphins, Titans and Cowboys.
The competition aims to enhance elite development pathways by addressing the current void for Queensland-based NRL clubs following the conclusion of the QRL’s junior representative competitions, including the Mal Meninga Cup Under 19s competition and related representative games.
In part, this series has been designed to create parity between Queensland and New South Wales NRL clubs, where all NSW clubs have the opportunity to play in the NSWRL Jersey Flegg competition.

I think it’s a hard sell that a six week, four team comp is really “parity” with Jersey Flegg, which runs the same length as the senior men’s seasons, but I guess it’s something. That this was carried on the NRL dot com website, even if it is being run by the QRL, makes me think a national U21 comp is definitely happening. Again.

This is all downstream of the clubs suddenly finding themselves flush with cash and suffering from widespread Dunning-Kruger, despite all available evidence. I’d rather see a NYC return than more hotels being bought but surely there’s a club in the country that could use some flood relief, instead of pursuing blind vertical integration.

Given a global sporting trend of elite athletes being competitive earlier in their careers, the need for NRLQ or NYC or whatever suggests the Q4 and the QRL don’t really believe in the quality of the pyramid as it stands. The former is less surprising, especially Micheal Luck, whose own track record in this department is patchy to say the least, but the latter is worth keeping a tab on.

As for NRLQ, broadcast details? Haha, dunno, mate. Finals? Get fucked, of course not. Want some time to review rosters? Too bad, we’re kicking off Saturday. There’s no time to waste!1

It’s a story so important Travis Meyn was allowed to run with it, with a solo byline, who noted:

The NYC ran from 2008-17, introducing a host of current NRL stars like Daly Cherry-Evans, Ben Hunt and David Klemmer to first grade.
But it was also controversial given a lack of defensive focus, blowout scores, player welfare issues and the cost of administering a national junior league.

Given the NRL of the last few years has had a lack of defensive focus, blowout scores and player welfare issues, NRLQ should be more than appropriate preparation for the big time.

Around the grounds

Dolphins 44 defeated Bulldogs 8. The Bulldogs can't handle a little rain or a team from a real city. Because it happened in Sydney, Smith and Ennis couldn't shut up about the rain in between their usual asinine observations. If that was in Brisbane, someone would have to tell them there was a cyclone coming. Is Jake Averillo’s best use to just randomly rotate through back line positions? No signs of the Bulldogs league-leading defence. And:

Intermission

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Sorry, went to Noosa, so I didn't watch anything after the Dolphins game. I watched Andor and went to the Big Pineapple instead.

Upcoming Slate of Sludge

Titans versus Storm, Saturday 3pm, CBus

I think we all deserve a 38-36 barnburner. Unfortunately, the balance of probabilities are against us given that those two games are basically the only two victories of the Titans over the Storm in the last decade-plus. Even if the Storm rest a bunch of Origin players and the Titans don’t, Melbourne are still a much better, more motivated, better coached team than Gold Coast. If Munster and co back up, then the Titans are royally screwed. Cue a really boring capitulation on the way to 50. Tip: Storm

Jets versus Magpies, Saturday 3pm, Sydney somewhere probably

When was the last time any Western Suburbs team was worth paying attention to? This one is 3-8 and only above the Rabbitohs on the ladder, two franchises that should never have been allowed to live. The Jets aren’t exactly the best team in New South Wales either. Is this really what you want to spend $20/month on to watch? You could give that money to charity. Tip: Jets

Jets versus Clydesdales, Sunday 2.15pm, North Ipswich Reserve

Believe it or not, but in 2023, the Western Derby was, if not compelling viewing, then at least had the potential to be funny. And it was, as the Jets lost both games to the new team and finished the season winless. Ipswich are in much better shape in 2025 and Western haven’t really improved, so short of some sort of Sludgemas miracle, the Jets should romp home by 30 points and entertain no one in doing so. Tip: Jets

(Tips 15 / 34 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)

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