Why average coaches get extensions

RFK Jr watched the soccer, sort of

Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.

Hotseat: Waiting for Toddo no longer

For some reason, The Maroon Observer almost never leads off with Cowboys news but uh, sure, I guess:

The North Queensland Toyota Cowboys have agreed to a two-year contract extension with NRL Head Coach Todd Payten, running through the end of the 2028 season.

Currently in his sixth season as Cowboys Head Coach, Payten’s extension will see him surpass Paul Green as the longest-tenured coach in club history.

I don’t think we’ve seen enough to justify this. I don’t think anyone does. The news conspicuously comes just as I rang the bell at the top of the market, so at least I’m not alone in my overrating the season to date, but you’d think someone on the Russian nesting dolls of boards at the Cowboys would be a bit more switched on.

I also think its possible to overreact. The way we look at coach contracts should be different to the way we look at player contracts. A two year extension, this close to the expiration of his current contract, is the minimum faith the Cowboys could show in Payten. Every coach has to have time on the clock, otherwise they become lame ducks. If the club doesn’t have the belief to extend the contract, or forces a coach to work year-to-year, then the players aren’t stupid enough to miss the message from the front office.

As a result, we see mediocre coaches get extensions because the club wants it to work for a little while longer as the board prevaricates - because you never know when a donkey becomes a thoroughbred! - but they are not necessarily guaranteeing the full term of the contract will be seen out.

Very, very few coaches go out on their own terms. We all understand that while the coach is ultimately responsible for the results, and it is famously a results-based business, the coach is not really responsible for the results. The players are. The coach has some control over the roster and how tahey play but it is far from total control.

To hedge the fact that coaching is a messy, chaotic business, in other fields of footballology, coaches get guaranteed money. This unimpeachable logic often results in wealthy backers and state governments paying out tens of millions of dollars to get rid of deadwood coaches they extended just a few years earlier, similar to failed CEOs getting golden parachutes so they feel free to “take risks”. This seems to work really well for society as a whole, so it is not surprising to see it come to rugby league by stealth.

Payten will probably continue to bob along average and may well make it to 2028, where he will be due another good season. Perhaps that is the best the Cowboys can do and they aren’t in a position to take a big swing like the Sharks did dumping John Morris for Craig Fitzgibbon, a change that has more or less worked out.

If the Cowboys flop for the rest of this year, and have a poor start next year, the Cowboys football board will fire Payten at least a year early. Few will remember this extension if that happens, and it seems optimistic to promise he will surpass Paul Green (is that a good thing?), but in that event, Payten will paid some fraction (possibly close to one) of his salary for the years he won’t be coaching.

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What is going on out there?

Trying to work out what the audience - the royal you - likes and doesn’t like is a guessing game. Substack’s analytics are not great, way too detailed in some areas and terrible for analysis in the aggregate. Whereas I grew up on an internet that prized views alone, and later followers, subscriptions and likes are also important these days. In deciding what to write, I follow my own interests and cross my fingers. The most viewed post of the year so far was about Origin stats and received one like. Go figure.

My most recent post got (relatively speaking to other posts) a lot of likes, a good number of views but strictly speaking cost me two subscribers.

Re: Accused War Criminal

I have been joking that these were chuds that unsubscribed but I think its more likely that they were email addresses no longer in use or Substack scrubbing spam subscribers, which I guess is a thing. It is entirely possible two people realised they were in the wrong place politically and decided they simply could not tolerate my presence in their inbox. If you’d like to correct their imbalance, the button is right here:

Everyone is welcome, even those that disagree with me (provided you never talk to me).

In the meantime, if you’re on Meta’s premier social network for gas leak enthusiasts that seems to compromise entirely of brands talking to each other in front of half a billion people (really? I am expected to believe that?), consider chucking us a follow. You can join League Eye Test as a Context Collapsed Rooner and… that’s it. Just him.

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Around the grounds

United States 2 defeated Australia 0. I remembered during this game that I need massive stakes to take an interest in soccer. The prize was going to be how good the posts would be if the Yanks lost. Alas. Americans can't post (about international sport, in English).

Paraguay 1 defeated Turkiye 0. Turkey stinks. Paraguay scored in less than 90 seconds, were a man down for half the game and still won. A very unfortunate diminishment of Australia’s victory.

Dolphins 36 defeated Tigers 22. Despite a set of Dolphins fans sitting next to the Fox mics, the commentators spent the entire game talking about the Tigers as if they were the protagonists and not an annoying speedbump. Redcliffe took care of business with a sub-par performance, possibly related to the missing personnel and having to play Brad Schneider, possibly related to having to play the Tigers. As with the Broncos in 2023, people will focus on the offensive punch but the real success is in having a resilient goal line defence. Jarome Luai sucks.

Titans 19 defeated Panthers 18. Hahahahahahahaha… hahahahhahahahaha… haaaaah. This is the Titans’ first win over the Panthers since 2019 and only their eighth ever. Not being a complete derelict, I don’t keep an up-to-date list of great Titans wins but this is not only their win of the year - the win over the Broncos is devaluing rapidly - but possibly of this decade. Massive wins over the Warriors, by 60 in 2024 and by 44 in 2021, would also be worthy contenders. The Titans didn’t play exceptionally well but took the chances given and hung tough. Cleary or otherwise, most teams down 12 to the Panthers would fold and the Titans did not. It is the first tangible proof of concept for the Hannay system with Zane Harrison as 7 and suggests that we might, this time for realsies, see an improvement in this team next season (do not confuse improvement with good). In this season, one more win and the Titans would pull ahead of the Broncos.

Warriors 38 defeated Cowboys 20. The Cowboys weren’t too far off the pace, going into the sheds down 14-10, a reasonable reflection of 30 of the half’s 40 minutes. Once Taumalolo got binned at 52’, an unfortunate accident but the punishment was a decent approximation of the prevailing philosophy at NRL HQ, North Queensland were never in the contest thereafter. The Warriors are, somehow, too slick and fast for the Cowboys, with Te Maire Martin having a career game. This result pegs the Cowboys appropriately: not able to compete with the top teams but not embarrassed either. The wheels could still come off but I’m looking for them in the bottom end of the eight.

Statewide split screening. Taylor Fenton of the Pride kicked herself a chip and chase in a see sawing contest that the Falcons eventually came out on top. Ipswich blew Tweed off the park in the women’s comp, with Moanekah Va’ai having a big hand in the Jets’ success, before, bafflingly, the men did the same to the Dolphins. Redcliffe scored all of their points in the last 15 minutes after the Jets got a 24 point lead, Brent Woolf binned and decided to cruise for the remaining hour or so. The Blackhawks shut out the league leading Falcons: I watched the game and still don’t really understand what happened. The possession share was even but Townsville outgained Sunshine Coast by 500 metres, so let’s keep an eye on the health of the Falcons’ pack for the rest of this season, and maybe the Blackhawks’ offence has finally arrived. The Devils have refound some form, comfortably taking care of the boring Wynnum Manly, and moving to 3-8-1. Won’t be enough for finals but will keep them above the Clydesdales and Hunters.

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Intermission

You're supposed to drop to a knee there, Kodi.

And because I couldn't think of anywhere else to put it, here's the median American fan at the World Cup:

Is he… alive?

Technically, yes.

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Upcoming slate

There’s a full slate of 34 games across the competitions and fewer than half are rated more than two stars of watchability and none get a full five stars. Worth noting the star rating system is designed to put about 20% of games at four or higher.

Dolphins vs Warriors, NRLM, Saturday 3pm, Suncorp

Proof that TV execs have no idea about rugby league is that this game is in the second least watched slot of the weekend. This brief respite from travel through the swamp that is the Origin-effected draw should be in prime time. I think, broadly, that the Warriors remain fraudulent and do not have the defensive chops that are required now that the set restart-a-thon has been eased off by the powers that be. The Dolphins can hold a line and have a better offence. Here is the Phins In: Tabuai-Fidow, Katoa, Plath, Cobbo and Flegler. Righto.

Tigers vs Jets, QDub, Saturday 2.30pm, Langlands

It is a bit early in the season to call this a heavyweight bout, not least because the Jets have rescheduled their round 2 game against Wynnum, but Ipswich have picked up where they left off last season, putting on big scores against the Pride and the Cutters. The Tigers lost a classic round 1 encounter against the Devils, but have also beaten the Cutters and the Falcons. Keen to see Va’ai and Marshall got head to head, as well as Wulf and Orchard.

Justice vs Nazis, WWII, 1945, Nuremberg

I watched Nuremberg (2025) on the flight home from England earlier in the year, which was fine but not great. Thanks to the excellent Unclear and Present Danger podcast, I found out there was an earlier TV miniseries from 2000 that has better writing (to a point), pacing and more Nazi hangings. The only drawback is that Russell Crowe’s Göring is superior to Brian Cox’s, but only just.

You gotta give the Broncos and Titans fans something to do because watching a vivisection from the Roosters and a boring bludgeoning from the Bulldogs, respectively, isn’t a way to spend your weekend.

Having said that, if I’ve seemed a bit maudlin lately, watching the few minutes of footage from concentration camps spliced into each movie¹ is not a recipe to improve one’s mood, especially given the current political milieu. Anyway, have fun.

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Welcome Shane to the Roon Gang

Luckily, Shane does not have any obvious personal details that lend would itself to an awful nickname. Thank you for your support of The Maroon Observer group.

You, too, may want to consider an upgrade to a paid subscription. Paid subscribers get full access to the Pony Pic, Bov Bull and Phin Rev, The Almanac and The Dataset™, and commenting privileges. Your financial support keeps the lights on at The Maroon Observer.

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Stats pop

The Dolphins joined the Bulldogs and the pre-merger Dragons in having perfect records at Campbelltown Stadium in the NRL era. Canterbury last lost there in 1995. The Broncos haven’t lost at Campbelltown since 1992 but also drew with the Tigers in 2000, so haven’t batted 1.000.

This begs the question: do the Tigers have the worst record at their home ground, Campbelltown? The answer, to no one’s surprise, is yes.

Yes, you may say, but the Tigers are generally very bad. For purposes of comparison, the Titans have won 44.7% of their games played on the Gold Coast (210 games) and Wests Tigers - the very same team - have won an astonishing 57.2% of NRL games at Leichhardt Oval (104). The post-merger Tigers are at 39.3%, which is an improvement over the Magpies at 25%.

Does it mean anything? Probably not, sometimes there are weird splits in statistics, but it should make for an interesting couple of years for the Tigers while the NSW government redevelops Leichhardt Oval.

Nickelware

Read this

• Eye Test - How HIAs are impacting NRL clubs in 2026

• What You Get Is What You See - The FIFA World Cup proves rugby league was ahead of the curve

• The Sportress - Six, again: Normal?

• Storm Machine - Game 756 – S29E16 Review

Notes

• Raising money for good causes is not within my skillset. I’ve tried and I just don’t have the knack for it to meet my own, apparently lofty, standards. To make up for this, I am a reliable donator of money. If I see people I barely know raising money by doing something difficult/humiliating, I will usually sling them a bank note. To that end, two subscribers - Luke (aka ”Bones”) and Bron - are raising money via the City 2 Surf. If you have a few bucks and feel like doing a good deed before EOFY, consider sending it their way.

• Following the Christchurch game, I started writing a chunk about expansion but think I’m going to do it as a standalone feature.

• Highest ever Origin audience for Origin II

• NRL to grant Perth Bears $500k salary cap concessions in landmark third-party arrangement. Helps to be owned by the NRL, I suppose. Normally, this would be a scandal but not in this decade. Watching rugby league authorities to try manage labour market is like watching the federal government manage the property market. What if we just added more fuel to the fire?

• Rugby club [Keighley] owners quit over homophobic abuse. At some point, the fans of lower league clubs will stop chasing away people trying to keep their clubs afloat. It will probably be when those clubs disappear.

• Metro buses revealed as alternative to axed stage 4 light rail. Premier David Crisafulli said the “generational infrastructure” was reflecting the feedback from those on the southern Gold Coast. “We are delivering infrastructure for a growing state to protect the lifestyle of the people already here,” he said. We are building generational infrastructure by not building infrastructure that might offend the richie rich types at the southern end of the Gold Coast.

• More Morrin

• Hunt Signs On Through 2027. DEI includes senior citizens apparently.

• Scroll back up to those links and donate some money. I am making a list.

1. Each movie used different parts of the horrifying footage. The original film produced by the US army shown during the trials was one hour long.