Unbridled smugness
Never underestimate NSW's capacity to wet their pants
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Apologies
I had started drafting a critique of the selection when it was first announced, with unflattering comparisons to Moses Mbye’s selection in 2019, but then Nick Campton published his piece about Shibasaki last week and I held fire. As the week progressed, I began to wonder if this might not just work out after all. The story might be simply too powerful to contain. Layering on the emotions around Cameron Munster’s father’s sudden death probably put the team over the top; not that we would want to implement that strategy every series.
Sure enough, within minutes of kick-off, I thought it was pretty clear that the Maroons could win. The Blues began with Origin’s trademark intensity but that intensity is only so good for so long and it evaporated after the penalty goal, much earlier than usual. Once it became clear that not only were Queensland not going to be pushed around but instead were going to play as close to a perfect game of football as humanly possible, New South Wales looked bereft of answers to the questions posed of their oh-so-lauded players.
As the game wore on, the cluelessness morphed into a predictable pants wetting as Panthers, current and former, struggled to work out how to win with a rapidly fatiguing forward pack tackling themselves out of the game, a centre pairing completely dominated in effectiveness by Gehamat Shibasaki and Robert Toia and Queensland’s ruck control and line speed in defence. Tom Dearden making it a personal mission to cover Brian To’o was just icing on the cake.
Firstly, an apology to Billy Slater. Your selections were baffling and the justifications unclear and you lost a battle of wits with Aaron Woods but you’ve won three series from four starts and if you can maintain a 75% strike rate, then you can have the job for as long as you like. Usually, bad process outs but sometimes the alternative is just so bad, it doesn’t matter.
Slater’s win puts him behind only Meninga (9), Bennett (5.5) and Beetson (4) of Queensland coaches since 1982. Slater has already drawn level with Fittler, the second most successful coach in NSW history (Gould is first, 6 series).
Secondly, an apology to Gehamat Shibasaki, both for the not very nice things I said about him (now deleted) in years past and for doubting that he would be able to stand up long enough to write two (now deleted) paragraphs.
Some personal highlights:
The absolute precision played by the entire Maroons team. Didn’t overplay their hands (bar Toia’s error) but took the real opportunities. Made their tackles, ran the ball, finished their sets, did all the work. Won the game. Real satisfaction for everyone’s internal boomer.
Tabuai-Fidow making an actual, honest to God, try saver. Astonishing.
Mitchell and To’o attempting to muscle up and drive Toia into touch only to concede a try might be the funniest moment in Origin history.
Not noticing that Jeremiah Nanai didn’t get on the field until the last five minutes. I’d been so wrapped up with Shibasaki’s selection that I’d also forgotten Kurt Capewell was in the team.
Luai’s return to his free form jazz style of play (you have to look at the points he doesn’t score), as well as the increasingly loud questioning of Cleary’s bona fides at this level.
Spencer Leniu riding his quote-unquote hardman reputation to yet another ineffectual performance, along with his colleagues - haha, Liam Martin, you loser - in the pack. I pray NSW keep selecting him because it’s like taking a jersey out of the rotation.
As it was at the end of 2022, the New South Wales men’s Origin team is in complete disarray. The hiring of Laurie Daley was a horrible idea (never mind the four year contract) but the talent advantage was surely so great that not even Daley could screw this up with whatever he’s telling these guys.
It’s unclear if he can really return to the position for 2026 but then, if not him, then whomst? Daley only got the job because the chalice is so poisoned, there was no one else around to drink from it.
Long may it last.
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Around the grounds
Eels 18 defeated Sharks 16 (W). Told ya. This is not round 1 weirdness, definitely not. The Sharks are definitely frauds and the Eels may be premiership contenders and both of those things can obviously be true based on a two point win.
Broncos 22 defeated Bulldogs 18 (M). When you’re wrong 80% of the time, you’re wrong 80% of the time. My deep lingering suspicion that the Bulldogs are good, but still aren’t much chop, is an allegation Canterbury don't seem capable of beating. Brisbane pulled a bunch of players and showed enough perseverance in the last 20 minutes to overhaul a frankly pathetic 18 point margin. Any other team in the league puts that game well out of reach in the first half. Worse, the Bulldogs have to be practically invited to score before falling over. Have not and do not understand the obsession with Galvin. Very funny nonetheless. 5 stars.
Broncos 28 defeated Tigers 4 (W). If this is the rusty round 1 Broncos, we’re in for a treat this year. Sure, they won’t play the Tigers every week. Brisbane should have won by a pile more points whereas the Tigers were literally pointed to the spot to score by Tamika Upton in a fit of good sportsmanship. Game looked good at a well-attended Langlands. Can’t believe the Tigers didn’t release a statement.
Bears 22 defeated Devils 18 (M). If you’d told me that the Devils had way more ball, better completions and somewhat more metres, I wouldn’t have believed you. Burleigh looked far stronger through the middle. Granted, both teams scored the same number of tries (even if one of those was in the dying seconds of the game for the losing side) so you could write it off as a weird one-off that happens when the conversions don’t go right. It did seem that the Devils’ attacking flux seemed lacking in ideas, rather than being a hydra of pain. After three losses in a row, maybe you blame this one on weirdness and last week on the rain and the week before on the Blackhawks being good but taken together, are the Devils in #crisis? Probably not. They’ve been here before and still been fine in this decade. Let’s keep an eye on giant Jordan Makirere.
Cowboys 20 defeated Titans 6 (W). The Titans looked as flat as a tack throughout this entire game. The Cowboys looked fantastic. Union girl can ball, it turns out. I was hoping this was the year the NRLW had advanced to the point that imports from the bad code wouldn’t be able to hack it. The switch for Whitfeld to fullback and Goldthorp to wing seems to have paid dividends for both. The upside for Gold Coast is that they look fixable and have plenty of time to do it, even if I am starting to worry that Karyn Murphy doesn’t have It.
Storm 26 defeated Cowboys 20. To call this the Mebourne Falcon-Tiger-Bears would be insulting to the respective feeder organisations, as this Storm team was woefully constructed. The Cowboys kept it close but managed to find a way to lose nonetheless. Let’s hear from the fans:
Ah Scott Drinkwater. He delivers both rare gems and pyrite in equal measure. In the first half his passing game led to both Cowboys tries. His defensive efforts a part of Melbourne’s two tries. He’s an enigma.
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today.Pride 42 defeated Jets 10 (W). If you wanted to know what a half dozen fringe Cowboys and some of the best the QDub has to offer looked like when stacked against an entirely amateur Jets team, the score line is entirely reflective. That the Jets didn’t score until late in the game probably goes without saying. Malupo scoring a 108 metre try is a cherry on top. If we are to see this many Cowboys players in Cairns, then what we saw in round 1 with zero Cowboys players might not be reflective of what Northern is going to deliver in 2025. Nadia Windleborn, formerly of the Bears, is now at the Pride, which suggests the incumbent U19 Maroons hooker is being slated to play understudy for Emma Manzelmann at some point.
Jets 34 defeated Capras 12 (M). This was not a particularly enticing game, with the main prospect being whether Morea Morea would offer anything (not really, needs more ball in space if we’re going to see that running game and he’s probably not getting that from the Capras). Having exhausted any of my personal early season sympathy for them, Ipswich is absolutely thrumming with Huge Loser Energy when a bunch of overexcited Jets got agressive with the goat farmers. What crawled up Lofi Khan-Pereira’s ass is known only to him but it always seems to be fringe Titans players that take it out on the butchers in Cup. Perhaps not being able to crack the worst NRL team is a source of frustration??? The Jets are not going to be able to contend until they get hold of the ball.
Titans heat check
They say no one cares about the Titans, so here’s a quick summary of where this franchise is headed:
They’re not only coming dead last in the NRLM, Gold Coast are two wins adrift of any other team bar the Eels. The Titans haven’t had a winning season in 15 years (and still have more finals appearances than the Tigers in that time).
The women’s side haven’t won a game since August 2024 and will probably go very close to a full year before that gets snapped. This is a very rude fall from grace since the 2023 grand final.
The NRLQ team, made up of their alleged best under 20s, is 0-4 and running last. With a -70 points difference, it is unlikely they will move from there with two rounds to play.
The Titans’ QCup affiliates, as a collective, are second last and only better than the Cowboys’ by one win and one loss. This is, somehow, an improvement over last season, as the Ipswich Jets are no longer historically bad.
The Titans’ notional women’s feeder, Tweed Seagulls, is running second last with only one win from four starts. Despite having featured Tarryn Aiken and Jaime Chapman at times, the Seagulls have seven (7) total wins over four and a bit seasons of QDub.
The Titans’ main strength is furnishing other teams with talents they’ve been unable to develop and it must be heartwarming for South Coasters to see Nerang’s Reece Walsh and Tweed’s Tarryn Aiken and Currumbin’s Xavier Coates succeed on the biggest stages.
Do you remember when they said they wanted two men’s and two women’s premierships by 2030? That’s looking unlikely. Whether the announcement that the Titans’ ownership has been streamlined down to just the Frizelles1 helps or hinders these goals, who can say?
“The Frizelle’s have been looking to get control of the club in its entirety and blow the whole thing up and start again.” Webster said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if they changed the jumper and made serious change across the whole organisation. They will throw the bank at a big name coach to get them there.”
I suspect it will remain business as usual.
In the meantime, Hasler seems to be on his way out, although we wait with bated breath for the actual presser to count the stink lines coming off the press release. That young, up and coming Billy Slater looks promising???
Intermission
I wanted Hammer kicking Latrell in the nuts but thanks to various DRM restrictions and the utter dogshitedness of trying to watch any video on NRL dot com, we’ll have to settle for a family of ducks scurrying away.
Hotseat
Coaching isn’t like regular jobs. The performance of the coach is not entirely within their control, despite most of them being absolute freaks about it. The coach has to work with a roster that may or may not be of their construction, deal with injury luck and steer the personalities of a couple dozen people in the direction of success. Whether they get there or not is largely out of their hands and has more chance in it than most would admit. Some parallels with parenting are probably appropriate here.
To compensate for this, the club stakes a sum of guaranteed money on the appointment, rather than paying a salary over the duration. If you think about it this way, it explains why coaches are regularly getting extended years in advance of their contract expiry, sometimes irrespective of their on-field results or market demand for their services.
Coaches then become victims of their own myth-making. To justify the high six, low seven figure salaries lump sums, they have to project total control and take all responsibility, which boils down to eating a shit sandwich on national TV every time things go wrong. Tommy Carcetti can relate.
We’re all familiar with the lame deflections from embattled coaches. No one can admit that this isn’t an assembly line and that the brain geniuses at the helm suffer at the whims of fate. Otherwise, the gig would be up.
To this end, I have very little sympathy for coaches. This is the job. You’re more than welcome to stand aside and become a near-anonymous assistant and make a decent living. Yet they almost never do.
All of this goes some way to explaining why hiring coaches is such a crapshoot and why predicting the next coach up is practically impossible. The resume has only the lightest correlation to results at the highest level. The reasons for that must be as myriad as the individual situations and the effectiveness of their agents.
Trying to parse your way through who’s good and who’s bad is an interesting intellectual exercise though and possibly a way for me to deal with my own latent professional frustrations.
I thought I had set all this up somewhere pre-season but turns out I just wrote something in the Boom Rookies Discord, so replicating for the record:
In February, I set the line at this season’s - technically, this calendar year’s - firings at 2.5 and took the over. In previous years, I set the line at 4.5 in 2022 and got 4 and then 1.5 for 2024 and got 4 again.
The milestone dates for coach firings are something like during or shortly after Magic Round if its a disaster, in the post-Origin phase if its bad, and post-season if its an edge case and the board are feeling themselves. We’re now at round 19 and no one has had their career guillotined yet, which is interesting in its own right. There is reportage this week that Hasler has agreed to retire at the end of the year from the Titans but I won’t believe that until the Titans confirm it.
The field for potential firings is narrowing as ladder positions firm up and clubs decide what they can live with. The chaos of this season’s results have provided numerous release valves for various coaches under pressure, most clubs not going on the skid for more than four games at a time.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Des Hasler
🔥🔥🔥🔥 Anthony Seibold
🔥🔥🔥🔥 Todd Payten
🔥🔥🔥 Adam O’Brien
🔥🔥🔥 Benji Marshall
🔥 Craig Fitzgibbon
I think we’re still good for the overs with enough leftover baggage to set up 2026’s coaching disasters nicely.
Upcoming Slate
This edition is already long enough so we’ll go with some quick notes:
Marine Mayhem is back and will be worth watching to see if the Sharks continue the theme of the other sky blue team this week and/or if the Dolphins’ wheels have come off. Assuming Hammer doesn’t back up, Jake Averillo at fullback would be eyes emoji.
Do not watch the Broncos and Titans play out the Oldest Derby. We were a handful of Elo ratings points from that being officially branded unwatchable.
Devils-Jets is probably the most compelling QCup match this week, which is also the feature game. If the Devils arrest the slide, that puts them in a good stead and puts a cap on Ipswich’s expectations.
The Pride might smash the Bears in the QDub, otherwise expecting those games to be pretty chalky.
The Warriors’ NSW Cup game kicks off at 9.40am Australian Eastern Standard Time.
(Tips 24 / 50 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Read this
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Notes
Just repeating a note buried in last week’s Pony Picayune for complete transparency: “I am on an absolute heater of total dog shit takes this season. Please, for your own safety, bear this in mind.”
Also, I think I said behind the paywall that Billy Walters deserved his jersey, so just restating that for the record. It took 100 games but we got there. Now to focus that ire on Cory Paix and maybe Ben Hunt.
While we’re on doing better, a reader pointed out that Suncorp is operated by the O’Brien Group, and not Spotless. This transition occurred nearly a decade ago. I have never heard of them but the more you know. No other rugby league themed newsletter is going into the minutiae of stadia facilities management contracts - that’s The Maroon Observer Guarantee.
Kayo re-thinks the Mobile experience with social media style highlights in an all-new Kayo App. This is far too positive to be taken with anything bar a pinch of salt. I groaned and then closed the tab at the description of the Instagram Stories/Facebook Reels/Tiktokification highlights packages. Not withstanding that highlights packages on Kayo are pretty rudimentary at the best of times, because they are already assembled by computers, not everything has to be a Skinner box, you assholes.
I admit the Ezra Mam booing stuff was bothering me. It shows a hypocrisy on the fans’ part, most of whom do not have the facts of what happened because that would requiring reading an actual article, and who support clubs with worse crimes on the docket. Mam’s not even the worst driving offence associated with the Broncos in the last 12 months. Then I saw the headline Australia’s next ‘Adam Goodes’ saga’ is already happening and cackled. While I think there is a degree of racism in Mam’s treatment by opposing fans, let’s stop being ridiculous. His case is nothing like Goodes’. Please be more serious, Mr Tallis. If that’s the opposing side then boo away, friends, it only makes him stronger.
Canterbury hooker Reed Mahoney to join Cowboys on long-term deal. I had more on this in the Bovine Bulletin, which amounted to ‘given the options available, decent get for the Cowboys.’
New funding agreement, huge milestone as leaked docs blow open Games plan. The Vic Park Stadium is going over the top of York’s Hollow and while this is a significant site for the Indigenous people, it is currently a nest of ibises. There is a new train station to go in as well, which makes good sense.
This week in PNG: Sorcery: A national shame must end. SARV is “Sorcery Accusation Related Violence”, fyi, which sounds funny until you do even the smallest amount of reading about it.
Nickelware
Unearthed still more issues with these data. It’s a copy paste into a spreadsheet. How hard can it be? It should be right now. For realises this time.
I also replaced the Espoir and Junior columns with a combined Youth column.
Perhaps the only interesting thing in this announcement is the claim that the Titans’ commercial position is good enough now, thanks to the boom and increased central funding one presumes, that this transaction can take place at all. Compare to 2017 when the team was on the financial brink and bailed out by the NRL.