Titanic intellects
Billy Slater, yes, of course
Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
A second farewell, sweet prince
Queensland Rugby League today confirmed that Billy Slater will conclude his tenure as Head Coach of the Queensland Maroons and will not return for the 2027 State of Origin series.
Since taking the reins ahead of the 2022 series, Slater has played a pivotal role in continuing the proud legacy of the Maroons, leading the team with distinction, passion and an unwavering commitment to Queensland.
With Daley’s retirement, this truly is the end of an era. It was an epoch of Origin defined by the titanic intellects of Daley and Slater going head-to-head, wit-to-wit, in the battle of state-against-state and mate-against-mate. When facing down the generational talents and high quality of humanity like Jarome Luai, Zac Lomax and Spencer Leniu, three series wins from five attempts ain’t bad. Four would have been better.
Slater is almost certainly going to the Storm to succeed Craig Bellamy and we wish Slater, the Melbourne Storm, their private equity partners and racist director all the best. Based on what we saw in Origin over the last few years, I’m sure the finals streak can be resurrected. Trent Loiero will be thrilled that he has a job for life.
New South Wales have already appointed Matt King, a guy with no first grade coaching experience, to their top job. Queensland’s position has some candidates. Cameron Smith seems to be the obvious choice. One the greatest players of all-time, Smith has the aura, the resume, can string a sentence together (e.g. “go Dozer!”) and has been in the sheds. We’ll see if he is interested in forgoing that Nine money. Hmm, nope!
The alternatives are long time assistants, Matt Ballin and Ben Te’o, with maybe an outside chance of Thurston throwing his hat in the ring. The Maroon Observer, however, officially endorses Darius Boyd. As a player, he contested 28 Origins from 2008 to 2017. As coach, he has won back-to-back junior Origins, something that has never happened for Queensland before. He is old enough that once Cherry-Evans and Munster are out of the way, none of the playing group would have actually played with him and many won’t remember his, shall we say, terminal decline from 2018 through 2020.
If the QRL don’t appoint Boyd, and Slater’s successor is a disaster, then I can say I told you so. If Slater’s successor works out, then we can grind NSW into grist for the joke mill. It’s win-win.
Show your support for Darius Boyd for Maroons coach
Around the grounds
Took two years to get a Broncos double L and now we've got two in two weeks.
Roosters 12 defeated Panthers 6. The absolute worst thing you can do from this match is infer something important happened. It was good, it was even entertaining but that the Roosters got one over the Panthers that have been tormenting them for eons is unimportant. These Panthers are not the same as the all-conquering dynasty, as evidenced by their recent form (e.g. losses to the Broncos and Titans). Assessments of 2026 Penrith are held up on stats from the early season, when the sport was played under a more accommodating ruleset, and moron commentators are unable to update their priors and prefer to fall back on cliche. The Panthers are no longer exceptional and they threw so little at the Roosters that we are unable to conclude anything about the latter’s defence when it might be tested by a real team in coming weeks. When we look back on the season after the Sharks-Warriors grand final, this will be one of 200-ish regular season games. Sending Ash Klein to Singapore for a caning might be him getting off lightly.
Titans 26 defeated Dragons 10 (W). More respect is being put on the Titans’ name but they remain severely underrated. They dominated early and late, and let the Dragons hang around longer than they should have during the middle, but the result was not in doubt. They may not have the star power of the Broncos or Roosters but this is a very good football team.
Roosters 34 defeated Broncos 20 (W). Incompetent people make bad decisions but also tend to overcompensate, to protect their ego, by making decisions they think demonstrate their seriousness. I’m not sure why I thought of that as replays showed Brianna Clark making high contact with the ball, and not Jess Sergis’ whiplashed head, which was the justification for Clark being binned. This was a horrible decision among several penalties issued for crimes not comitted. If only there was some sort of video replay system that could overrule such mistakes! Perhaps those people were in the toilet. Oh well, it’s only women’s footy and the Broncos were on the receiving end, so no one will care that the last quarter of the biggest blockbuster of this season was a waste of time.
While the Roosters may have won anyway, and looked the more complete package than the individual brilliance of Upton, the over-celebrating showed by the Sydneysiders shows they are eminently gettable. They were very worried. Perhaps we will need a rematch with the Wraiders to put an end to the Wroosters? Georgia Bartlett at 6 seems to be a problem. That the options are Skyla Adams (Magpies) and Lila Parr (Falcons) and neither have been activated tells us something. Hopefully there isn’t a big match ahead this weekend. Jada Ferguson also has not received enough credit because her absence is palpable. Paitai is great and the first really good player to come out of the relocated QDub season.
Eels 32 defeated Cowboys 30 (M). When was the last time a Cowboys team was serious? Maybe 2022, but it was probably 2017. Anyway, more of the same from the North Queenslanders with a layer of Mitch Moses’ theatrics thrown on top after he got destroyed by Taumalolo. Even though they are extremely likely to make finals, there are some scenarios that make you wonder if the Cowboys are really going to get there. Let’s hear from the sober analysts:
Taumalolo has traveled down the shortside to where he’s needed. It’s an unfamiliar position, but he’s there out of desperation. Still, he’s able to hold his nerve, stay within the Cowboys shortside process, and absolutely crunch Mitchell Moses…
Paulo is already one of the best ball-playing props I’ve ever seen. Had he been playing in his prime today, he’d be among the best middles in the game. Despite playing out a relatively down year in an often-beaten side, he’s still able to produce the unthinkable.
Cutters 32 defeated Blackhawks 14. I’ll admit to not watching as much QCup as I would like this year. The results have mostly been a crapshoot but Townsville started racking up results recently after a soft start, so I assumed something had come good. Then I watched the second half of this game and the Cutters ran away with the Savannah Soiree. Mackay dominated in the red zone, found holes in the Blackhawks’ defence. Other than the evident speed and power of Dotoi, Townsville didn’t show much of anything after scoring over 200 points in the last four games. These teams have played 20 times since 2015 and the Cutters had won three (now four) and drawn two. This is a big result for a Mackay team chasing finals.
Warriors 40 defeated Broncos 6 (M). Cooper Cronk said, into a plugged-in microphone, “It’s up to Ezra Mam to put in a performance to replace Reece Walsh.” I think we’re done here. If you went to this game, you're an idiot beyond help. You know who you are. Let’s hear from the fans:
Amid the disruptions, the Warriors were clinical and physically dominant.
They made 1,663 metres to the Broncos’ 1,152 — a disparity more starkly emphasised by the average set distance difference (41.58 metres to 26.18).
Huddersfield 26 defeated Toulouse 10. Unusually, I had a quiet Sunday morning with no particular thing to catch up on or get ready for, so I turned on Super League. This game was nothing special. The Giants, dressed as Hull FC for some reason, were comfortable winners. Toulouse are short on players - former Falcon Luke Polselli was at fullback - and accordingly, the brief run of point scoring madness seems to have come to an end. Olympique may not have the wins of Catalans but they are better on several metrics. However, one of the metrics that the Dragons are better are crowds: there was bloody no one at this game. Disappointing but hopefully that means there’s somewhere for Toulouse to grow into.
Dolphins 46 defeated Tigers 16 (Q). Turns out if you can field Trai Fuller and Tevita Naufahu and deprive Easts of the ball, then you can score a lot of points very quickly against a team with little to play for and run away with the game. Jude Saldanha was one of the main beneficiaries. The Tigers only got on the board thanks to a length of the field intercept (Fuller overplayed his hand) and a screwball grubber that fooled everyone but it was far too late.
Knights 36 defeated Titans 26 (M).
Cowboys 30 defeated Sharks 18 (W). Once again, I am asking what is up with the Sharks? The pieces are there but they aren’t fitting together. The Cowboys lost this one quite badly on average set distance but won quite handily on the scoreboard, mostly thanks to Makenzie Weale punching a big hole in the game over the span of ten minutes that Cronulla clocked off. The binning of Taufua ended the Sharks’ chances of a comeback and I am sympathetic to this, because of the above and it looked a lot like a regulation tackle, but for a team whose rep is built on cold cocking the Broncos in the 2024 finals, they should be doing better than letting Rosie Kelly have fun out there.
The Offer, Part 1
The NRL officially wants to buy a stake in Super League:
NRL has discussed investing up to AU$60 million (£31.410 million) in Super League, making payments of AU$12 million a year for five years, in return for an interest in the European competition that would increase by 10% each year.
This would increase until the NRL had a 50% ownership share of Super League.
Following the advice of Homer Simpson, the English are going to reject the first offer. V’landys’ opening BOMBSHELL values the Super League at something like $120m, or the equivalent of a 100-key hotel on the periphery of a major city that V’landys will buy if the deal falls through.
Presumably the English think their rugby league competition, which is otherwise a supermassive black hole of good money crushed into a singularity of bad money that also happens to radiate rugby league, is worth more than that. I expect there will be some tedious back and forth before the number is agreed and then the deal will proceed.
There are a lot of things that remain unclear about this transaction. What does the NRL think it is buying? At present, there is no viable business model and no profits to be had without significantly more investment. The Super League IP is basically worthless. Besides a cash injection, what do the Super League clubs expect to gain? Do they expect to have to give up anything? Does PVL have a longer term plan in mind, or is he just focussed on the art of the deal?
V’landys has talked about implementing governance reform. Specifically, he wants an ARLC-style commission put in place because it will be notionally independent of the clubs and can make decisions in the best interests of the sport. Given how the actual ARLC operates, this seems optimistic. Given how the English clubs operate, this seems really optimistic.
It is not clear how a Commission would be structured, who would be on it (other than the obvious ex-Racing NSW cronies and former cops), who decides who gets to be on the Commission or how the NRL, the SL clubs and the Commission will all share power. What’s a few details among frenemies?
Intermission
Good sunset palette. More on the NRLQ grand final in the next club subletters.
Big night last night, mate? Hahaha, alright, let’s get on with it.
The Offer, part 2
I skipped a lot of blather to get to the point:
Under the plan, the 17 established clubs would own a 5.5 per cent stake in the 20th franchise, preparing it from the ground-up to a turn-key stage for the NRL to then on-sell to a private consortium…
The clubs would appoint an independent board to oversee the structure and build of the 20th franchise from the ground-up.
The clubs would then walk away after receiving an equal percentage return from the sale.
The clubs aren’t dictating where the 20th franchise should be located, they will simply support the NRL’s decision.
The pitch, tabled by NRL consultation committee members - including Rabbitohs CEO Blake Solly, Warriors CEO Cameron George, Eels CEO Jim Sarantinos, Broncos CEO Dave Donaghy, Dolphins CEO Terry Reader and Storm CEO Justin Rodski - is designed to also assist with the incredible man hours and stretched resources that the NRL has endured in setting up and delivering the Perth Bears.
I mean, does he dictate these things to you - “The forward-thinking and integrated plan proposes the NRL use the influence and power of all 17 clubs, along with their vast network of corporate relationships, business acumen and experience in operating rugby league clubs, to help deliver the game’s newest franchise” - or do you run it through a LLM to make it more sycophantic? Christ, it’s meant to be more dramatic. Talk to Badel if you need help.
To recap, the NRL own the Bears and the Chiefs. The former was supposed to become a member-owned non-profit at a point in the future determined by PVL. The latter, who knows? But the NRL (read: PVL, in his capacity as interim CEO, is now realising that Abdo was actually doing something for his money) has stretched itself too thinly by owning 10% of the league’s clubs, so now it’s going to get the other 90% to cover the costs of the 20th team. Isn't the NRL owned by the ARLC, whose voting members are the NRL clubs? Yes! The Habsburgs had a more straightforward org chart. This is the Julio-Claudian dynasty of equity structures.
I find it hard to believe this is real, mostly because I can’t believe anyone is going to buy “the incredible man hours and stretched resources that the NRL has endured in setting up and delivering the Perth Bears” as a basis for sympathy. No one asked you to do that, least of all Peter Cumins. All this so the clubs and the NRL can set up a massive conflict of interest? That the NRL will have to bail them out of when they don’t get $200 million to split 17 ways? Righto.
If nothing else, it speaks to the trouble the NRL is having in finding anyone with sufficient financial resources in New Zealand. The NRL are desperate to avoid losing the money on the backend of the TV deal, so I suppose that this means the 20th team is effectively a done deal and this “plan”, if that’s the word you want to use, is the backstop, last resort, option F if somehow, inexplicably, no one wants to set $100 million on fire setting up a second NZ NRL team with no central funding until 2035.
Stupider things have happened. It is also wryly amusing that when PVL was hacking and slashing his way through the NRL’s line items and handing cash over to the clubs, I pointed out that if the NRL wasn’t going to do that work, then the clubs would have to pick up the slack. I didn’t think it would turn out quite like this.
Upcoming slate
This is the week it really feels like the end is in sight. For those of you reading this on the toilet, it may be disappointing that soon we’ll be without footy for a while. For those of you producing what gets read on the toilet (i.e. me), this will be a welcome relief that soon you can do something else.
Rather than the usual format, let’s look at some of the more important games in the context of their respective finals races:
NRLM, three rounds to go, top eight play finals - the top eight is more or less set, with a two win gap between the 8th placed Cowboys and the 9th placed Bulldogs. While it is conceivable that the Dogs might overhaul that, the Cowboys do get to play the Tigers next week to wrap it up.
NRLW, three to go, top six - a well balanced week of footy with the main event being the women’s Classic between the Broncos and Titans. While Brisbane have demolished the Titans in their last two meetings, the Titans won two of the first three to create one of the pre-eminent women’s rivalry games. The Knights are currently a win outside the top six, so a win over a very competitive Tigers team would put the heat on the Raiders and Warriors.
QCup, two to go, top eight - the Falcons can wrap up the minor premiership with a win over the wooden spoon-bound Hunters. The Dolphins will almost certainly finish second but third (Capras) to eleventh (Magpies) is covered by a spread of six points. Even easy dubs for the Jets over the Devils and Cutters over the Clydesdales are important for keeping one’s head above water. The Mandate of Heaven already seems to be beyond the grasp of the Pride and Magpies.
QDub, two to go, top six - Easts take on Burleigh in the biggest match since Easts played Norths in the opener. Not only is this a replay of last year’s grand final, this is likely to be a preview for this year’s grand final. Barring some miraculous results, the only team outside the six with a shot is the Pride, who have a gimme against the Capras, possibly setting up a win and in against the Cutters.
NSW Cup - lol
Super League, four to go, top six - The gap between sixth (Leigh) and seventh (St Helens) is two wins. While that is surmountable, Saints have been in woeful form, hence the headline, “St Helens’ decline reaches breaking point with stench of failure lingering”. Yeesh, look forward to that in your future, Panthers fans. The results look pretty easy to pick this week, so the crunch will likely be next week when Leeds put them out of their misery.
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Stats pop
The NRLW has an advanced metrics page. The NRLW Range in particular makes for interesting reading, when compared to other competitions. Not sure if that’s going to shake out as the season progresses or if there’s a formula issue (I obviously don’t think this is the case but sometimes I am surprised) but interesting nonetheless.
I’m also working some minor re-formatting to make The Almanac easier to navigate.
Current metrics are up-to-date but advanced metrics will be later in the week.
Read this
What You Get Is What You See - Peter V’Landys is the cute hoor Super League needs. Normally, I would put these links in and expect you to click (very few do) but I did want to highlight this spectacular quote:
This journalist spoke to a leading figure on the other side of the table at the time and the metaphor they used was Homer Simpson spinning on the floor having defeated Mr Burns in a union dispute. They couldn’t believe how much the NRL had delayed, then caved.
Eye Test - Webster’s system allows the Warriors depth to triumph over adversity (refusing to engage with Titancos, thank you)
Campo - After living the hard life of a Gold Coast Titans legend, history beckons for Phil Sami
The Sportress - Six, AgaIn: Individual Brilliance
Rugby League Street - Why standing around at the footy has never been better
Notes
Maroon Observer QCup Tipping Sickoship is closing in on the finish. Don’t forget your last couple of rounds of tipping. Also remind me to look up what I said the prizes were going to be.
Dolphins Oval was very busy on Sunday. The juniors had taken over the adjacent field and looked to have as good a turnout, if not better, than the Queensland Cup game inside the stadium. One thing I did notice was the steady trickle of people in during the game, as the 4pm kickoff in the NRLQ final approached. Certainly more Cowboys and Dolphins (distinct from the Redcliffe Dolphins) merchandise made its way into the stands. This experience is causing me to reconsider that the NRLQ is having no cut through - plainly, it is because people are at the games - and that there is a very large proportion of NRL Dolphins fans that give absolutely no shits about the Redcliffe Dolphins. Not sure what it means, other than Queenslanders are more likely to engage in lower grades via their NRL club than any other route, but it adds to my growing sense that QCup’s in a bit of a funny place right now.
As a reminder: the Chiefs’ coach is a rookie, their GM is an ex-gossipmonger, the players are going to be the wrong side of 30, the personalities are, at best, an acquired taste and the sheer weight of culture shock and having to relive the pandemic in a resort is going to drop like an anvil on the group. None of them really understand what they are in for. It is by no means a slam dunk that they are going to slay all before them.
Ironically, some fans are greatly overestimating the gravity of public opinion turning on the Chiefs experiement. Literally, no one who matters gives a toss. It’s here, it’s going to be a part of the fabric of the NRL and, as grubby as it all is, that grubbiness is well within the NRL’s idiom. You don’t have to like it - I’m looking forward to the NRL adding an exotic dimension, personally - but you should get used to it.
Finally, there’s a reason none of the clubs are complaining publicly and are, in fact, allowing players to speak to the Chiefs early. It’s because they have their snouts in the trough too. Each club gets $4 million to wave through the Chiefs and, because that money is paid out in installments, you can’t complain if you want to receive it all. If you were looking for someone to blame, the backyard would be a good place to start!
Track record of New Zealand NRL bid team boss raises questions. Someone finally googled what Andrew Chalmers had been up to in his previous business and at Bradford.
Proposed North Queensland Cowboys leagues club in Logan branded a ‘pokie palace’. Enjoying the incongruity of the Cowboys in Holmview.
Plans for 30-storey tower loom large over Sunshine Coast. “But a proposal for a 30-storey high-rise to transform the Maroochydore skyline has triggered some residents' fears that the region could become another Gold Coast.” Lol, it’s going to happen whether you have a light rail or not you pack of numpty nimbys. Remember to vote LNP, they’ll be very sympathetic to your arguments. Now to see which party recently re-legalised political donations from property developers.
Speaking of competitions with an uncertain place in the world of rugby league, RFL plan for Championship revamp. The RFL had the right idea but should’ve pushed London up and had a plan for bringing in the necessary regulations to keep the clubs part-time and affordable sooner.
Random thought while watching the Toulouse game: English league fans and administrators often criticise Catalans for taking up a SL spot while not bringing in any TV revenue, as if selling TV revenue shouldn’t be the purview of the league (as it is in every other sport!), and point to a lack of progress for the French national team. It doesn’t seem anyone has considered that French rugby league would have ceased to exist without Catalans in Super League. The national team may not have improved, but they have also not disappeared.
For fans of the bottom nine, if you need some time filling recommendations, here’s what I’m 📖 Reading: Medieval Europe (that’s going to take a couple of weeks) / 📺 Watching: Happy Gilmore 2 (enh) / 🎧 Listening: Milf History Month / 🍸 Drinking: Alamos Malbec 2024
The Offer, part 3
Back in 2008, the major manufacturers in F1 threatened to establish a breakaway championship during a dispute with Formula One Management (i.e. Bernie Ecclestone). This news hit right at a point in my life where I could spend a lot of time reading forum posts from equally uninformed fans while having no particular life experience of my own to separate wheat from chaff.
I remember that F1 journalist Joe Saward repeatedly warned that this was just a dramatic negotiating tactic and it was. The F1 teams got more money out of Bernie and the breakaway threat was nullifed. I, however, was disappointed because I had let my imagination get the better of me. This was going to fix all of our “problems” with F1: we were going to have a “true” World Championship, dump the Tilkedromes, get rid of driver’s aids and get back H-pattern transmissions (????). The past is a foreign country and I don’t remember really what I expected or why, but most of the fantasies did end up coming to pass once F1 was sold to Liberty.
Anyway, I try not to fall for the same trick twice. When similar threats have been made in other sports I follow, I roll my eyes and wait for any sign of follow-through. Still, there’s room for a little imagining as long as we understand that what follows is baseless speculation. This is a safe space down here past the notes and before the nickelware. What exciting things would we really want to see out of a NRL-owned Super League?
In the short term, some stability would be good. Get rid of the covid debts, sort out the rules so they at least match the NRL’s - even as problematic as we all know this is - get a cap on costs, find some new revenue streams, get a good broadcast deal and keep the clubs going.
In the medium term, a harmonisation of financial regulations and improving commercial conditions with the NRL would allow the European teams to be competitive, regularly and not just in one-off WCCs, with their Pacific counterparts and provide a better on-field product. A deeper labour market, attracting more and better athletes with the money, is the single biggest thing we could get out of cross-league pollination.
In the long term, a single NRL championship might not be logisitically possible but I would settle for a Club World Cup or Champion’s League format to bring together the best from the northern and southern hemispheres. We’ll know we’ve made it when Toulouse Olympique take on the PNG Chiefs in a Rugby Champion’s Cup final.
Then, expansion?
Nickelware
With three weeks to go, so a maximum of six possible wins available, the Roosters are four clear of the Warriors and so almost certainly going to claim their second Combined Minor Premiership to go with 2024.
Note the Titans women’s team is likely to out-win their male counterparts. A similar thing may happen at the Broncos.
After leading most of the year off the back of very good combined junior performances, Wynnum have been overhauled by the stronger senior performances of the Burleigh Bears. With only two weeks left, and teams in fourth in the men’s comp and first in the women’s, the Gold Coast side are in the box seat. The Bears could be on pace to break their record 38 wins from last year.
The pinkos at DPR Dolphins are one-tenth of a winning percentage ahead of the most pious Holy Broncos Empire. However, the Magpies have a intra-confed game next week and a bye in the final round, which means they have nothing further to contribute. The two strongest Broncos teams have three games to catch their red counterparts.