Welcome to The Maroon Observer, a weekly newsletter about rugby league, Queensland and rugby league in Queensland.
A shallow dive into the 2025 NRL season
The start of the season feels like yesterday and 10,000 years ago simultaneously. Somewhere between having kids and the pandemic, my concept of time has been irrevocably broken. But at the start of the season, I did deep dives on each NRL team and a thing I like to do at the end of the season is briefly recap where it went right and where it went (mostly) wrong. This is part keeping myself honest and part recalibration.
Newcastle Knights. They were expected to be poor and were poor. As hinted at by the advanced metrics, this was the worst attack in the league and it wasn’t particularly close, except to Jamayne Isaako’s personal points tally.
Gold Coast Titans. The Titans’ baffling roster mismanagement continues afoot and possibly accelerating to some sort of existential singularity where the concept of rugby league will collapse in on itself on the South Coast. It is all on Josh Hannay to unpick this mess.
St George Illawarra Dragons. Maybe your playmakers will be OK? They were not. Only Souths’ makeshift starting playmakers had a worse return in Wins Above Reserve Grade and the Dragons’ got similar results to the spooner Knights.
South Sydney Rabbitohs. The injury crisis was already bad in March and expected to rule them out for the year. Unexpectedly, Bennett didn’t really get anything out of the rest of the squad and the results (but not the media’s critique) reflect that.
Wests Tigers. Jarome Luai probably gets the Tigers off the floor of the competition? Mission accomplished. There’s still a long way to go though.
North Queensland Cowboys. I thought that if the Cowboys posted the kind of season they had, that Payten would be gone. That North Queensland are rallying around him for at least the first few weeks of next season is mildly baffling, along with many other recruitment decisions made over the years. The defensive flaws hinted at were exposed by plenty of teams and the pre-season mooted solutions had varying levels of effectiveness (Derby was so-so) and prescience (Dearden is indeed a starting half for Queensland). Notching this up as a miss, mostly because it’s so hard to pin these bastards down, as demonstrated by each issue of the Bovine Bulletin.
Parramatta Eels. Took a flyer on this and it was way off the mark, except for Dylan Brown’s departure which was plain to see. Ryles will still be employed by Magic Round next year. Interestingly, I deliberately overlooked the sims, which were projecting a decent season for Parra, and went with the noise, which was projecting a spoon. In the end, we got the performance of the latter and then former within the one season.
Manly Sea Eagles. Wanted them to be bad and they were bad. Seibold seems perpetually on the precipice of being fired and they can’t rely on Trbojevic bailing them out anymore. Great stuff.
City of Moreton Bay Dolphins. I’m just going to quote myself: “Another season of survival, to set the bar and to have the organisation coalesce into what its going to be seems the minimum. The finals seem possible if Woolf gets comfortable quickly in the big chair, the roster finds a groove and avoids the injury plagues of the last two years.” They copped the plague and still managed 12-12. They are consistently missing that last piece that pushes them into the finals.
New Zealand Warriors. I was pessimistic about them making finals but I outlined the upside risk scenario for the Warriors, which they managed to hit on. Perhaps more surprising was not the finals qualification but that they managed to rise so high before being “derailed” by two (2) injuries.
Sydney Roosters. The season was clearly going to hinge on spine injuries and it did. I did not have Hugo Savala anywhere on my radar and Walker’s absence meant that a team that couldn’t defend (City conceded more points than any other top eight team) also had no attack. The Roosters outperformed my gut instincts but underperformed the projections, so was wrong both ways.
Canterbury Bulldogs. The metrics picked up the Bulldogs’ elite defence but the rest of the metrics thought the Dogs would be crap. I equivocated and thought they might be OK. Turns out they were mostly good but for some overtinkering with the lineup that brought them undone later in the season. Their defence deserted them as a result and then they enjoyed a wonderful straight sets exit.
Canberra Raiders. Had no idea what to expect. Didn’t expect what we got.
Penrith Panthers. I predicted that they would erode away, rather than collapse immediately, and not necessarily starting in 2025. By the midpoint of the season, it looked a lot like collapse but they pulled themselves together and it was neither. Chalk up another good season for the Panthers and probably another premiership.
Cronulla Sharks. The Sharks were projected as the second best team which I took as to mean they would be one of the last handful left standing. While their play through some of the season was weak, Cronulla were generally in the better half of teams. They finally started to pull together something resembling second best team in the league in the finals.
Melbourne Storm. “Just ink them in for another preliminary final now and flip a coin to see if they’re going to make the grand final.”
Brisbane Broncos. We won’t be reviewing how extensively wrong I’ve been at every point in the season. We’ll be moving on.
Programming notes
Hello, this is the final weekly newsletter for the 2025 season. The amount of news-news turns down to a dribble and the amount of focus on the actual football ratchets up. You don’t need me to preview the NRL grand finals and you don’t need me linking to a thousand human interest stories. Feel free to take back that 15-20 minutes a week of your time.
But that doesn’t mean The Maroon Observer is done for the year. You are still owed a match report from the Queensland Cup grand final, a season recap for the Cowboys under the Bovine Bulletin, a season recap for the Broncos under the Pony Picayune and two Stats Drops (ETA TBC).
After that, there may be an off-season newsletter, as I tidy a few things up that you may find interesting (e.g. an end of 2025 update to The Dataset), clear out the drafts of the borderline crazy stuff and/or if something major happens (SEQ4 announcement??!) but I will mostly keep out of your inbox until 2026.
In the meantime, I hope you enjoyed the newsletter this year. It’s been a lot of work but I don’t feel as stretched as I have in previous years and am looking forward to 2026. Thank you for reading and subscribing, especially those of you who chose to financially support me in this endeavour. Your money has:
Bought two new, much more efficient laptops
Covered my tickets to rugby league games and the cost of premium 4K Kayo
Paid off my mortgage
Now you might think that there’s no way the two dozen or so subscribers could cover the cost of all that, especially the Kayo, but the thing is that subscriber money is so efficient, it can be used to pay for things three or four times over.
Wait, I’m being told that’s not how money works and I still very much have a mortgage.
Enjoy the run to the holidays and the break. See you next year.
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Around the grounds
Tigers 20 defeated Pride 10 (W). I heard the theme music from The Terminator throughout this game. The backbreaker was a run of three tries in ten minutes just before half time in which the Tigers, twice off back-to-back Sareeka Mooka misjudgements. While the Pride were game, this was all very inevitable.
Bears 18 defeated Dolphins 16. Burleigh played a strangely undisciplined first half and didn't make much of the binning of Zach Miles. Say what you like about the Dolphins, and I have, they turn up ready to compete. They carried that attitude through the game, ready to topple the giant, then as I was penning the eulogy, Zac Miles made an insane aerial play that skittled two of his teammates and cost them the ball right on the goal line. That is the second part of this week’s intermission. The Bears score about 60 seconds later and win the game.
Knights 34 defeated Titans 20 (W). I thought if Gold Coast went to the sheds down 10 or 12, given the absolute deficit of possession, that wouldn't be the worst result and they might surf back into contention as possession swung back. Of course, the Titans conceded another try on the siren, went in 18-0, which is practically insurmountable, and then conceded more points after the break. There was a comeback in garbage time but Newcastle had this one under control.
Sharks 24 defeated Cowboys 18 (W). The stats give a reasonable account of this game in that it was close and the Cowboys just getting edged 11-8 on the errors is probably what cost them the win. North Queensland can at least hold their heads high that they found their ceiling and its up there with the best of the second tier. Makenzie Weale had an interesting game, scoring a try and getting completely ghosted on the Ellie Johnston try, a long with some missed tackles and a couple of errors.
Sharks 32 defeated Raiders 12. How many times did Canberra win that 20 point loss in a home elimination final? Playing a hybrid of craps and caveman ball could only take the Raiders so far. That place it took them to was two finals losses, a straight sets exit and a Sharks Viking clap in your own stadium. Great stuff. See you next year.
Bears 24 defeated Magpies 12 (W). I tuned in at 20-8, which it turns out was the widest margin in the whole game, but the Magpies were clearly out of answers at that point and ran out of time to put anything like a real comeback together. This was entirely expected from a club who have been one of the best teams in the comp in two of four seasons but have not won a finals game, while Burleigh alternate premierships with the North. Paitai double noted.
Devils 18 defeated Wynnum 16 (M). Just as we were trying to square how the Seagulls had pulled this off, we got a Norths masterclass. With about four to go, Wynnum’s Tuilekutu loses the kick backwards and gets tackled just in front of his own goal line. The Devils turn up the heat, only allowing 30 metres on the set. Madden can’t decide whether to run or kick on the fifth, so does both. Norths start their set on their 40 and bash it down to the 20 with a good run from James Flack feeding off Sean O’Sullivan. The ball ends up with forwards on the fourth and the attack looks messy, which is enough to make the Seagulls’ defence blink. The play dies with Ahearn on the 20. O’Sullivan and then Gagan see the numbers on the Gulls’ left side and get the ball out their quickly, sending Kaho over for the match winning try. That’s just how they be.
Panthers 46 crushed Bulldogs 26. Who could have seen this coming? Me, three weeks ago: “The Storm are going to crush this team in week 1 and the Panthers will exact a biblical revenge and atomise them in week 2.” We’ll see if they learn anything from this. I’m not buying the Panthers panic based on them having the motivation to smash a team that laid down in front of the train.
NRLW shallow dives
Sensing that you are getting sick of hearing me talk about my own opinions, let’s do this quickly:
Broncos: Good, yes. Contending, yes. What genius.
Cowboys: Get a look at finals, tick.
Titans: Overestimated their overall ability given the player outs but still had them mentally pegged for a finals spot. Thought the youth coming through showed some promise.
Roosters: Contender, yes. Obviously, or perhaps less so given Aiken’s absence for most of the season.
Warriors: Definitely lacked experience and so did not deliver anything close to commonly held expectations. But they weren’t terrible. Another for next year.
Sharks: Better on the attack and not quite as tight on the defence but Chantay Kiria-Ratu has really come into her own.
Eels: Nearly made the finals, which I consider surprise on the upside for a team that was looking at a pre-season spoon. Should be properly competitive next season.
Raiders: They turned a horrifying start into 3-8 and second last place. I still don’t know how any of that happened. Chaotic and severely underwhelming.
Dragons: The non-brand name players did not offer enough to make St George Illawarra relevant.
Knights: “Good but not contending” was an underestimation of what Newcastle can put together. I think they might have a few more tricks up their sleeves.
Bulldogs: Avoided the spoon but finished with a terrible points difference. A fortunate team with a 3-7-1 does not bode especially well for the next season when mean regression is added in, unless there is significant roster improvement.
Tigers: Looked terrible, were terrible. I still feel bad about the crack about the BMD-ass bench options. Coach got fired, coach got hired.
Intermission
Pictured: standing up and cheering for Norths again this year.
I was literally just thinking “boy the Dolphins don't give you much” and then they play three pin bowling with their own players.
Sunshine Statewide
Some nothing news:
The Brisbane Broncos have agreed to an affiliate partnership with the Sunshine Coast Falcons for the 2026 and 2027 seasons.
The partnership is in addition to the Club’s existing agreements with the Burleigh Bears, Wynnum-Manly Seagulls and Souths Logan Magpies.
The structure of the partnerships means NRL squad members won’t play for the Falcons, nor will the Sunshine Coast Club send players to the Broncos on train and trial deals during the pre-season.
So it means, insofar as the senior statewide comps are concerned, very little. The Broncos logo will replace the Storm on the jersey and that’s it.
The Falcons didn’t add much:
"Of course we would have loved to have NRL feeder players within the deal, but we respect the current affiliation’s [sic] that the Broncos already have in place with Burleigh, Wynnum and Souths. A fourth affiliation would have just diluted the feeder player pool to each club even further. We will focus on making our Falcons roster, pathways and coach / staff development as strong as possible over the next few years," Falcons CEO Chris Flannery said.
We respect our rivals’ right to benefit from players that we are not allowed access by our new partner. Thanks guys.
Nothing from the Tigers yet but my guess is that they will fly solo.
Interestingly, the Storm also sold off netball’s Sunshine Coast Lightning:
Sunshine Coast Lightning has announced a change in ownership with Global Sports Management who will become the new licence holder beginning 1st October 2025.
Between the Falcons and Lightning, the Storm have been a fixture on the Sunshine Coast since the mid-2010s and in the space of a few months, that’s been put in the bin, left for the Broncos and Dolphins to fight over the rugby league scraps.
I'll give you three guesses who bought the Lightning:
Global Sports Management co-owners, Justin Pascoe and Lee Hagipantelis, said it is a privilege to officially join the Sunshine Coast Lightning family.
The Wests Tigers’ very own gruesome twosome have redeployed themselves to the Sunshine Coast because running a hard boiled noir detective agency and getting de-registered for being bad at cheating aren’t interesting enough when there’s an opportunity to drive another sports franchise into the ground.
The Storm going all in on Victoria is typical management brainrot. Funny to watch these dinguses all dive into netball or esports or baseball and then get back out again just as quickly. If they're not focussing on core business, they're diversifying by growing the business’ presence in different sectors. If they're not implementing a management matrix, they're streamlining reporting lines. Give it a decade and the Storm will change tack again. I don't think this means anything in particular sportswise but worth noting if the Storm e.g. go off a cliff after huffing their own gas for too long.
None of this has any relationship to the end product, which is kind of the point. I blame the racist part owner Brett Ralph but I have no idea if this is his idea or not.
Hotseat
Whoops, missed this in last week’s marathon newsletter: Knights appoint NRL Head Coach. It’s Justin Holbrook! He’s back. In blue and red form.
Considering the defining feature of his Titans tenure was the repeated entries in this Wikipedia table (I count four) as opposed to driving the franchise off a cliff, I am not surprised to see Holbrook get a second chance. Whether Newcastle offers a better launching pad for his second career attempt remains to be seen. On paper, this is a worse job than the Clydesdales.
His problem will be managing expectations. The Knights will not want another spoon but the roster is in extremely bad shape. Dylan Brown is not a saviour. Kalyn Ponga kind sucks. Those two already seem unlikely to get along. Other than a bright spot here or there, the rest of the playing group isn’t worth much. Turning that into even what Adam O’Brien was able to deliver (four finals appearances and one spoon in six seasons) will be challenging.
Good luck to you, Mr Holbrook. You are going to need it.
Upcoming Slate
Storm versus Sharks, Friday 7.50pm, Melbourne
In the space of a season, I’ve gone from a position where the Sharks are deserving of respect, to one where they are deserving of ridicule and back to respect again. All it took was two comprehensive, physical finals performances. Was that there the whole time? Maybe I should watch the non-Queensland teams more often. There’s a pretty good chance, even without Hazelton, that Cronulla can roll the Naarm Latte Boys through the middle. That Melbourne rotation is not really scaring anyone. The Sharks’ outside backs are comparable, if not superior to the Storm’s, and the only deficit they face is in the playmaking roles. Does this then hinge on Nicho Hynes not going to water in a big spot? We know Grant, Munster, Papenhuyzen and Hughes aren’t, although the latter two are at risk of re-injury, and there’s only so much they can do if Cronulla’s defence is stout enough. It is very much the prove it or lose it part of the season and I wonder if the little nagging question marks we’ve all had over the Storm through the year are going to bear fruit now, or if I am capitulating to recency bias. Tip: Sharks
Keep an eye out for a match preview from
.Tigers versus Bears (W), Saturday 2.05pm, Redcliffe
Getting a read on the Bears’ formline is challenging. They finished the regular season with a draw against the Falcons and a loss to Wynnum: not great. They started finals by belting the living crap out of Norths and then a less comfortable but controlled win over the Magpies, flipping the round 2 result. The Bears have the same record as the Jets but while Ipswich’s points difference was -4, Burleigh’s was +82, easily the third best in the competition. I guarantee Deleni Paitai will score a try but I don’t know if there’s anything more bankable than that about this side.
Easts have won every game this year. The Tigers have been calm and composed as they systematically dismantle the opposition. It is safe to say they are good, very good. They will start this game as favourites. This is the culmination of four years of gut punches, starting with a 70-0 loss to Burleigh in round 1 of 2021, and hard work. The onus is on Burleigh to demonstrate if they are up to the task. Destiny awaits. Tip: Tigers
Bears versus Devils (M), Saturday 4.05pm, Redcliffe
My natural assumption is that the Devils are going to win this game because I’ve sat through this exact scenario three times in the last four years and that’s exactly what happened. That both teams come into this having had nearly identical preliminary final experiences - last minute 18-16 victories - only makes me want to lean toward the familiar. For two teams that play relatively similar styles, even if I think the Devils may have a crafty scheme edge, and have two lineups that offer similar production, I am tempted to circle the halves: Hamilton/Rogers versus O’Sullivan/Ahearn. Who will overplay their hand? Who will panic? Hamilton has lost two QCup grand finals while Rogers has won one. Ahearn has three wins and a loss nearly a decade ago and O’Sullivan adds another state title with the ‘22 Panthers. I trust O’Sullivan/Ahearn as the firm to keep their heads. Tip: Devils
Roosters versus Sharks (W), Saturday 7.45pm, Poopsville
The Roosters are going to win this game. Tip: Roosters
Broncos versus Knights (W), Sunday 1.15pm, Suncorp
At the risk of being a huge bummer, it is my duty to point out, for the third or fourth time this year, that the Broncos haven’t won a finals game since the 2020 grand final. This is exactly the kind of game this roster blows year after year. Messed the bed in ‘24 against the Sharks, choked against the Roosters in ‘21 and missed the finals altogether after an unfortunate accident against the Eels in the final round of ‘22. Brisbane acquitted themselves well in 2023 against Newcastle in a loss but that’s shaping as the exception and they still lost. Sure, the Broncos beat the Knights by 30 points in the regular season, and everyone’s available and on deck including Tamika Upton, and the Broncos have been beating the piss out of everyone bar the Roosters, but that 30 points becomes an uncomfortable 8-10 point margin in the finals, which is just within grasp of that tricksy Jesse Southwell, Yasmin Clydsdale and so on. I cannot stress enough how likely it is the Broncos blow this. Tip: Broncos
Broncos versus Panthers, Sunday 4.05pm, Suncorp
At the risk of being a huge bummer, it is my duty to point out that the Broncos have only beaten the Panthers once since covid. It was the first game of 2023, with a final score of 13-12. Some of the really bad Broncos teams got close, and did a better job than their more competent contemporaries, but some of those games were also Panthers-style blowouts (12 to 20 points). Brisbane, even up 16 in a grand final, have never really been in the same sport as Penrith since 2020. You have to wind back to week 2 of 2017 to find the last Broncos win over the Panthers in the post-season.
Losing Pat Carrigan and Billy Walters is not ideal and devastating, respectively, but enough guys have come back in that Jaiyden Hunt is now in the reserves, which is a huge win. The shuffle to accommodate everyone is now the major concern. Going back to the spine that was responsible for the soggy part of the season is not encouraging, less so with such little game time between the protagonists. Hopefully everyone’s seen enough of the last couple of weeks to keep it simple and set it up for Walsh and let him do his thing. The Broncos can win this. Tip: Panthers
(Tips 43.5 / 75 in 2025; 48 / 92 in 2024)
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Read this
Rugby League Writers: 3 Things From NRL Finals Week 2
The Sportress: Six, Again: Obits and Next Steps
Notes
The real question of season 2025: what the absolute fuck is going on in Telstra's marketing department?
The next question: why the fuck would you re-sign Jaiyden Hunt?
I didn’t have the energy for Radley and the Roosters. Take your pick of a) zero tolerance for drugs, quite a lot of tolerance for violence against women, b) actually some tolerance for drugs if it gives them commercial leverage with a player, c) anything implying Nick Politis “put aside his ego” or that they can apply for cap dispensation because it's for “integrity”. Spare me.
The AFR is reporting that the Perth Bears have landed Budget Direct as a major sponsor, presumably taking them from the Dolphins. What will this mean for mildly annoying spokesman, Dwayne Bennett?
This week in PNG: Australia attempted to get PNG to sign a military alliance, which I think explains some of last week’s grand final theatrics, but PNG knocked it back. Even they have some sense of due diligence and process before upending 50 years of foreign policy. Instead of signing a treaty, a “communique” was agreed. In the least surprising turn of events, China urges Papua New Guinea not to exclude other countries after it signed 'Pukpuk' communique with Australia.
We love some resources news here at TMO: ADNOC-led consortium abandons $A28b Santos takeover bid and Coal ‘crisis’: hundreds of jobs cut, mine mothballed
And we really love the intersection of resources and PNG: I have no frame of reference for parsing these politics but you may recall Wapu Sonk as the guy dumped from the PNG NRL board for corruption. Well, he was managing director of Kumul Petroleum and now Kumul Petroleum has suspended Sonk. This caused protests in Hela (up the Wigmen), leading to the closure of a road. It’s going to court. Good luck to you, Mr Sonk.
Happier news: Why Alaska’s salmon streams are suddenly bleeding orange. You’ll be shocked to learn its climate change.
Thanks for this season's posts Liam! They have great reads each & every week. I really enjoy your mix or pointed analysis and humor.