He’s Origin genius
He’s Origin genius
Slater burned through that goodwill real quick, BMD finals, drugs, James Hardie
New post
In case there was some confusion, this is not another plea for you to complete a survey but rather I finally analysed and published the results from the 2024 NRL Rivalry Survey last week. Nearly 200 responses with a few little surprises.
Everyone has a plan for a small, mobile pack until they get hit in the face
Michael Maguire is the new Blues coach, taking over from Brad Fittler. Fittler rode a clear talent advantage to back-to-back series wins in 2018 and 2019, got absolutely cleaned up by the master in 2020 and then floated on the six again wave to victory in 2021. Once that tide ebbed and Queensland closed the talent gap, Fittler didn’t have a lot of answers and he is now no longer Blues coach. Somehow he is the second best to ever do it for that state.
Aping Fittler’s injection of fresh blood for the 2018 series, Maguire has made a series of extremely questionable selection decisions to refresh the Blues lineup for 2024. Spencer Leniu, who has barely played any NRL in 2024 after serving an eight game suspension for being racist, is on the bench. This is extremely on brand for New South Wales, while showing a more modern approach as the Blues improve diversity by including unrepentant racists who aren’t white.
There’s a genre of player whose main career trait is to excel at club football and then find themselves completely adrift when the difficulty level is ratcheted up in State of Origin. This happens more to Blue than Maroon players because of Not Getting It, etc. Mitchell Pearce is the most obvious exponent, although there are plenty with one or two games to their names that found that club form was insufficient to carry them to the next level and weren’t able to firmly grasp the fairytale magic that the 1995 Maroons, 2006 Adam Mogg or the 2020 Lee cousins had in spades. Of the following Blue debutants, some (or all) will almost certainly fall into this category: Dylan Edwards, Zac Lomax, Joseph Sua’ali’i, Spencer Leniu.1
An out of form (and I thought, recovering from a poor 2023) James Tedesco is still a threat that would concern me while no one has ever worried what Dylan Edwards is going to do with a line break. Dropping Tedesco and Koroisau for the crimes of being experienced, trying hard and playing well is inexplicable2 and hands the Maroons an enormous advantage.
Which Billy Slater seems intent on squandering.
David Fifita was not selected to play for the Maroons and it is not clear why. The Maroons are already short at least three brand name forwards in Gilbert, Fa'asuamaleaui and Flegler. Leaving one of the Queensland’s best at home under those circumstances is not only negligent, it is a dereliction of duty.
While this is primarily about Fifita’s non-selection, putting Selwyn Cobbo on the bench with Harry Grant and only two forwards to start a Valentine Holmes that’s been as effective in 2024 as he was as a wide receiver in his zero game NFL career, is equally baffling but marginally less enraging.
These decisions can’t be based on the eye test. The Cowboys are both awful and inconsistent and still managed to get more caps than any other NRL club, begging the question of exactly what are these guys watching? The Titans are bad but immediately got better on Fifita’s return from injury and get better still with the more minutes he plays. This is not rocket science.
It’s a shame that I have fallen behind on my stats collections because it would be trivial to demonstrate Fifita’s numerical superiority under almost any conditions, especially against the likes of Jeremiah Nanai and J’maine Hopgood. Fortunately, League Eye Test has already eviscerated the donkeys that bray Fifita is lazy or doesn’t do what they think he should, even when he does.
If backflipping on the Roosters is taken as a sign of an unserious player, as the rugby league establishment seems intent on rallying around Nick Politis’ feelings, then mass resignations are in order because it is evident that the highest level of decision makers are all simultaneously suffering from paranoid delusions of grandeur. And demanding resignations is restraining myself only because advocating for the decisive application of Mssrs Louis and Schmidt’s machine in writing would be considered criminally extreme.
David Fifita is good enough at rugby league football, and has proved it time and time again, that when fit, he could punch you in the face, sleep with your wife and kick a puppy and you’d still be obliged to select him for the Maroons.
The only thing that’s left is ego. Perhaps sitting next to Freddy and the Eighth has warped Slater’s self-perception because when a coach says, “Watch him closer,” I hear Seibold, not Bennett.
Putting aside the archaic notion that some sort of selection committee could be used to stop coaches from disappearing up their own assholes, if Billy Slater thinks that vanquishing Brad Fittler to the dustbin of history is a sign of mastery of the dark arts of rep coaching3, that he can outsmart not picking the best, I’ve got bad news. Michael Maguire does not seem to be shaping up as Magnus Carlsen but Slater has barely shown himself yet to be Hans Niemann.4
Irrespective of whether Queensland wins or loses this series, the result won’t obviate my point. Naturally, the case will be much more obvious with a series loss than a 3-0 maroonwash, especially if the Blues run wild through the middle of the field by turning the Hopgoods and Nanais of the world into jelly, as happens and most frequently when Queensland feel like they’ve got it all figured out.
We’ll have to wait and see - that Blues team really sucks - but even in a three game, two team, annual series, bad process outs itself eventually. Just ask Brad Fittler.
Thank you for reading The Maroon Observer
BMD finals
Regular readers will know that the BMD Premiership has been one of my favourite parts of the sport this year but unfortunately, my diversions from rugby league aligned with the finals. I still managed to find time to watch the games on delay but not with a notetaking level of attention that I normally would.
Norths 36 defeated Burleigh 12. I think this is what it looks like when the Bears finally run out of troops. To wit, here’s a great story about #14 Nadia Windleborn from last year but she’s only just graduated from under 19s and had three appearances in the seniors this season. Fullback Mia Barber looks all of 12 (she’s 20). Chelsea Lenarduzzi and Chante Temara were the only two big names for Burleigh in a game that they never really looked in the contest for. The Devils accelerated away with ease in the latter part of the second half, dominating possession, metres and completions.
Mackay 22 defeated Western 4. Similarly, the Cutters never broke a sweat against the Clydesdales. The Toowoombans had a few NRLW-calibre players (Aiton, Hancock, Reeves and now Georgia Sim) but were missing the big names, all out for Origin, while the Cutters have gotten through their season relying mostly on top quality Cup Guys, which is the essence of sustainable success at this level of the sport.
Mackay 16 defeated Norths 6. The Cutters played their Sareeka Mooka card twice, with the big forward running two great lines, one for her own try and the second a few minutes later to set up Alisha Foord to punch through the line from dummy half. Those three plays were enough to put the game out of Norths’ reach. The sides played out a second half in which the only points came from a Kayla Sheppherd penalty goal. The Devils needed the steering hand of Jocelyn Kelleher at halfback. The few opportuities afforded in attacking position were not entirely squandered but were not sharp enough to make an impact. Fullback Montaya Hudson, is already a name floating around with a bit of promise and I thought was one of the best on ground for the Devs.
While it wasn’t a classic finals campaign, it felt like a classic season of footy. As a part time Norths supporter, I should feel more aggrieved about the final result but there’s a lot to like about that Cutters team. It bodes extremely well for the coming Cowboys season that you can upgrade with Kirra Dibb, bring back Emma Manzelmann, move Makenzie Weale over from the opposition, add in Fran Goldthorpe (I assume she’s still coming?), etc on top of a team that is already playing this well. It’ll be interesting to see if Banu, Mooka, etc can get on top of the level required in the NRLW.
In the trivia, this is the first time that a minor premier has actually won the QRLW grand final and the Cutters’ premiership (the club’s first senior title since 2013) continues the alternation of Burleigh / North Queensland / Burleigh / Mackay. I look forward to our congratulating our 2025 champions, the Burleigh Bears, but whether 2026 stays in Mackay or goes elsewhere in NQ, we’ll have to wait and see.
Intermission
I was pretty well tuned out in Noosa last weekend (the run went much better than the previous, thanks for asking), so the rest of this newsletter is a little stale.
If you’re a Titans fan looking for something to keep your high from Sunday going, I’ve got bad news. Not only did I not watch the game, I see no need to now and certainly won’t be wasting half an hour putting thoughts to paper about it. You’re going to have make do with one of the other newsletters that regularly writes about the Gold Coast Titans.
Normal service resumes next week.
Drugs I mean, something else that is not legally actionable
For no particular reason, and absolutely not because of the loser energy emanating from somewhere in Sydney’s east since the backflip nor threats to blow things up, it is worth nothing that cocaine, MDMA, weed, heroin, fentanyl, etc are on WADA’s in-competition prohibited substance list. While the night before is not considered in-competition, the metabolites aren’t out of your system by midnight. Out of competition, it’s a free for all, although the NRL’s additional drug testing overlay would have some jurisdiction.
Whether narcotics should be on the WADA list, I’ll leave as an exercise to the reader. We can argue about the efficacy of the anti-doping regime to achieve its stated aims and/or to serve as a public relations exercise for a general public whose attitudes to doping and drugs (note: to be treated as two separate categories) do not seem to be not aligned with the mores of professional athletes, celebrities and other powerful people (MAGIC ROUND COCAINE BUST), but that’s beyond the scope of this newsletter. Subscribe to
instead.While most drug-drugs are not performance-enhancing, or are performance-enhancing in a very limited set of circumstances, it would also be dangerous for someone stoned out of their mind or coming down from amphetamines to be behind the wheel of an F1 car or to have a rifle. Precisely where rugby league fits in that scope, I couldn’t say, but the risk is primarily of a PR nature than that of safety or the integrity of competition.
I am confident that given the mental capacity of most players, the complexity of the whereabouts scheme and that almost no one in elite rugby league gets hit with a doping violation, this suggests either everyone is very clean or someone isn’t doing their job (Bronson Xerri excepted).
However, it is funny that a guy that got hit with a fine for racially abusing a random person is defending the honour of a guy who racially abused a fellow player and a guy who has been caught on camera doing drugs before, and the club that employs them all. What a disaster. It’s a tough day to be Jayden Nikorima.
James Hardie is back
I’ve started a post looking at the sponsors behind the sport at least three times but haven’t managed to find a killer hook, and then the momentum, to pull it off. It’s a big topic that requires a bit of nuance because I don’t think “mining and gambling is bad, actually” is all that interesting.
Then again: Parramatta Eels ink new four-year deal with former sponsor Hardie.
They know people can google “James Hardie asbestos”, right? Given mesothelioma affects an almost exclusively working class demographic, having James Hardie inject its money into a traditionally working class sport (again) is extremely gross:
Parramatta is in the longest premiership drought of any club — 37 years and counting — while for James Hardie, the decades following the Eels’ golden years have been spent dealing with the consequences of its prolonged asbestos compensation saga.
To this day, it continues to compensate its former workers and other sufferers by way of a multi-billion dollar fund that guarantees current and future payments to those battling mesothelioma and other asbestos-related illnesses, caused by the company’s building products which it stopped producing in the early 1980s. [ed - lol, the point is that they were in fact very reluctant to do this]
But Sarantinos wants to assure Parramatta fans the renewed sponsorship deal will be a fresh start for both parties.
“This is an opportunity to write a new chapter in the history of the partnership,’’ he said.
“It’s obviously important for us all to acknowledge the past, but I think we’ve gotten ourselves very comfortable that Hardies is a very different company now to what it was then. It’s a hugely successful company, both in Australia and abroad. It prides itself on the safety of its products, whilst also still continuing to take care of the people that were affected by the issues of the past.”
Yuck.
The Eels were clearly expecting some sort of blowback but I doubt it was barely felt (hard to gauge these things without social media). It will arc up again in the first few rounds of next season and then it’ll go away with the next insane thing that the NRL cooks up. Fingers crossed for another drug scandal!
In the meantime, a wholesome Australian corporate citizen can launder its reputation through the NRL, like a commercial version of Jack de Belin or Matt Lodge.
Is it the worst sponsorship deal in the sport? I’d say it’s pretty close.
Egregious: James Hardie and any other companies knowingly poisoning workers (bonus points for reluctantly/refusing to pay compensation), anything owned by a non-Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, anything associated with crypto, NFTs, AI, the tech rot economy, other obvious scams
Very actively making the world worse: mining (e.g. Cowboys and Bravus partnership a whole new ball game), oil and gas, lobby groups for same
Somewhat actively making the world worse: fast food, alcohol, gambling, those Marvel jerseys
Passively making the world worse but deeply enmeshed in daily life: automotives, financials, legacy media (News Corp a level above?), property developers
About 80% of sponsors but probably 20% of the revenue: everyone else
Where you want to stick the line above which it all sucks, I’ll leave up to you.
Somebody’s got to pay the player’s salaries and they’ve got mortgages and families to look after. You’ve got the yuppie Nuremberg defence on one hand and there’s no ethical consumption under capitalism on the other. Good luck with that.
Upcoming Slate
With the BMD Premiership wrapped up, the Broncos and Titans on bye, the watch guide is looking a little thin on the ground for opportunities.
NRLM - Dolphins vs Raiders at Kayo, Saturday 7.35pm
A lot of analysis of the Dolphins’ season to date falls in the trap of using last year as a framework for working out what they are. It’s clear at this point that the Dolphins are 80% chance of beating bad teams, 50/50 against teams on their level and about 10% of beating the heavy hitters. The Raiders fall into the ‘their level’ category but the Phins are only missing Tabuai-Fidow and Kaufusi, and have a more than capable replacement in the former’s case, so should make this a pretty good showing in front of the Redcliffe fans. Tip: Dolphins
QRLM - Wynnum vs Bears at Kougari, Sunday 2.10pm
A first versus fourth battle sounds impressive until you realise that there’s only three wins separating first from thirteenth in the competition as it stands. Still both the Bears and Seagulls have seven wins to their names, the latter ahead on bye points. It also takes some mental work to remember the Bears are with the Broncos now, so this becomes a fixture in the Broncos Bowl. I like the look of the Seagulls lineup more than the Bears for reasons I will be able to articulate better once I’ve caught up with the competition again. Tip: Seagulls
NRLM - Roosters vs Cowboys at SFS, Sunday 4.05pm
The Roosters are going to turn the Cowboys into mince meat. James Tedesco is going to personally see to it that he scores a hattrick. This game gets three stars because you get the quote-unquote pleasure of watching Sydney City go to work. Sorry. Tip: Roosters
(Tips 17 / 31)
Watch Guide
Weather - Brisbane: Saturday 14 - 22 isolated storms; Sunday 10 - 20 light rain; Gold Coast: Saturday 15 - 23 rain; Sunshine Coast: Saturday 14 - 21 isolated storms; Rockhampton: Saturday 15 - 23 cloudy; Townsville: Saturday 19 - 27 mostly cloudy; Port Moresby: Saturday 26 - 29 scattered thunderstorms; Pootown: Sunday 11 - 16 wind and rain.
Notes
Ezra Mam is a king: Standing strong: How Mam's warrior mindset finds its voice
Inside the Magic Round meetings that saved PNG’s NRL bid from collapse with a bizarre addendum from the PNG security minister: “Genetically, Melanesians mature at a later age - like a fine wine,” Tsiamalili said. Righto.
AJ Brimson got the Tino bag. Aaron Schoupp departs Titans for somewhere in Sydney and BMD Premiership duo bolster Titans NRLW squad. Georgia Sim and former Bronco Ngatokotoru Arakua come in for Destiny Mino-Sinapati, Ivana Lolesio and Chantay Kiria-Ratu, who are all out for the year.
Assistant coach John Cartwright to leave the Broncos at the end of the year
Good stats: Why you should believe in the Cronulla Sharks this season
NRL clubs set for $2m a year windfall as part of PNG expansion plan. This is a little disingenious. The clubs get the extra money anyway, by virtue of their being a ninth game each round, and not as part of the PNG package or from government funding. Any expansion team should deliver an extra couple mil to the existing clubs.
Tweed Seagulls crowned premiers in undefeated Mal Meninga Cup season
We’ve hit the over on coaches fired and its only round 12. The two coaches I specifically provided context for are done.
Brisbane Tigers announce new CEO. Mitch Cook comes down from Mackay.
Hunters Announce Schedule Change: Saturday Matches Moved to Sundays
With Norths’ defection to the Democratic People’s Republic of the Dolphins, the Magpies debuted Harry Walters, of the Ipswich Walterses, in Cup a few weeks ago. This brings us one step closer to a second generation of multiple Walterses on the field for the Broncos. In doing some follow-on browsing, I found out Billy Walters is a qualified carpenter. People contain a multitude.
Nickelware etc will return next week.
Olakau’atu will probably be fine but find himself axed if the Blues lose the series. I’m surprised Cam McInnes has taken this long to get selection in a team now captained by Jake Trbojevic. Out of the six, I’d guess Lomax is going to struggle the worst.
The number of articles that purport to explain the changes but do nothing of the sort is monumental.
Which broadly runs something like: pick the best players, motivate them and put them on the field to do their jobs.
He can get upgraded to Ian Nepomniachtchi if this is a ruse to hand Maguire an early series win so the NSWRL extend him and then Slater takes the next three.